Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 241231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Mar 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2643 (N09E56, Hrx/alpha) was mostly
stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (24-26 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 19,100 pfu observed at 23/1735 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate
to high levels over the next three days (24-26 Mar) and the greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated
an enhanced environment. Total magnetic field strength steadily
increased through the first half of the period to a peak of 10 nT at
23/1948 UTC before gradually declining to below 5 nT by the periods
end. The Bz component was predominantly north. Solar wind speeds
steadily increased from around 550 km/s to a brief peak above 700
km/s before a declining trend decreased speeds to between 550-600 km/s
by the end of the reporting period. Phi angle was mostly positive over
the past 24 hours.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue decreasing on day one (24
Mar) as CH HSS influence subsides with near-background levels expected
on days two and three (25-26 Mar) with the return of a nominal solar
wind environment.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated period of
unsettled. The muted response is primarily due to the persistent
northward orientation of the IMFs Bz component.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field likely has potential to reach G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on on day one (24 Mar) due to continued CH HSS
influence. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field activity is expected on
days two and three (25-26 Mar) as CH HSS influence subsides.



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