Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 291724
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
124 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...
VFR conditions will prevail through this evening at all terminals.
Guidance is not as persistent with fog as the past few nights,
however, MVFR fog is possible at all sites between 09-15Z after
which all terminals should return to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1013 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

As of 14Z the fog has lifted for most of the area. The cold front
is still stretched across central Alabama and Georgia and a few
showers and thunderstorms are possible in the far northeastern
part of the area this afternoon. Forecast remains on track.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

Surface and upper level ridging will be in place through Thursday
with warm and mostly dry conditions. Thursday night a deep upper
trough and associated surface cold front will approach and move into
our CWA with moisture and instability increasing ahead of this
system. A line of showers and thunderstorms will likely move into
our western zones late Thursday evening and spread eastward
overnight into Friday. This will be our best chance for widespread
rains, some heavy, in several weeks. Especially our western zones
where some models show QPF amounts ranging from 1-2". While the
rains will be welcome, this system will also bring with it the
threat for severe weather. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will
be possible as 0-6 km bulk shear values increase to 55 kts. However,
the limiting severe potential will be the marginal instability with
CAPE across our western zones Thursday evening generally 1100 J/kg
or less. These values diminish overnight increasing once again to
around 1100 J/kg Friday afternoon across the Florida Big Bend and
south Georgia. However, by that time, most of the convection is
forecast to have moved off to our east. Highs will be in the mid
80s Thursday and lower 80s Friday. Lows Thursday night will be in
the lower 60s.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Dry air will move into our area behind the front which is forecast
to stall across south Florida over the weekend. Aside from slightly
cooler night-time temperatures, daytime highs will continue at
above seasonal levels. The front will lift north as a warm front
across our area Sunday night in response to another developing low
pressure system in the southern Plains. This system will bring
another round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the next cold
front Monday into Tuesday. We will also have to watch this system
for the potential for severe weather but it too early to access
right now. Temps will continue above seasonal levels.


.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas are expected through Thursday, but could
reach advisory levels Thursday night through Friday as a front
and a line of showers and thunderstorms move through the
northeastern Gulf. Winds and seas will decrease late Friday and
remain fairly low through the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
relative humidity values remaining above critical levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

Showers and storms could produce heavy rainfall on Thursday night
and early Friday, and a second round of storms/heavy rain is
possible early next week. Flooding is not expected from Thursday
to Friday with thunderstorms likely moving quickly across our
area, but cannot be ruled out early next week with additional
periods of heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   58  85  64  82  55 /  10  10  50  50   0
Panama City   62  77  67  75  61 /  10  10  80  30   0
Dothan        59  85  62  80  54 /  10  10  80  20   0
Albany        61  87  64  81  55 /  20  20  70  60   0
Valdosta      60  87  62  82  57 /  10  20  30  50   0
Cross City    57  83  62  80  57 /  10  10  30  50  10
Apalachicola  62  76  66  77  61 /  10  10  70  50   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Weston
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Weston
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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