Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 201948
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
348 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A mid to upper level +PV anomaly can be seen as mid to upper level
cloud cover on satellite imagery moving from the central Plains into
the middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Ahead of it, along the
Ohio, Tennessee, and lower Mississippi Valley. This front will move
eastward through the period, crossing our forecast area overnight.
The frontal passage will not bring much in terms of chances for rain
overnight, with only a slight chance over our coastal waters, but
cooler and drier conditions will be on the way for tomorrow.
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The dry cold front will have cross the entire Tri-State region by
early Friday afternoon. Aloft however, the 850mb front will lag
behind a bit. This will allow a relatively sharp temperature
gradient to develop across the region with mid 80s in the
southeast Big Bend, and upper 70s across Alabama where diurnal
mixing taps into the cooler air aloft. With winds expected to
remain somewhat elevated overnight on Friday, expect lows to dip
to around the 50 degree mark for most inland locations, and the
upper 40s across Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia. The cooler
air aloft will cover much of the local area on Saturday, resulting
in highs in the low to mid 70s area-wide. The coldest night will
likely be Saturday night when winds calm and dry air is firmly in
place. Expect lows to fall into the low to mid 40s across all
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Low amplitude ridging will build into the local area just south of
the departing trough through Tuesday when a more zonal pattern
will take over for the remainder of the period. High pressure
will remain established at the surface, with easterly flow
returning around mid-week. The easterly flow may bring a slight
chance for showers, but for the most part, rain is not expected in
the extended forecast.
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...
As a cold front crosses the area late tonight and early tomorrow,
northwest winds will pick up in DHN first, then ECP and ABY, then
later Friday morning at TLH and VLD. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the period, though there may be a brief period of
MVFR cigs (2000-2500 ft) just ahead of the front.
Beginning late tonight, winds and seas will climb to advisory
levels, remaining that way through Saturday morning. Thereafter,
moderate northeasterly winds will continue through Sunday, before
calming through next week.
A cold front will move across the region tonight with much cooler
and drier in place for the weekend. Relative humidity values on
Friday afternoon look to drop to near 30 percent, which isn`t low
enough to justify a fire weather watch in Srn Alabama. RH values
will be even lower on Saturday and Sunday afternoons, possibly in
the low 20 percent range. However, other necessary red flag
criteria are unlikely to be met.
Little if any rainfall expected over the next seven days. Therefore,
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 64 82 51 74 44 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 66 78 55 73 52 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 60 77 47 72 43 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 63 79 47 73 43 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 62 83 49 73 44 / 10 0 0 0 0
Cross City 62 85 51 75 43 / 10 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 68 80 55 73 52 / 10 0 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
waters from Destin to the Suwannee River out to 60 NM.