Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 232345
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
545 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Updated Aviation Section

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Broadly cyclonic but mainly dry WNW flow
aloft remains in place over the region this afternoon with a weak
embedded shortwave moving into western MT to track east across
central/SW MT this evening. So far, only a shallow cumulus field
and scattered mid-high level clouds accompany this feature and
moisture and instability are fairly limited with potential for
only isolated showers and thunderstorms through early this
evening. Short range/Hi- res models indicate the best chance for
this activity will be along the US/Canadian border as well as
areas along and south of a line from Monida to Big Sky. Stronger
subsidence shifts east over the region tonight as ridging aloft
builds east into the Northern Rockies and MT and remains over the
region through early Monday. Dry conditions with warming afternoon
temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday. By late Monday the
upper ridge flattens some in response to weak shortwave energy
moving into the Western US. This may allow for some isolated late
day thunderstorm development, primarily over SW MT. Hoenisch

Monday Night through Saturday...Latest model runs continue to show
rather uneventful weather conditions for this period.  Broad high
pressure ridge over the southwest states will be the dominant
feature next week, with westerly flow aloft over MT.  A series of
weak Pacific shortwave trofs will move through the flow along the
US/Can border, bringing some scattered aftn/eve thunderstorms to the
Hiline and central counties Tues through Thurs. Still expect these
storms to be a mix of wet/dry types as accompanying moisture plumes
will have only moderate precipitable water values (0.5 to 0.7 inch).
Chances for precip decrease going into next weekend as the upper
ridge axis shifts westward to the Great Basin area and amplifies
northward into central British Columbia/Alberta. That will keep any
shortwave and moisture away from our region and also allow temps to
climb back into the upper 80s and low 90s on Fri/Sat, after being
mostly in the mid 80s during the first half of the week.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 2345Z.
West-northwest flow aloft will continue. Airmass remains somewhat
unstable and a few isolated evening thunderstorms are possible,
mainly across the north and over southwest Montana. Convective
activity will end by 06z with clearing skies. VFR conditions prevail
with MVFR conditions possible near thunderstorms along with gusty
erratic winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  87  53  90 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  50  83  52  85 /  10   0   0  10
HLN  55  89  58  92 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  48  87  50  91 /  10   0   0  10
WEY  39  76  42  80 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  48  84  51  88 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  53  85  54  90 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  52  83  55  88 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.