Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 290023
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
823 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...

No significant changes to the previous forecast below appear
necessary. Convection has diminished for the evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [724 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Convection associated with the outflow boundary is pushing across
southeast Alabama and will continue to push eastward into southwest
Georgia. In addition, showers have developed across the Florida
Panhandle. Given this, have adjusted higher PoPs a little more
eastward with this afternoon update. SPC Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE
values around 3000-4000 J/kg, however shear is minimal. Will have to
closely watch for storms to pulse up and produce some gusty winds or
small hail. Cannot completely rule out a severe storm, but would be
isolated. Convection should quickly diminish tonight after sunset
and thus limited the forecast to 10% PoPs for the first half of the
night. By early morning though, convection from overnight moving
across the southeast could push into the southeast Alabama and given
this, have included low end PoPs (20-30%) across the northwest
portion of the CWA.

With the low level moisture overnight, expect low clouds again with
patchy fog to develop late tonight. This will also help to limit
cooling tonight and thus expect lows in the lower 70s Monday
morning, a few degrees above normal.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The short term will mark the beginning of a fairly active period as
a powerful, stagnant upper level low sets up over the Hudson Bay in
Canada as a part of a bigger Omega Block in the northern jet stream.
A series of shortwaves rotating around the periphery of this low
(likely across the Ohio River Valley), influencing the weather
across the Tri-State region. Increasing sub-tropical moisture will
prime the atmosphere for increased shower and thunderstorm activity
through the duration of the period. The Storm Prediction Center has
portions of southeast Alabama and Southern Georgia in a marginal
risk for severe weather Monday and Tuesday, as there will be plenty
of instability in place across the region. The limiting factor will
be shear, as forecast bulk shear values will generally remain below
30 kts, with the highest values remaining north and east of the
area. Nonetheless, hot, humid conditions with elevated shower and
storm chances are expected through the period. Afternoon highs will
range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with overnight lows in the
60s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Active weather will continue through the long term period as the
aforementioned upper low remains in place across eastern Canada.
A broad area of surface high pressure east of the area will
continue pull moisture into the region through the end of the
week, with a weak shortwave in the southern stream of the jet
traversing the area by late week/next weekend, continuing the wet
and active pattern through next weekend. Shower and storm chances
will be highest during the afternoon and early evening hours
(peak heating). Afternoon high temperatures will generally run in
the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...

IFR CIGs are expected overnight and into the morning hours. Patchy
fog is also possible mainly near TLH and VLD. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are likely for DHN and ABY in the mid to late
afternoon hours. A few storms could be strong to severe. Winds will
be light and southwesterly.


.MARINE...

Southwesterly winds between 10 and 15 knots will prevail each
afternoon through Tuesday evening with seas of 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night, winds will turn northerly remaining around 10 knots
before decreasing during the day Wednesday. Generally light winds
and seas will persist through late week. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase from mid-week onward.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our
area from Monday through the remainder of the week. However, any
heavy rain should be localized and short-lived. As a result, no
widespread flooding concerns are anticipated and rivers are
expected to remain below flood stage at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  91  70  91  70 /   0  20  10  30  20
Panama City   74  88  74  88  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
Dothan        72  88  71  88  69 /  20  50  20  50  30
Albany        73  90  71  89  70 /  10  40  20  40  30
Valdosta      71  92  71  92  69 /   0  10  10  30  30
Cross City    70  91  70  92  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  73  86  72  87  72 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...McDermott
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...McDermott
HYDROLOGY...Fournier


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