Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 210546
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST OF OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS IT PUSHES EAST INTO OUR REGION. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING.


AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE
COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH
DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST.

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING.
POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/SK



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