Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 291058
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
658 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday]...

Expect VFR conditions area-wide with only slight chances of
SHRA/TSRA this afternoon. Confidence remains too low to include in
TAFS, but TLH/VLD/ECP have the best chances for any activity this
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [434 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Deep layer ridging remains in place across the region today.
Mid/upper level dry air will keep shower and thunderstorm coverage
more isolated, with any activity that develops remaining weak with
shallow updrafts. Thus, POPs will generally range from 20 to 30%
across the forecast area today, with higher chances across eastern
half of the area. Afternoon highs will rise into the lower to middle
90s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Tropical Depression Nine will be tracking across the southern Gulf
of Mexico tonight and while the westward track is forecast to
eventually turn north on Tuesday and northeast on Wednesday, the
bulk of the impacts should hold off until the long term. In the
short term, moisture increases across the CWA, particularly on
Wednesday as PW values across the southeast Big Bend area exceed
2.2 inches. Overall will see an increase in PoPs from 20-40
percent on Tuesday to 30-70 percent on Wednesday with the highest
values across the southeastern Big Bend area each day. So impact
wise for the short term is mainly limited to an increase in PoPs
across the southeast Big Bend.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Focus of the long term is Tropical Depression Nine which is
expected to become a Tropical Storm before the long term. 00z GFS
and ECMWF are in a bit better agreement than we have seen the
past few days with the system making landfall in the Big Bend to
Nature Coast area in the Thursday/Thursday evening time period.
ECMWF is about 12 hours faster (Thursday morning) than the GFS.
Despite the better agreement between these two models, the
Canadian is an outlier with bringing a stronger system in further
west of the other two models. Official NHC forecast is near the
GFS and ECMWF with taking the center into the Nature Coast. Much
of the CWA though is in the five day cone and thus it is important
to remember not to focus on the exact landfall point as we are
still a few days away and there is still a good bit of uncertainty
in the track and intensity forecast. This point is reinforced as
throughout the life of this system, we have seen big differences
from model run to model run and between different models. **At
this point, folks should be closely monitoring the system, making
sure their hurricane kit is up to date and reviewing their
hurricane plan.** Impacts from the system will largely depend on
the track of the system but potential impacts include heavy rain,
gusty winds and an increased rip current risk. The TC should clear
the CWA by Friday, given the current forecast.

Behind the TC, scattered storms will persist through the weekend.
A slight decrease in PoPs is possible Sunday into Monday as drier
air pushes in from the northeast.


.MARINE...

Winds will fluctuate between Small Craft Exercise Caution and
just below this threshold through mid-week. By mid-week though,
winds will increase as Tropical Depression Nine approaches the
area, likely as a Tropical Storm. As a result, winds are expected
to increase for the Wednesday night to Thursday night time period.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with this system and folks
should continue to pay attention to future forecasts.


.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersion values are expected across portions of the Big Bend
of Florida and southwest Georgia this afternoon. Otherwise,
hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days as RH values will remain above critical thresholds.


.HYDROLOGY...

Significant rainfall amounts are not expected for the first half of
the week. For the second half though, Tropical Depression Nine is
expected to impact the Big Bend area and the west coast of Florida.
While the 11PM track forecast on Sunday from NHC suggests the higher
rainfall amounts would be south of the CWA, given uncertainty in the
track forecast will still need to monitor for potentially heavy rain
across mainly the Big Bend area. Any deviation in track will affect
the location of the heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   95  76  93  76  91 /  30  10  30  20  40
Panama City   94  77  89  77  88 /  20  20  30  20  50
Dothan        92  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  20  10  20
Albany        95  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  20  10  30
Valdosta      94  74  92  73  91 /  30  10  30  20  50
Cross City    91  75  90  74  87 /  40  10  50  30  80
Apalachicola  91  77  89  77  87 /  20  20  30  40  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Fieux


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