Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 312246 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
345 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL GET PUSHED UP INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING.

FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE TYPICAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 MPH. BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS, WE WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL POSE A THREAT TO LAKE RECREATION AND
FIRE WEATHER, AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS. AS FOR BLACK ROCK
CITY, LOW VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT FESTIVITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TROUGH PASSAGES LATER
THIS WEEK, THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLING
TREND AND BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW WARMING TOWARD LABOR DAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE FIRST TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE
COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES (GENERALLY MID-UPPER TEENS FOR WESTERN NV-
EASTERN MONO COUNTY, AND 20-25% FOR WESTERN MONO-TAHOE BASIN AND
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV). THERE IS STILL A SMALL POCKET OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP NORTH OF CEDARVILLE,
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE FOR
THURSDAY.

THE SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR SATURDAY
FOR THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. SO FOR NOW WE WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY WITH WEAKER ZEPHYR BREEZES ON FRIDAY, THEN
PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP A LITTLE MORE AND DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TO MAINLY THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER 60S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPS AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER AND EVEN BRING PRECIP TO SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80,
BUT DUE TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE SOURCES WE WILL GO
WITH A MIDDLE GROUND TYPE OF TEMPERATURE TREND FOR NOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS OF MID 80S IN WESTERN NV BY MONDAY. A WEAK BAGGY
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH
INTO LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS
TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED
OVER KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA.

TYPICAL ZEPHYR TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OREGON AND IDAHO.
THIS WILL INTENSIFY THERMAL GRADIENTS BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR THE WESTERN BASIN, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH, HUMIDITIES
ARE AN ISSUE FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITH
TEMPERATURES EASING DOWN ON WEDNESDAY NORTH OF I-80 AND NO LARGE-
SCALE DRY SLOT IN MODELS, HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT
15-22% NORTH OF A RAVENDALE TO FOX MOUNTAIN LINE. SOUTH OF THERE TO
AROUND HIGHWAY 50 IN THE BASIN, HUMIDITIES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY LOW (IN
THE LOW TEENS ON AVERAGE) TO BRING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE TAHOE BASIN AND DOWN INTO MONO-MINERAL
COUNTIES, HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVER 30 MPH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA SO NO WATCH/WARNING IS EXPECTED
THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASED WINDS ALOFT MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING
FOR MID SLOPES BUT HUMIDITIES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGH
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

ON THURSDAY, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS AS SOME
MODELS BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SIERRA FRONT AND BASIN AND RANGE
AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMIDITIES MAY RISE ABOVE
15% FOR MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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