Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Nov 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels through the period.  Region 2222
(S20E44, Ehc/beta-gamma) produced four C-flares, the largest of which
was a C7/Sf flare at 28/0040 UTC.  Slight to moderate growth was
observed in Region 2222 as it continued to rotate onto the disk,
although the frequency of flare activity had declined significantly
since yesterday.

Slight elongation was noted in Region 2219 (N04W34, Ekc/beta-gamma).
Region 2221 (N04E43, Eac/beta-gamma) grew, particularly in its
intermediate spots, and developed some mixed magnetic polarity within
the leader portion of the group.  The remaining regions were stable.

A C2 x-ray event observed at 28/0422 UTC was associated with a filament
eruption observed in GONG an SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery between
28/0415-0500 UTC.  The 8 degree long filament was centered near S18E42,
to the NW of Regions 2222 and 2224, and was observed lifting off the SE
portion of the disk.  The subsequent CME is first visible in SOHO/LASCO
coronagraph imagery emerging from the East limb at 28/0612 UTC. The bulk
of the ejecta appears to be directed to the East and no significant
interaction with Earth is anticipated.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with an increasing chance
for an M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) during the period (29 Nov -
01 Dec). Regions 2219, 2221 and 2222 are the most likely sources based
on their magnetic complexity and continued growth.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels for the forecast period (29 Nov - 01 Dec). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period (29 Nov - 01 Dec).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed at ACE reached a maximum value of 428 km/s at 28/2245
UTC. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 28/1459 UTC. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/1215 UTC. Phi remained negative
through the period. These observations suggested a modestly enhanced
background solar wind.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to stay at nominal levels through the
first two days of the forecast period (29-30 Nov).  On day three (01
Dec), a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream is
expected to arrive at the ACE spacecraft.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels (Below
G1-Minor) for the first two days of the forecast period (29-30 Nov).
Day three (01 Dec) is expected to see unsettled conditions with a chance
for active levels as a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high
speed stream is expected to become geoeffective.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.