Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 302014
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
414 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 9 PM ET THIS EVENING. INTERESTING EVOLUTION OF STORMS
TODAY WITH THE FIRST BATCH DEVELOPING IN A MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME THAT WAS FAIRLY UNSTABLE. EVEN WITH THIS FIRST BATCH
OF STORMS PROVIDING FOR SOME STABILIZATION, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA STILL INTENSIFIED MOVING
EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 20Z SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA ON A WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH SOME HEATING
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30KT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND MAINTAIN THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNSET. HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA-BREEZE REGIME
TYPE 5 KEEPING THE HIGHEST DAYTIME POPS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WEAKENS. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHETHER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY
MONDAY OR IF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APALACHIANS
(AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS) KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH UNSETTLED. FOR NOW, OPTED FOR A FORECAST CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH FEATURES POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE ECP/ABY
TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z. STORMS MAY APPROACH TLH IN THE EARLY
EVENING, LINGERING PERHAPS AS LATE AS 02Z. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THEREAFTER. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS BEFORE SUNRISE AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT DHN/ECP. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF ECP AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SO INCLUDED A VCTS GROUP AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND REDUCING WINDS AND SEAS TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MINOR RISES TO AREAS RIVERS AND
STREAMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST AREAS WELL BELOW ACTION STAGES, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   75  93  75  94  76 /  30  40  30  40  20
PANAMA CITY   79  88  80  89  79 /  30  30  20  40  20
DOTHAN        72  92  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  40  20
ALBANY        72  93  74  94  74 /  50  40  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      73  94  75  94  74 /  40  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    75  92  76  92  75 /  20  40  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  79  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY


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