Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 070042
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
842 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Lingering stratus continue to clear out of the forecast area, and
mostly clear skies should develop overnight. Light northeasterly
winds should fall below 5 mph overnight, and possibly become calm.
With dry air advection expected to coincide with clear skies and
light or calm winds overnight, temperatures should cool to near
seasonal normals by sunrise (compared to the slightly above normal
lows last night). We considered adding some patchy fog wording to
the forecast, based on some model forecast soundings. The models
that indicated fog potential were largely WRF or NAM based, and
these models can sometimes overstate fog potential in cases of
dry air advection. Therefore, we haven`t added any at this time,
although one or two spots could see fog develop closer to sunrise.
[Through 00Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail with light
.Prev Discussion [355 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The local region will be on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge
centered over the western Gulf. The ridge will flatten by Thursday
night as a shortwave drops SEWD from the Northern Plains to the
Midwest. Surface high pressure will build in from the north along
with a drier airmass with forecast PW`s dropping below 1.0" on
Wednesday. The persistent low level cloudiness should finally
erode on Wednesday. Low level winds will swing around to the east
Thursday bringing increasing moisture and clouds by afternoon with
only a slight chance of rain over the Big Bend coastal waters. Max
temps both days will be in the mid 80s. Lows will range from the upper
50s north to low 60s south Wednesday night and low to mid 60s most
inland areas Thursday night.
.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
An upper level trough will deepen over the eastern CONUS while
translating eastward Friday through the weekend. This will send a
surface cold front through our CWA on Saturday with a much drier
airmass filtering in Sunday through the first part of next week.
For now we see only a slight chance (20%) of rain on Friday and
Saturday with the approach and passage of the front. Despite the
frontal passage, temperatures will continue to be at or just
above seasonal levels through the period.
Northeast winds will be light to occasionally moderate through
Thursday before becoming light from the east Thursday and Friday.
Winds become offshore once again over the weekend as a cold front
pushes through the local waters.
Red Flag Warning conditions are not expected for the next several
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce has crested and the river level
will continue to decrease over the next few days. The river should
fall below action stage on Friday.
Elsewhere rivers remain well below action stages and with little or
no rainfall expected over the next few days, there are no flooding
concerns across the region.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 64 85 61 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 66 83 65 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 61 84 59 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 60 84 57 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 62 84 60 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 66 85 63 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 65 82 65 83 69 / 0 0 0 0 10