Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS
STREAM NORTH OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED THU
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDY AND WET TONIGHT IN WINDWARD AND HIGHER ELEVS.
DRYING INDICATED THROUGH THE DAY FRI AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
PER LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT WHICH SHOWS DRYER AIR UPSTREAM
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS AND UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ERODING BY
MONDAY AS INFLOW OF SRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS
RESULTS IN MOISTURE DEEPENING AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY
WITH THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND NOW INDICATE LESSER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN LOW LVL CLD WILL CONT WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA BTW THE NRN LEEWARDS AND PR WITH EMBEDDED PASSING -SHRA/SHRA
AND FEW TCU. EXPECT BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES
TIL AT LEAST 18/22Z. PRD OF MVFR IN SHRA/LOW CIG WITH SFC WND GUST
UP TO 26 KTS WILL REMAIN PSBL MAINLY WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS. BRIEF
MTN TOP OBSC WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTN RANGE TIL
17/22Z. LOW LEVEL WNDS MAINLY FM E AT 15-20 KTS BLO FL150...BCMG FM
N-NW AND INCR W/HT ABV TO MAX WND OF AROUND 60 KTS NR FL400. FM
18/03Z-18/12Z ANOTHER SURGE OF SCT-BKN L/LVL CLDS W/EMBEDDED
ISOLD-SCT SHRA IS FCST TO AFFECT PARTS OF ERN PR...TJSJ...TISX AND
TIST.

&&

.MARINE...EAST WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS UP TO 9 FT IN ATLC WATERS. BELIEVE SEAS WILL BE MORE LIKE
IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE BUT WILL KEEP 6-8 FT FOR CONTINUITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  85  76  85 /  60  60  40  40
STT  77  85  77  86 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD
     TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY
     FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM AST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

09/64





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