Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 311023
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
423 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY SO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PRIMARILY SW MT AND ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS A FLATTEN RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION.
THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE IDEA OF AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT TROUGH TO DROP OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS FAIRLY SPARSE FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND AS THE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST.

THERE STILL ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
AFTER FRIDAY SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS WITH A GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. JK



&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW MULTIPLE WEATHER
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. CURRENT
RADAR TO THE WEST SHOW SHOWERS AND HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE THESE SHOWERS PASSING THIS MORNING BUT ALSO KEEP
SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER DUE TO A MIX OF CHINOOK NEAR GLACIER AND IN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY IF
NOT CLOUDY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL
DOWNSLOPE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD OVERCOME THIS AND
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, SO THESE REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE PLAINS.


&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.GREATFALLS.GOV


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