Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 251230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 May 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2349 (S20W56,
Cao/beta) showed signs of decay as the trailer spots lost their
penumbra, while the regions magnetic footprint remained simple, but
slightly stretched. Region 2353 (N07W38, Dao/beta) was relatively stable
as it lost penumbral coverage around its trailer spots, while the leader
spots consolidated and gained penumbral area. Region 2355 (S10E35,
Cao/beta) lost spots in its trailer polarity; and the other two regions
remained fairly stable.

At about 24/1245 UTC, SDO/AIA 304 imagery observed an eruptive
prominence from the SW limb. At 24/1325 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
observed an associated narrow, slow-moving coronal mass ejection (CME).
This CME does not appear to be on a Sun-Earth line due to its location
on or behind the limb. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed this
period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
activity over the next three days (25-27 May), primarily from Regions
2349 and 2353.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (25-27 May) and the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE satellite, indicated ambient
conditions. Solar wind speeds were generally steady with an average
speed of about 340 km/s. Total magnetic field strength was undisturbed
and averaged primarily between 2-4 nT. The Bz component varied between
north and south orientations with a maximum negative deviation of -4 nT.
The phi angle was predominately in a negative (towards) sector with
brief, intermittent periods of positive (away) deflections after 25/0100
UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels over
the next three days (25-27 May) under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet levels over the
next three days (25-27 May) as Earth is expected to remain under the
influence of an ambient solar wind environment.


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