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175
FXUS62 KTAE 071133
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
633 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...

High clouds will move out of the region by mid morning and clear
skies are expected for the rest of the TAF cycle. Northwesterly
winds will be a little bit gusty today at times.

&&

.Prev Discussion [327 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
This morning, the low off the Florida coast will continue to move
out to sea as high pressure moves into the region. By mid morning
clouds will move out of the region. Today expect sunny skies and
POPs near zero. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Big changes are expected over the short term period as a large
upper low drops out of Canada and into the Ohio River Valley on
Monday. At the surface, a dry cold front will surge across the
region Monday afternoon. Breezy northwest winds will bring in a
dry and quite chilly airmass. High temperatures by Tuesday will
drop into the mid 40s across the northern zones and near 50 in
North Florida. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 20s
to near 30. 10 to 15 mph winds during the morning hours on Tuesday
will result in wind chills as cold as 20 degrees.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The chilly weather will continue into the first half of the long
term period. The upper low will begin to lift out into the
northeast by Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will build
over the region, which will put an end to the breezy conditions.
It`s during this time on Thursday and Friday mornings where low
temperatures could drop down into the mid 20s. However, given the
lack of consensus between the GFS/Euro regarding the placement of
the surface high pressure area, will keep the low temperature
forecast during this period in the upper 20s to near 30.

By Friday and beyond, the GFS has trended toward the Euro this
cycle suggesting that another cold front will move through the
region by Friday night into Saturday as the overall pattern across
the Eastern CONUS amplifies again. Obviously, there`s still some
spread between the GFS/Euro solutions out this far, but the
forecast was trended more toward the Euro solution. This results
in a temperature forecast Friday-Sunday that`s a little below
climatology for mid February.


.Marine...
As an area of low pressure strengthens off the Florida East Coast,
winds over the Eastern Gulf will increase to advisory levels
through this afternoon before diminishing tonight. On Monday
afternoon, a dry cold front will move quickly across the marine
area. Winds behind this cold front will increase significantly,
possibly to gale force. A lengthy stretch of gale force winds is
possible through Wednesday, before high pressure builds over the
marine area on Thursday, resulting in lighter winds.


.Fire Weather...
The next several days will be very dry. Red Flag Warning criteria
will not be met today since fuel moisture is still high and most
locations will be just above 30 percent relative humidity.


.Hydrology...
No significant rainfall is expected over the next seven days,
which will allow river levels across much of South Georgia and
Alabama to drop below action levels. However, down into North
Florida, flooding will continue for some time on the
Choctawhatchee and Apalachicola Rivers. The Withlacoochee River
will also be on the rise through the coming week.

On the Choctawhatchee, Caryville will crest this morning around 14
feet in minor flood stage. Further downstream at Bruce, moderate
flooding is expected to continue, with the river cresting near
15.5 feet on Tuesday afternoon.

On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola Rivers, releases from Walter F
George have been cut back considerably. Inflows from the Flint
into Lake Seminole will peak in the next 36 hours around 30kfcs.
As a result, it appears as though Woodruff will only be releasing
85kcfs just a little longer and decrease to around 70kcfs this
afternoon. Obviously, Blountstown will remain in flood for some
time, but the crest for this event around 21 feet will occur later
this morning, with the river dropping slowly throughout the
remainder of the week.

Over on the Withlacoochee/Little River system, Valdosta is
cresting this morning. Increased flows down the Little River will
approach peak levels late tonight into Monday. The combined flow
from these two sources will result in rises at the US-84 crossing
approaching 107.5 feet on Tuesday night, just below moderate flood
stage. Should this crest verify, the next downstream point near
Pinetta could approach flood stage late next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  36  62  34  50 /   0   0  10  10   0
Panama City   57  47  59  38  49 /   0   0  10  10   0
Dothan        57  37  57  31  46 /   0   0  10   0   0
Albany        57  35  58  31  46 /   0   0  20   0   0
Valdosta      56  35  61  33  49 /   0   0  20  10   0
Cross City    57  37  64  36  52 /   0   0  20  10  10
Apalachicola  58  44  62  39  51 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening FOR
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Gale Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening FOR
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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