Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 012153
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
253 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday night...A boundary between cold air in the
north and relatively milder air in the south will vacillate
over central Montana over the next couple of days. This will make
temperature forecasts in that area rather tricky. Tuesday
afternoon and night the cold air will finally spread all the way
through southwest Montana. A series of weather disturbances aloft
will move through a northwest flow aloft during the period and
bring periods of snow. A couple of disturbances will bring some
snow to the mountains tonight with isolated to scattered snow for
the lower elevations. For the lower elevations the best chance for
snow will be over northcentral Montana so have increased the
chances of snow there for late tonight and Monday morning. Monday
afternoon there should be a break in the snow but then another
disturbance combined with a surge of cooler air into the north
will bring snow to the north Monday night. Then Tuesday night the
cold surge mentioned above will move through southwest Montana and
combined with an increase in moisture will bring snow to southwest
and possibly central Montana. During the period snow accumulations
should be on the light side so am not thinking of any winter
weather highlights at this point but will continue to monitor for
any changes. As for the threat of freezing rain it does not look
like it will be warm enough to get freezing rain so have mostly
removed its mention from the forecast. Blank

Wednesday through Sunday...Following a cool morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound to near seasonal values as an upper level ridge
traverses the Pacific Northwest. Deep moisture on a strong
west-southwesterly flow will maintain chances for mountain snow,
increasing a bit on Thursday as a warm front lifts through southwest
and central Montana. Temperatures move well above average starting
Thursday and continue mild through the weekend. Model guidance
presents a possible back-door cold front moving into northeast
Montana on Thursday night with a slight chance for snow, but does
not appear to lower temperatures much in our northeast zones. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj/Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755z. Visible satellite reveals high level clouds crossing
the Continental Divide with deep moisture upstream to the west. VFR
conditions will prevail through the day, with mid-level CIGS and
possible mountain obscuration developing by evening. Widespread
rain/snow showers will develop tonight over the central and
southwest Mountains surrounding KBZN/KHLN/KGTF, with best chances
for a period of light snow at KBZN. Light snow will develop late
tonight with a weak warm frontal boundary generally along a line
from east of KCTB to west of KLWT. IFR conditions are most likely at
KHVR/KLWT by morning. Confidence is low regarding CIGs/VIS and
adjustments are likely. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  25  33  19  28 /  30  20  70  50
CTB  15  22  10  15 /  30  20  80  50
HLN  25  39  28  41 /  40  20  40  30
BZN  24  40  27  43 /  40  20  40  30
WEY  21  29  26  34 /  50  60  80  80
DLN  27  41  30  47 /  30  10  20  20
HVR  10  17  10  16 /  60  40  80  70
LWT  23  32  19  29 /  30  20  80  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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