Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 300951
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
250 AM MST FRI SEP 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A drying trend from the west will reduce the chance of
storms today, all but eliminating them over the weekend. A trough
will bring cooler air and a few showers back to the area late Monday
or Tuesday. High pressure will bring dry conditions and a rapid
warming trend the second half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar imagery early this morning continued to
indicate a few showers and thunderstorms across the far southeast
corner of Arizona east of Douglas. Latest models spread drier air
into most of the area by Saturday. This will limit the chances of
rain to far eastern sections by tonight. Thereafter, the drying
trend will end the rain chances for the weekend. However, this will
be short-lived as models pull moisture back into the area ahead of a
low pressure system entering the Great Basin around Monday. This
will lead to a brief period of rain chances Monday before the system
tracks northeast into the northern Plains on Tuesday. The system
will also usher in some cooler air, with high temperatures projected
to drop about 8 to 10 degrees from Sunday to Tuesday. GFS model
showed a dry westerly flow over the region Tuesday into next
weekend. High temperatures will recover to near seasonable readings
by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 31/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 6-10k ft AGL east of a KOLS, to KTUS, to KSOW
line, with FEW-SCT clouds at 7-11k ft AGL west of this line.
Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly east of KTUS thru 31/04z.
Surface wind less than 12 KTS thru this forecast cycle, with surface
wind generally WLY/NWLY during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur mainly east of Tucson through the early evening hours tonight.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected Saturday into the middle of
next week. 20-ft winds will generally be less than 15 mph through
Sunday, along with normal diurnal wind trends. 20-ft winds will then
increase on Monday and Tuesday of next week, as system moves across
the Great Basin.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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