Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 172140
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
240 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND,
KEEPING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE
AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE TRANSPORT
FROM THE KING FIRE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD OF HIGHWAY 50 INCLUDING
THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY. REDUCED VISIBILITY AROUND 2-5 MILES AND
DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES INTO MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  THE LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS MORE WESTERLY
AND WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT ACROSS INTO WESTERN NEVADA.
COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAINLY NORTH ACROSS
LASSEN COUNTY AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS
WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WILL HELP KEEP SMOKE MAINLY WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL COOL BUT
REMAIN NEAR SEASON AVERAGES WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SIERRA. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO BETTER THAN AVERAGE FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. A CLOSED LOW SITTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL OPEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE-LOVELOCK LINE. THE 12Z EC IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION ALONG A DEFORMATION ZONE SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS IS A DIFFERENT
FROM ITS 00Z RUN AND FROM ALL OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS, SO HAVE
LARGELY IGNORED THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHILE THE LATEST RUNS ARE KEEPING THAT
SAME HIGH WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALLOW A DEEP
TROUGH TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY THERE IS MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE TROUGH SOLUTION, SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK AROUND 30-35
KTS WITH RIDGES GUSTING AS HIGH AS 55 KTS, POSSIBLY LEADING TO
TURBULENCE ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA. THE LARGE SMOKE PLUME
FROM THE KING FIRE IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL EL DORADO
COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY IN
NEVADA. AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE WEST, SMOKE IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN POUR INTO THE TRUCKEE MEADOWS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 3
AND 4 PM. IMPACTS WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH WIDESPREAD
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 2 TO 5 MILES. THE
HARDEST HIT TERMINALS WILL BE KTRK AND KRNO WITH HIGH END IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM 3-4 PM UNTIL 8-9 PM.

A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE REDUCED UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTHWEST OF A KTRK-GERLACH
LINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THURSDAY AND BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST,
SHIFTING THE SMOKE PLUME SOUTH. THE SMOKE COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT
KRNO, KCXP, KTVL, AND KTRK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND TAKE THE SMOKE PLUME INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
     IN NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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