Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 230032
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Sep 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels.  Regions 2680 (N07W93, Hsx/alpha)
and 2681 (S13E46, Hsx/alpha) both continued to be quiet and stable.  No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to increase to low levels with a slight
chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on days one through
three (23-25 Sep) with the return of old Region 2673 (S09, L=119).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a maximum
flux of 36,942 pfu at 22/1655 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high levels on
day one (23 Sep).  A decrease to moderate levels is likely on day two
(24 Sep) with the arrival of a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH
HSS.  Another increase to high levels is expected by day three (25 Sep).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels.  Solar wind speed
decreased from approximately 450 km/s to near 370 km/s.  Total field
ranged from 2-6 nT while the Bz component was between +3 nT and -5 nT.
Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive (away) sector with some
variability beginning after 22/1550 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on day one
(23 Sep).  On days two and three (24-25 Sep), parameters are expected to
become enhanced from a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (23 Sep) under a nominal solar wind regime.  Quiet to active
levels are expected on days two and three (24-25 Sep) with the arrival
of a negative polarity CH HSS.



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