Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 060356
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO PREVAIL FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. LATEST WV IMAGERY CLEARLY
DEPICTED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. SOUTHWEST OF ARIZONA...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR 30N/120W OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA. 06/00Z KTWC
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EXTREMELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH A PWAT OF
0.13"...WHICH IS ABOUT HALF THE VALUE COMPARED TO 12 HOURS AGO.
THIS DRY AIR WAS PRESENT ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE...WITH SEVERAL
AREA DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AS OF 06/0330Z. TEMPERATURES
WERE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WELL...WITH MANY LOCALES STILL IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S. THIS IS NO DOUBT DUE TO THE ELEVATED ELY WINDS STILL
AFFECTING THE AREA. BELIEVE AT THIS TIME THAT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 8-12 KT RANGE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY ADVISE THE NEXT SHIFT THAT
LOWS MAY BE TOO COOL. HOWEVER...IF WE GET AN HOUR OR TWO OF
RELATIVELY CALM WINDS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE PERIOD.
ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND AT 8-15 KTS EXPECTED THRU AROUND 06/15Z.
THEN...SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-24 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING
35 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF KTUS.
SPEEDS WILL EASE UP SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY TO 8-12 KTS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. 20-FOOT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH WITH STRONGER
GUSTS. THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SUNNY
SKIES OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRI. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW IN
COMBINATION WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS FRI. ALTHOUGH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE MET...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...WITH
FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER SPEEDS.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED VIA THE 05/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO
MOVE NEWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA SAT. GIVEN THE LIGHT QPF/S DEPICTED VIA
THESE SOLUTIONS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST-TO-NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON. BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF VIRGA OR SPRINKLES OCCURRING ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY GUSTY ELY/SELY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDDAY SAT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA WIDE LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EWD INTO NEW MEXICO. A NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL
PREVAIL SUN-MON IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICT LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR OVER SWRN NEW MEXICO MON
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MAINTAINED
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS TUE-WED.
SUNNY SKIES OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MAINLY
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
DEPICTED A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH ADJACENT THE WEST COAST VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF WAS MORE ROBUST WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA VERSUS THE GFS. EITHER SOLUTION YIELDED PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS NEXT THUR.

HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F OR SO WARMER ACROSS SE AZ
VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY MINOR DAILY TEMP
CHANGES SAT-SUN...THEN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL FOLLOW MON-WED.
MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON LOCALIZED WIND
EFFECTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS




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