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FXXX12 KWNP 051231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels during the period. Region 2535
(N07W75, plage) produced a C1 flare at 04/1351 UTC. A Type II radio
sweep (est. shock speed 560 km/s) and CME were associated with this
event. As previously mentioned, analysis indicted an Earth-directed
component was unlikely. Another impulsive C1/1n flare was observed at
04/2248 UTC from newly numbered region 2542 (N10E63, Cso/beta). An
associated CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at
approximately 04/2324 UTC, but was deemed too far north and east to have
an impact at Earth. Region 2536 (N14W58, Cso/beta) exhibited overall
decay and remained inactive. Region 2539 (N16W22, Cro/beta) remained
stable and quiet throughout the period. Region 2541 (N04E33, Dso/beta)
showed signs of decay early in the period, but observed slight
regeneration in its leader spots near the end of the period. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with C-class
flares likely throughout the forecast period (05-07 May), primarily due
to the increased flare potential of new Region 2542.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a
maximum flux reading of 5,376 pfu at 04/1705 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on days one and two of the forecast period (05-06 May). On
day three (07 May), the arrival of the expected CIR should cause a
redistribution of the energetic particles, dropping flux values to low
to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a
return to nominal conditions. Solar wind speed began the period near 475
km/s and steadily declined to near 380 km/s by periods end. Total
field did experience a gradual increase from 3 nT at the beginning of
the period, to nearly 8 nT by the end. Bz was fairly consistent between
+/- 2 nT through approximately 05/0400 UTC when it started to become
more variable, oscillating between +/- 6 nT. Phi angle was negative
until near 04/1700 UTC, when it switched to a more neutral orientation.

The solar wind environment is expected to remain near background
conditions for days one and two (05-06 May). By day three (07 May), an
enhancement in solar wind parameters is expected with the arrival of a
CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels, with an isolated
unsettled period during the 05/0900-1200 UTC synoptic period, likely in
response to weak substorming.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on
days one and two (05-06 May) under a nominal solar wind regime.
Unsettled to active conditions are likely on day three (07 May) in
response to the arrival of a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.