Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 281725
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1125 AM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today...The showers from this morning have moved east. The
airmass will generally remain dry although the extreme southwest
zones continue to have relatively high dewpoints. Weak instability
will develop over this area during the afternoon and showers or a
thunderstorm are possible. Updated to raise some temps across the
central and northern zones, raise some winds across the northwest,
and freshen POPs, QPF, and WX. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1725Z.
Westerly flow aloft and VFR will prevail through 18Z SUN. Breezy
to gusty SW-W surface winds across North-Central Montana will likely
subside shortly after 00Z SUN. A few -SHRA and TSRA may develop over
the mountains this afternoon and early evening. However, this
potential -SHRA and TSRA activity will likely not affect any of the
terminals. Jaszka

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /
Today through Monday...Upper trof continues to push east this
morning with showers lingering across portions of Hill and Blaine
counties. These showers should gradually end by midday as the flow
aloft becomes increasingly zonal this afternoon through tonight,
resulting in drier conditions. The exception will be southwest
Montana where a slight chance of afternoon showers and/or
thunderstorms will be possible. The flow aloft begins to become
southwesterly on Sunday as the next Pacific trof approaches
western Montana. Widely scattered showers are possible Sunday
afternoon over the plains while isolated thunderstorms may develop
over the high country of southwest Montana. Showers and
thunderstorms increase in areal coverage Sunday night as the upper
trof continues to push east. By Monday, models have a closed upper
low over northeast Montana resulting in widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms, along with breezy northwest winds. The
models are trending toward a faster exit of the upper trof and, as
a result, qpf values continue to drop from previous model runs. A
quarter to a half inch of precipitation is possible across North
Central Montana and the Hi-Line, less than a tenth of an inch for
southwest Montana. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below
seasonal averages today and Sunday but will drop 5 to 10 degrees
below averages Memorial Day.

Monday Night through Saturday...Forecast models now provide more
consistent solutions in moving the closed upper level low through
eastern portions of North-central MT by Monday night. This system
will produce widespread precipitation, mainly over central MT
continuing from Monday into early Tuesday. Total precipitation
amounts continue to trend lower, now ranging from around 0.2 to 0.5
inches Monday through Tuesday. There remain timing differences in how
quickly the system moves away Tuesday afternoon. A longwave ridge
amplifies over the western U.S. starting Tuesday night. This places
our forecast area in a dry and generally stable northwest flow
starting Wednesday and continuing through next weekend. Scattered
showers are possible under this ridge, mainly over higher terrain as
temperatures climb into the lower 80s. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  41  69  45 /  10  10  10  30
CTB  61  39  66  42 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  65  43  71  46 /  10  10  20  30
BZN  63  38  72  42 /  20  10  10  20
WEY  54  33  60  37 /  20  20  10  20
DLN  62  38  69  41 /  10  10  10  20
HVR  67  42  71  46 /  10   0  10  20
LWT  63  41  69  45 /  20  10  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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