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FXXX12 KWNP 041231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2290 (N22, L=63) managed to
produce a C4 flare at 03/1337 UTC as it completed its transit behind the
western limb. Region 2292 (S08W63, Cai/beta) became the most active
region, producing a couple of low level C-class flares during the
period. Region 2293 (N05W38, Dao/beta) remained quiet and mostly stable.
No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the

Solar activity is likely to remain at low levels with a slight chance
for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity throughout the period
(05-06 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels due to elevated
solar wind velocities. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background levels this period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
again on days one and two (04-05 Mar) in delayed response to elevated
solar wind velocities. A return to moderate levels is forecast for day
three (06 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
persist at background levels over the next three days (04-06 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected waning
negative polarity CH HSS influences for most of the period. Solar wind
velocities decreased from near 480 km/s at the beginning of the period
to average near 440 km/s for most of the rest of the period. IMF total
field ranged from 2 nT to 6 nT, while Bz fluctuated between +/-5
nT, and the phi angle remained in a mostly negative (toward) solar
sector. Just after 04/0800 UTC, the anticipated solar sector boundary
crossing to a positive phi angle (away) orientation was observed.
Simultaneously, wind speeds increased slightly to near 490 km/s, total
field began an unsteady climb to near 10 nT, and Bz saw a maximum
southward deviation to -7 nT.

The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly disturbed for
day one (04 Mar) as CH HSS conditions wane, as well as continued
influence from the solar sector transition. Days two and three (05-06
Mar) should see a return to near background levels as CH HSS influences


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled levels
from 03/2100-2400 UTC and 04/0900-1200 UTC.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through the
period (04-06 Mar), with a chance for isolated active periods on day one
(04 Mar) as CH HSS effects wane, as well as the result of solar
sector transitions. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.