Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 301201
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
MUCH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...The short term period will be marked by
warm and generally quiet weather today and Friday before a
transition to more active weather begins on Saturday. Early this
morning there is a chance for some low level clouds and possible
areas of fog in my far northeastern zones. However, An upper
level ridge will gradually build in strength as it slowly
progresses across Montana today with westerly surface winds and
warming temperatures dissipating morning fog. Only variable mid to
high level clouds are expected this afternoon through Halloween
night with temperatures warming to near record highs in many
locations Friday afternoon. Saturday marks a transition day as a
significant upper level trough moves inland along the entire west
coast of the USA. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the main
trough will bring increasing clouds and a chance for precipitation
across western portions of the forecast area. More importantly, a
surface low pressure system develops across southern Montana by
late Saturday afternoon with surface winds across north central
Montana becoming northerly allowing cooler Canadian air to begin
spilling into the region. mpj

Saturday Night through Thursday...A low pressure system begins to
move inland over the west coast Saturday bringing moisture and
chances for showers to the Continental Divide by Saturday night.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana Sunday,
lasting into early Monday for some places. Cold air associated with
this system looks to bring widespread chances of snowfall over
Central Montana Sunday night into Monday. Snowfall in the mountains
may be of significant accumulation. The system moves quick, exiting
east Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be seen over the
mountains. High pressure transits over the region Tuesday night
before unsettled westerly flow brings a chance of precipitation back
to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High temperatures will be
mostly in the 40s Sunday and Monday before warming back to near 60
by Thursday. Overnight low temperatures Sunday and Monday will be
below freezing in many locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure builds. Mid/high level
ceilings expected with light winds overall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  41  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  55  36  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  62  39  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  60  33  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  50  24  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  59  37  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  51  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  59  39  71  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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