Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 032307 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS
PRETTY BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS TODAY TO THE EAST BRINGING CLEAR SKIES, AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW. WE DID REMOVE THE MENTION OF ANY CLOUDS FOR
TONIGHT AS THE DRY AIR IS ALREADY WORKING INTO THE REGION AS SEEN ON
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT, THIS WILL
INCREASE THE EAST TO WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SIERRA. WINDS
WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND THE
TAHOE BASIN AND OVER THE SIERRA CREST, BUT THE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX
WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT EAST WINDS. EAST WINDS AND DRY AIR TONIGHT
SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY FOG FORMATION IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS, SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISING STEADILY EACH DAY WITH SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES
BY THURSDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR WED-THU-FRI
BASED OFF LOCAL RENO AREA POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE RESEARCH. HOON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. ONLY SMALL CHANGE WAS TO
RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAKDOWN BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIALLY WETTER PATTERN TO
DEVELOP. THE LACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND GET SWEPT UP IN SYSTEMS
HEADED FOR THE WEST COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IMPACTING THE WEST COAST AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK
(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE), BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE EXACTLY IT WILL MAKE
LANDFALL (LOW CONFIDENCE). WEISHAHN


&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS THERE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEISHAHN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









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