Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 300406
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
906 PM MST MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An increase in moisture will provide scattered to
numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through
Thursday. Drier conditions will return again by late next week and
into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry across most of Arizona with weak ridging across
southern tier states interrupted by a low in Colorado.
Precipitable water values range from about .7 inches in central
areas (including Tucson), to 1 inch near the New Mexico border.
Deeper moisture is noted over portions of West Texas and New
Mexico, and the 00Z KTWC sounding was already showing an
increasing easterly to southeasterly flow below 600mb that will
push some of that moisture back into our neck of the woods over
the next 48 hours.

A look at 00Z analysis and model data engenders confidence in our
current forecast package, so no updates this evening. Please see
the previous discussion below for additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
VFR through the period. Clear west to partly cloudy east with any
convection staying in New Mexico overnight. Increasing
thunderstorm chances after 31/19Z mainly east of KTUS. Winds
generally under 15kts through the period except for strong erratic
outflows near thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
spread farther west Tuesday followed by scattered to numerous
thunderstorms Wednesday before decreasing again Thursday. A drying
trend will then occur from west-to-east Friday into next weekend.
20-foot winds Tuesday and Wednesday will be mainly from the east
at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. Otherwise, 20-foot winds
will be terrain driven and less than 15 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...By late tonight into tomorrow the flow will
shift to an easterly or southeasterly set up, which will usher in
moisture from the east and thus a better threat for showers and
thunderstorms. Our best chance will occur Wednesday before
tapering off again Thursday and especially by Friday and into the
weekend and early next week as an approaching Pacific trough
pushes moisture back to the east again for only a limited threat
for areas along the New Mexico border.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Meyer/Mollere

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