Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 300107 AAA
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
607 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
A band of showers and storms has developed as anticipated,
although the timing is a bit faster than earlier anticipated. The
band currently extends from near Westwood ESE through Reno/Sparks
and into NW Nye County. The heaviest showers and storms are from
Portola to Reno/Sparks. Rainfall up to 1/3" is possible with these
storms along with small hail. Rain will be snow above 7000 feet
with some light accumulation. The intensity will permit some breif
accumulation on road surfaces so those traveling over
Donner/Echo/Mt. Rose summits should be prepared for slushy roads.

Have updated the forecast to increase pops through tonight based
on latest trends. HRRR overall is handling the basic idea and
trend of the convection, but it has been too slow. Latest run
seems to be catching up. Still, it adds confidence to the band
holding together as it moves south. This could be more of an issue
for Mono County overnight with higher elevations and a couple
inches on highway 395, especially over Conway and Devils Gate
Summits. Wallmann

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A quick moving low pressure system will drop into western Nevada
later today bringing cooler conditions, showers, and gusty northeast
winds through Saturday. Showers and a few thunderstorms may continue
Sunday and Monday, with more unsettled weather possible later next
week.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 110 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Main change to the ongoing forecast was to issue
Lake Wind Advisories for Saturday for Lake Tahoe, Pyramid Lake,
and lakes in Mono County, including but not limited to Crowley.

We are still forecasting a quick moving inside slider to drop into
western Nevada this evening and into Saturday that will bring
gusty winds, colder temperatures, and a quick burst of rain/snow
showers. Main concerns are for gusty winds and light snow
accumulations, especially for visitors and fisherman participating
in opening day (fishmas) in California.

The main cold front will push past the Interstate 80 corridor
between midnight to 4am and bring a quick burst of rain/snow
showers. Snow levels will quickly be forced down to all valley
floors with the cold front, but snow is unlikely to accumulate in
western Nevada unless the front stalls out (low probability at
this time). Roads may be slick for the early morning, with little
to no accumulation. But as the front drops south into Mono and
Mineral counties a quick burst of snow accumulations up to 2
inches will be possible between 4am- 6am, especially along Highway
395.

Gusty winds will also accompany this cold front, with brisk
northeast flow expected to create choppy conditions on area lakes
Saturday. Valley wind gusts 30 to 40 MPH will be possible while
Sierra ridge gusts will be in the 60-80 MPH range. Lake Wind
Advisories are in effect, so if you have plans on area lakes late
tonight into Saturday be prepared for choppy conditions.

Low pressure system will hang back over the Great Basin on Sunday
and Monday which will keep slight chances for showers across the
Sierra. Light, east flow will also keep temperatures on the cool
side through the remainder of the weekend. -Edan

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

For Tue-Wed, the eastern Sierra and western NV should have somewhat
of a break between systems but residual moisture and southerly flow
could result in light showers for the Sierra and also for northeast
CA (north of Susanville) and northwest NV (north of Gerlach), with
snow levels likely staying above 8,000 to 9,000 feet MSL.

For Thur-Fri, forecast confidence is increasing that an offshore
trough will slowly move west across CA/NV. However, there are still
important model differences on the track of the upper Low. Little
change was made to the ongoing forecast reflecting a gradual
increase in showers and a slight cooling trend for the second half
of the week. JCM

AVIATION...

West to northwest flow increasing surface-aloft this afternoon ahead
of cold front dropping south across the region. Surface wind gusts
to 20-25kt and ridge top gusts to 40-45kt are expected ahead of the
cold front. Winds become gusty north to northeast winds after the
cold frontal passage and continue Saturday with gusts 25-30kt at
terminals and 55-65kt on ridges. Expect moderate turbulence this
evening through Saturday especially over and near the Sierra.

A cold front and band of showers will reach KSVE-KWMC line by late
afternoon and then spread across the Tahoe Basin and west central NV
this evening, finally reaching Mono-Mineral Counties after midnight.
A brief period of MVFR cigs/vsby will accompany this band of showers
with terrain obscurement along the eastern Sierra slopes overnight
into Saturday morning. Some light snow is possible for the Sierra
terminals although accumulations on runways are expected to be less
than an inch. JCM

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday NVZ002-004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday CAZ072-073.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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