Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 271231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Aug 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2146 (N08W65, Dki/beta-gamma-delta)
remains the most threatening, producing a C5/Sf flare at 26/2325 UTC, as
well as a few low level, C-class flares over the period.  Region 2149
(N10E03, Eac/beta) produced a C4/Sn flare at 27/0358 UTC.  Both regions
decayed during the period, although 2146 grew more magnetically complex.
The remaining regions were stable or decaying.  No Earth-directed CMEs
were noted.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for M-class flares (R1 radio blackouts) for days one
through three (27-29 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux began returning to nominal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (27-29 Aug).  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels with a
slight chance for an minor (S1) space radiation storm.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft began to reflect
disturbed conditions over the past 24 hours.  Around 26/2100 UTC, phi
began to shift from a positive orientation as wind speed and density
increased.  Wind speed rose slightly from near 280 km/s to 300-310 km/s.
The total magnetic field which had been less than 10 nT began rising
gradually around 27/0143 UTC, climbing from near 6 nT to 15 nT by
27/0900 UTC.  Bz became mostly negative after 27/0031 UTC and continued
declining to reach -14 nT by 27/0900 UTC.  These conditions suggested
the arrival of the anticipated CME.

.Forecast...
The solar wind field today should be dominated by CME effects.  Days two
and three (28-29 Aug) should see both the waning of the CME, as well as
a transition into a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream
(CH/HSS). Wind speeds as high as 600 km/s for day three have been
forecast by the Wang Sheeley-Arge solar wind model.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Active conditions were
recorded during the after 27/0600 UTC, with localized minor to major
storm conditions observed at high latitudes.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels are expected with the chance for a minor
geomagnetic storm (NOAA Scale G1) for day one (27 Aug) in response to
the CME effects from the pair of CMEs on 22 Aug. CME effects are
expected to wane on day two (28 Aug), replaced by the arrival of a
positive polarity CH/HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected
for day two, and quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for day
three (29 Aug).


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