Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 242100
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail into early next week. Breezy
to windy conditions will occur Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure
system approaches from the west. Expect cooler temperatures Thursday
in wake of the low pressure system. A modest warming trend will then
occur this weekend, but daytime temperatures will remain at least a
few degrees below normal.
.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system approaching the region will
continue to bring gusty winds to the area, especially tomorrow. This
wind in combination with dry conditions had prompted a red flag
warning for Wednesday afternoon and early evening in far southeast
Arizona. Please refer to the fire weather section in this product
for more details. The system will pass through the state Thursday
bringing a chance of showers mainly to northern Arizona and the
White Mountains. Otherwise...continued dry elsewhere. Daytime
temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal, then warm to
seasonable readings this weekend.
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
Mostly clear skies will prevail across the region this afternoon
through at least Wednesday morning. Winds will generally peak out in
the 25-30kt range this afternoon with light/diurnal speeds and
directions anticipated overnight. Very similar winds (slightly
stronger) are expected late Wednesday morning through the afternoon
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect Wednesday afternoon
through early Wednesday evening for most of Fire Weather Zones 151
and 152 due to the combination of strong and gusty southwest winds,
low relative humidities and a high to very high fire danger.
Slow moving trough will approach the region on Wednesday and the
subsequent tightening pressure gradient will result in gusty winds
across the area. Dry air is already in place and that will remain
unchanged with afternoon humidities falling into the 5-15 percent
range. Isolated spots in fire weather zones 150 and 153 may briefly
reach criteria but these conditions are not expected to be
widespread enough for a warning at this time.
Beyond Wednesday dry conditions will continue into next week with
afternoon breezes each day, however winds are expected to remain
below red flag thresholds Thursday through the weekend.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ151-152.
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