Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 270401
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME
LOCALES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS VISIBLE ON IR OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WERE 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN DOUGLAS...AND 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN TUCSON. EAST
WINDS TODAY HELPED MITIGATE TEMPERATURES A BIT IN EASTERN
PORTIONS...BRINGING IN SOME COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL COOLING TO 55 IN
TUCSON AND 42 IN DOUGLAS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA SHOW A RATHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST...DESCENDING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT HARD PRESSED TO FIND A CLOUD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

UNDER A MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE FRIDAY...
EXPECT A BIG JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN TUCSON HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CRACK THE 90 DEGREE MARK...AROUND 13 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST PLACES.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN FLATTENING TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...BEFORE
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TAKE HOLD FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK. COOLER YES...THOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A NEW SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN OFF THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...
STAYING SOUTH OF THE STATE...BUT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SOME
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME CHANGES IN TIMING OR LOCATION COULD
CHANGE THINGS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/06Z.
GENERALLY SKC...WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE. POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME STRONGER THAN NORMAL SOUTHERLY WINDS...10 TO 12 KTS...AT
KTUS TONIGHT AFTER 27/11Z. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS COULD SEE A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN SFC WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS EXPECTED. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
IN MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM PASSES BY MONDAY...THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE DOMINATED BY INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDIER AFTERNOONS IN SE AZ ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE 28TH. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS
FOR MARCH 28TH AND 29TH.

LOCATION                   MARCH 28TH      MARCH 29TH
TUCSON INTNL AIRPORT       91 IN 1943      91 IN 1943
AJO                        97 IN 1988      93 IN 1943
PICACHO PEAK               92 IN 1988      93 IN 2004
NOGALES                    84 IN 1986      85 IN 1967
SAFFORD                    91 IN 1988      89 IN 1953
SIERRA VISTA               82 IN 1967      83 IN 2012
TOMBSTONE                  91 IN 1917      86 IN 1943
WILLCOX                    89 IN 1916      88 IN 1916
DOUGLAS                    85 IN 2012      85 IN 2012

THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE IN TUCSON IS APRIL 9TH.
HOWEVER SINCE 2000 THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE IS MARCH 29TH. SO BASED ON
RECENT HISTORY...THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE FOR
TUCSON IS RIGHT ON TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RH

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