Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 311102
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
302 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND ON LAKE TAHOE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KICKING THE SOUTHERN NEVADA LOW EAST TODAY. A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
RIDGES THIS MORNING WEAKENING LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
EXPECT WARMING SUNDAY AS WARMER TEMPS ALOFT MOVE IN WITH LIGHT
FLOW. HOWEVER, THE LOWER VALLEYS LIKELY WON`T WARM UP QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE RIDGES, AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN.

FOR MONDAY, THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS. AT
THIS POINT, WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT, BUT JUST HOW WET IT
WILL BE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER REMAINS IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT,
WE EXPECT A LIGHT RAIN EVENT IF IT DOES PAN OUT, AS THE SHORT
WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH IS WEAK. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK. FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY
NIGHT WE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND
GERLACH, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THE LATEST
GFS AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO STREAM DEEPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WAS GENERALLY DRY SO WE DID
NOT MAKE ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE 7000 FEET. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL,
ALTHOUGH DROPPING OFF A BIT FROM MONDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, RIDGE AXIS SHARPENS A BIT WHICH WILL LIFT
THE PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER NORTH, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS CA-NV. THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT WILL GET. INVERSIONS SHOULD
BE WEAK SO UNLESS A THICK OVERCAST PREVAILS ALL DAY, HIGHS EACH DAY
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER
50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS.

BY NEXT FRIDAY, CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER TO REACH THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, THE BEST MOISTURE IS STILL
TARGETED FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SOME DECENT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES, BUT
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE TAHOE BASIN.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MOIST FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SPREAD
PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NV
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS MORE LIKELY TO  HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY
SUBTROPICAL, SO EVEN IF PRECIP DOES REACH THE SIERRA IT WOULD FALL
MAINLY AS RAIN. EARLY PROJECTIONS OF SNOW LEVELS KEEP THEM RATHER
HIGH, GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK AROUND 8500-9500 FEET MSL SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
HAS PRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT KTVL AND KMMH. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE DAY TODAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA SHOULD LIMIT
FZFG FORMATION THIS MORNING AT KTRK, BUT SOME BRIEF SHALLOW FZFG
COULD SHOW UP AROUND SUNRISE. FOR TONIGHT, THE RIDGE WINDS WILL
DECREASE, ALTHOUGH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
DURATION AND COVERAGE OF FZFG AT KTRK IF ANY DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH NE-E WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY, WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS OF 55-70 KT WILL RESULT IN TURBULENCE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING, WITH THESE WINDS DECREASING LATER TODAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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