Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 260518
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1018 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.Synopsis...
A few showers...especially at higher elevations through Sunday
morning. Snow levels will above 6500 feet where a couple of
inches of snow are possible. Drier weather expected by Sunday
afternoon. The brief break into Monday will be followed by
potentially more wet weather mid next week and again late week.

&&

.Discussion...
Fairly active late afternoon/evening over Norcal with severe
thunderstorms in the Redding and Anderson areas between 5-6 pm. A
wind gust of 60 mph was reported at Redding airport along with
quarter size hail near Anderson. There was also lots of small hail
reports including accumulations of 1-2 inches around Shingletown.
Shower activity is now generally over the Higher elevations and
foothills...associated with moist up-slope southwest flow. Have
update the forecast to lower valley pops into the isolated to
scattered range. Surface winds have also relaxed significantly and
ended the wind advisory/high wind warning at 9 pm. Snow continues
above 6500 feet and another 1-2 inches will be possible.
Otherwise...forecast is on track.

.Previous Discussion...
After the main frontal passage this morning, scattered showers
with thunderstorms and high winds continue to impact much of
NorCal. Snow levels dropped down to pass levels earlier than
expected so have adjusted the forecast to reflect snow levels
around 6500 ft from this afternoon and into early Sunday. Snow
accumulations up to 10 inches are possible on Mt Lassen and up to
4 inches possible over the higher Sierra passes.

Winds have been very strong in the Northern Sacramento Valley.
Redding and Red Bluff airports were reporting sustained winds of
23-39 mph with gusts up to around 50 mph. We also got a report
near Burney of downed trees due to the gusty winds. Wind
observations in the Southern Sacramento valley (including the Sac
Metro region) did not strengthen as much as previously thought so
have removed that area from the Wind Advisory. Also cancelled part
of the High Wind Warning across the Western Sierra Slopes...south
of Plumas County.

A line of training thunderstorms has been persistent in Western
Shasta County for most of this afternoon and will continue into
the evening. This line crosses Interstate 5 between Redding and
Lakehead so drivers should be extra cautious in this section of I-5.

Thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of the valley
through this evening. We currently have a Significant Weather
Advisory in effect for part of Butte County valid through 4 pm as
small hail, dangerous lightning, gusty winds are possible.

Due to the winds, rain and snow...we continue to emphasize that
motorists should use extra caution while driving. There have been
several reports of vehicle spin-outs and accidents due to weather
conditions.

Winds will weaken by tonight and precipitation will also diminish.
Lingering showers over the mountains could continue bringing snow
and rain/snow through Sunday morning. Expect drier and milder conditions by
Sunday afternoon. High temperatures this weekend will be in the
mid 60s to low 70s in the Valley and mid 30s to low 50s in the
mountains. Monday and Tuesday will be drier and warmer with
ridging dominating. Although there could be a slight chance of
some rain across far Northern CA...generally north of
Marysville...on Tuesday. JBB


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Amplifying ridge forecast over the western US during the middle of
next week as another trough deepens over the eastern Pacific. This
will likely keep all but the far northern portion of the forecast
area precipitation-free into Thursday. Forecast confidence
decreases later in the week as significant differences develop
between the models in the handling of the trough as it moves onto
the west coast Halloween and next weekend, though it appears much
of the region will see a chance of precipitation sometime next
Friday or Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...
Scattered showers will continue Overnight. Winds will generally
be less than 10 mph and ceilings above 8000 feet.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







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