Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 060539
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1038 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2015

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the update tonight as dry warm weather
looks to build into the area for the bulk of the short term
period. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0538Z.
There will be VFR conditions with no precipitation expected.
Ceilings will be above 15000 ft. Friday afternoon scattered clouds
from 8000 to 12000 ft MSL will develop. This layer of clouds will
dissipate Friday evening as scattered to broken clouds from 12000 to
15000 ft MSL develop over the plains. Westerly wind gusts 30 to 40
kts with local gusts to 50 kts can be expected over ridgetops and
along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front into Friday morning with
winds in that area diminishing during the afternoon. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 448 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2015/

Tonight through Saturday...The main feature over the next few
days will be a high pressure ridge over the West Coast. This will
keep the airmass over Central Montana dry and trending warmer. At
the surface, a low pressure trof will remain along the slopes of
the Rockies and this will keep brisk winds across the Rockies and
adjacent plains. A weak disturbance will move through the
northwest flow aloft this evening and this period should bring the
strongest winds across the Rockies. The surface pressure gradient
generally weakens, however, so do not expect damaging winds.
Several additional, weak disturbances will move through the
northwest flow aloft but with very little moisture available, the
region will remain precipitation free through Saturday.
Temperatures will trend well above normals Friday and Saturday.
Zelzer

Saturday Night through Thursday...Dry conditions with well-above
normal temperatures expected for Sun through Tues as broad high
pressure ridge along the West Coast drifts eastward toward the Great
Basin and Northern Rockies. Latest model runs indicate we`ll likely
see spring-like upper 50s to low 60s at lower elevations on
Mon/Tues, but generally stay below record-high range (mostly mid 60s
to low 70s).

06Z/12Z GFS model runs have backed off considerably from the
significantly colder solutions that were previously advertised for
Wed/Thursday of next week. While the latest GFS model still brings a
somewhat cooler low level airmass south into the region this period,
the upper level pattern is in much better alignment with the more
consistent ECMWF solution, depicting the upper level ridge
flattening and flow aloft generally remaining from the west. Have
therefore updated temperatures for the Wed/Thursday period with the
most recent model mean blend. This results in temperatures cooling
some Wed/Thurs, but remaining above seasonal averages.
Waranauskas/Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  31  54  31  54 /   0   0  10  20
CTB  30  53  28  51 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  30  56  33  57 /   0   0  10  10
BZN  22  52  27  55 /   0   0   0  10
WEY   9  42  14  46 /   0  10  10  10
DLN  24  54  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  26  55  26  51 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  28  49  29  49 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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