Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 270031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Feb 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with only B-class activity observed.  Slight
growth was observed in Region 2640 (N11E24, Bxo/beta) while Region 2639
(S08W61, Bxo/beta) appeared to be in decay.  Region 2638 (N18W16,
Hsx/alpha) was relatively stable.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight
chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (27 Feb-01
Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels with a peak
flux of 956 pfu observed at 26/1755 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (27 Feb-01 Mar).  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels during the period.  Solar
wind speed continued to decrease from approximately 480 km/s to near 400
km/s while the total field was in the 2-4 nT range.  The Bz component
was mostly positive ranging from -2 nT to +3 nT.  Phi angle was mostly
positive.

.Forecast...
Background solar wind parameters are expected on day one and through
most of day two (27-28 Feb) with the under a nominal solar wind regime.
By late on day two, total interplanetary field strength and density are
likely to begin to increase as a CIR in advance of a negative polarity
CH HSS rotates into geoeffective position.  By day three (01 Mar), CIR
effects are expected to give way to CH HSS effects.  Solar wind speed in
the 600-700 km/s range is likely with this HSS based on STEREO A data.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day one and through most of day
two (27-28 Feb) under nominal solar wind conditions.  By late on day
two, unsettled to active conditions are likely as a CIR preceding a
negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.  Unsettled
to G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on day three (01 Mar) due to CIR/CH
HSS effects.



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