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FXXX12 KWNP 091230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Feb 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. The largest solar event of the period was a C1
flare at 09/0601 UTC which was associated with an approximately 9 degree
long filament eruption centered near N06W34. An additional 24 degree
long filament, centered near N22E18, became active after
08/1800 UTC and began to disappear around 08/2000 UTC. Forecasters are
awaiting additional satellite imagery to determine if either of the CMEs
from these eruptive events contain an Earth-directed component.

The only other significant flare activity was a B7/Sf flare at 08/1618
UTC from Region 2492 (N14W26, Cro/beta). Region 2492 showed signs of
growth in its leader spot group. Region 2494 (S12W50, Dai/beta-gamma)
lost areal coverage in its intermediate spots and continued to decay.
Region 2497 (N13E29, Dao/beta) displayed indications of spot group
consolidation in its leader group and growth in its trailer and
intermediate spots.

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with
occasional C-class flares likely and a slight chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) all three days (09-11 Feb).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels all three days (09-11 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters were
indicative of waning CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed began the
period at about 430 km/s, before decreasing at 08/1430 UTC to speeds
between 375-400 km/s. At approximately 09/0000 wind speed began a steady
increase to 450 km/s towards the end of the period. Total IMF (Bt)
ranged between 1 and 5 nT until about 08/2300 UTC, when it steadily
increased to 14 nT. The Bz component was predominately positive until
09/0730 UTC when it displayed a prolonged period of southward deflection
until the end of the period. The phi angle was primarily negative
(towards the Sun).

Solar wind parameters are expected to decrease as the negative polarity
CH HSS influences wane on day one (09 Feb), however an enhancement is
likely due to an anticipated arrival of a glancing blow CME (from 05
Feb). CME influences are expected to decrease on day two (10 Feb), with
a trend towards ambient solar wind and IMF levels by day three (11 Feb).
Later on day three, another enhancement is likely due to the approach of
a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated period of active
conditions during the 09/0900-1200 UTC synoptic period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels for a few
synoptic periods on day one (09 Feb) in response to CME effects. Day two
(10 Feb) is expected to experience some unsettled levels of geomagnetic
response as CME effects wane. Day three (11 Feb) is expected to see a
return to quiet conditions for most of the day, until late in the day
when geomagnetic response is expected to reach unsettled to active
levels due to an approaching CIR ahead of the positive polarity CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.