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FXXX12 KWNP 050031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Oct 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels early in the period when departed
Region 2422 (S20, L=097) produced an M1 flare (R1-Minor) from around the
west limb at 04/0241 UTC. Since the M1 flare, only a few B-class events
were observed from Region 2427 (N18W44, Da1/beta), the lone region on
the disk. The region indicated slight growth in its intermediate and
trailer spots but simplified to a bi-pole magnetic configuration. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
activity, including a slight chance for an M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flare, all three days of the forecast period (05-07

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels during the
period while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at normal to
moderate levels all three days of the forecast period (05-07 Oct). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the S1-Minor

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced throughout the period.
Solar wind velocity increased from around 370 km/s early in the period
to a peak of 532 km/s at 04/1449 UTC. However, for a majority of the
period, wind speed averaged about 450 km/s. Total field strength (Bt)
ranged between 4-10 nT while the Bz component varied between -8 to +6
nT, largely before 04/1300 UTC. After that, Bz indicated little
variability beyond +/- 3 nT. The phi angle remained in a steady positive
(away from the Sun) orientation.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on day
one (05 Oct) with a slow return to nominal levels through days two and
three (06-07 Oct).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at active levels early and late in the period
with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels observed
between 04/0600-0900 UTC due to substorming and prolonged negative Bz.
Quiet to unsettled levels were observed for the remainder of the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels,
with isolated active intervals, on day one (05 Oct). Predominately quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (06-07 Oct). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.