Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 010918
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY. DRY
AND STABLE AIR RETURNS ON TUESDAY. WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION SINCE MIDNIGHT. CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION RESULTING IN HAZY
SKIES AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI. THIS DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATED EARLY
THIS MORNING A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55 WEST. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
RELATIVELY FAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND ITS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO
INTRUSION OF SAHARAN AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT PR/USVI ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE...AROUND 20 KT...WILL LIMIT THE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE. THE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL SPREAD OVER USVI/PR
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LIMITING ONCE AGAIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TRADE WINDS WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE SECOND
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15
KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10-20 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF WESTERN PR WHERE SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  89  80 /  10  20  20  40
STT  90  78  89  81 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11


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