Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2303 (N18W78, Dao/beta), 2305
(S08W19, Eki/beta-gamma), and 2310 (N04W11, plage) all produced C2
flares during the period, as well as several other low-level C-class
flares. Region 2305 continued to show consolidation in its leader and
intermediate spots, yet exhibited overall decay. Region 2315 (S19W16,
Cao/beta) developed and was numbered during the period. The rest of the
spotted regions were either stable or in decay. An approximately five
degree long filament, centered near S23E50, was observed in Gong H-alpha
imagery lifting off the solar disk from approximately 28/1543 UTC to
28/1610 UTC. Initial analysis indicated the associated coronal mass
ejection (CME) was directed well off the Sun-Earth line, had estimated
velocities between 250-350 km/s, and should have no impact on Earth. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for an
isolated M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the next three days (29-31 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels once again, observing a peak flux of 1,221 pfu at 28/0700
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to remain at moderate to high levels through the period (29-31 Mar). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
be at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters exhibited periodic disturbances ahead of the
anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar winds
increased gradually from approximately 370 km/s at the beginning of the
period to near 420 km/s by the end of the period. Total field values
increased from 6 nT to 15 nT during the period. The Bz component was
mostly positive, excluding an approximately three hour period from
28/0400-0700 UTC, when a -8 nT southward deflection occurred and from
approximately 28/2100 UTC through the end of the period. Phi fluctuated
between positive (away) and negative (towards) to begin the period, but
transitioned to a mostly negative (towards) orientation after 28/0330
UTC.

.Forecast...
A negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected
to influence the solar wind environment beginning early on day one (29
Mar) with conditions persisting through day two (30 Mar). Solar wind
speeds reaching 700 km/s are possible with total field values reaching
near 20 nT. By day three (31 Mar) CH HSS effects are expected to
diminish, returning to a mostly quiet solar wind environment.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active to minor (G1-Minor)
storm levels on day one (29 Mar) as the southern extension of a negative
polarity polar coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position. Active
conditions are expected to continue early into day two (30 Mar) before
decreasing to unsettled levels late in the day. Quiet to active levels
are expected on day three (31 Mar) as CH HSS effects taper off.



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