Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 250031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Jul 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M2 flare at 24/0620 UTC
and an M1 flare at 24/1743 UTC from Region 2567 (N05W92, Dao/beta).
Accurate analysis of Region 2567 proved difficult due to its proximity
to the west limb.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance further M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X-class
(R3-Strong or greater) on day one (25 Jul).  Solar activity is expected
to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day two (26 Jul) as Region 2567 rotates further past
the west limb.  Very low levels with a slight chance for a C-class flare
is expected by day three (27 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (25-27 Jul). There is a slight
chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on day one (25 Jul) due
to potential flare activity from Region 2567.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated a weak transient arrival, possibly
associated with flare activity late on 20 July to early on 21 July.
Solar wind speed was around 380 km/s until 24/1450 UTC, when the arrival
of a weak transient increased solar wind speeds to near 470 km/s.  Total
field increased from 5 nT to 13 nT before decreasing to near 10 nT.  The
Bz component deflected southward for 3 hours with to a maximum of -9 nT.
Phi angle was mostly negative (towards) with brief variations into a
positive (away) sector between 24/0330 UTC and 24/1015 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced through early on day
one (25 Jul) due to continued weak transient influence.  By mid to late
on day two (26 Jul), a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become
geoeffective. Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be
enhanced through day three (27 Jul).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet through the UTC day until 24/1450
UTC, when a weak transient caused unsettled to G1 Minor storm levels.
Minor Storm levels were observed during the 24/1800-2100 UTC period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels
through the forecast period (25-27 Jul) due to continued weak CME
effects persisting through early on 25 Jul as well as the arrival of a
positive polarity CH HSS by mid to late on 26 July.



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