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FXXX12 KWNP 291230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2390 (S15W32,
Dai/beta) continued to exhibit signs of decay in both the intermediate
and the trailer spots. Region 2389 (S11W01, Cso/beta) dissipated further
and was inactive. Region 2391 (N07E49, Hsx/alpha), as well as the other
two numbered spot groups, remained stable and inactive.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed in
available coronagraph imagery during the period.

Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class
activity for the next three days (29-31 Jul) primarily due to the flare
potential of Region 2390.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 424 pfu observed at 28/1705 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (29-31 Jul)
while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds began the period near 450
km/s, exhibited a predominantly decreasing trend, and ended the period
just over 400 km/s. The IMF total field strength ranged between 1 - 5
nT, Bz fluctuated between +/- 4 nT, and the Phi angle remained mostly

The solar wind environment is expected to continue the downward trend
through the remainder of day one (29 Jul) and into day two (30 Jul). By
day three (31 Jul), a slight increase in the solar wind is expected out
ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels, with an isolated
unsettled period from 29/1200-1500 UTC, mainly due to residual CH HSS

Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of day one
(29 Jul), although a brief period of active conditions remains possible
due to lingering effects from the positive polarity CH HSS. Day two  (30
Jul) should see the field remain fairly stable as it returns to an
ambient background state. Later on day three (31 July), conditions
should begin to increase to unsettled to active levels with the
anticipated approach of the negative polarity CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.