Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
0133 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014


...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER
BASINS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...COVERING THE TIME PERIOD
OF OCTOBER THROUGH LATE DECEMBER.

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS FOUR SECTIONS...THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME
TEXT ON HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PRODUCT AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING LOCAL
HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL
CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR
FLOOD CATEGORY...THE THIRD GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF RIVER
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE RIVER STAGES LISTED...AND THE FINAL SECTION
COVERS THE RISK OF RIVERS FALLING BELOW LISTED STAGES.


...FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS...
THIS IS...OF COURSE...THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN THE HISTORICAL RISK OF
WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...AS THE REGION
ENTERS THE LATTER PART OF NOVEMBER AND EARLY DECEMBER...THE RIVERS
WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ICE COVER. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...THE
FORMATION OF ICE WILL CAUSE RELATIVELY RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS.
TYPICALLY...THE HIGH WATER CAUSED BY ICE FORMATION REMAINS BELOW
THAT NEEDED TO CREATE FLOOD CONCERNS...BUT ANY TIME ICE BEGINS
TO MOBILIZE ON A RIVER...THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS NOT ZERO.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...
THE MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF
ITS TRIBUTARIES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
SUGGESTS GROUNDWATER CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE SURFACE WATERS ARE ALSO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. GOING FORWARD...THIS GROUNDWATER CONTRIBUTION
WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE WINTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WETLANDS
AND PONDS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THIS WAY FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. UPPER SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS...WHICH WERE
ABNORMALLY HIGH THROUGH THE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL...SHOULD BE
FALLING TO MORE NORMAL CONDITIONS AS NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN RECEIVED THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ALL RESERVOIRS ARE WELL
WITHIN THEIR NORMAL OPERATING LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERNS AFFECTING THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO A CONTINUED PATTERN OF WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITION PATTERN.



...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE
NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR...MODERATE
AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.



                    JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

        PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
                   FROM  10/27/2014 TO 1/25/2015 Z

TABLE 1                                  : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                         : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
                                         : CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)
                         CATEGORICAL     :
                      FLOOD STAGES (FT)  :  MINOR   MODERATE  MAJOR
LOCATION            MINOR    MOD   MAJOR :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
LITTLE MUDDY CREEK.....
  WILLISTON           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER.....
  MARMARTH            18.0   23.0   30.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MEDORA              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WATFORD CITY        20.0   24.0   30.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
KNIFE RIVER.....
  MANNING             15.0   17.0   20.0 :  <5   5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SPRING CREEK.....
  ZAP                 14.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   6   <5   5   <5  <5
KNIFE RIVER.....
  HAZEN               21.0   24.0   25.0 :  <5   5   <5  <5   <5  <5
HEART RIVER.....
  MANDAN              17.0   23.0   28.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
APPLE CREEK.....
  MENOKEN             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
CANNONBALL RIVER.....
  REGENT              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
CEDAR CREEK.....
  RALEIGH             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
CANNONBALL RIVER.....
  BREIEN              10.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
BEAVER CREEK.....
  LINTON               9.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
JAMES RIVER.....
  GRACE CITY          12.0   14.0   15.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
PIPESTEM CREEK.....
  PINGREE             11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
JAMES RIVER.....
  LAMOURE             14.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

LEGEND:
    CS  =  CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
    HS  =  HISTORICAL SIMULATION  ( "       "  NORMAL  CONDITIONS)
    FT  =  FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM


...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...


THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK...THERE IS A
         50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE LITTLE MUDDY CREEK AT WILLISTON
         TO RISE ABOVE 4.4 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
         IT WILL RISE ABOVE 4.6 FEET.


                    JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
           PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES
                                 FROM
TABLE 2

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
LITTLE MUDDY CREEK.....
  WILLISTON            4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.6    5.2
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER.....
  MARMARTH             1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    3.0    4.1    4.6
  MEDORA               2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    3.3    5.0    5.4
  WATFORD CITY        -0.6   -0.6   -0.6   -0.6    0.1    2.0    2.3
KNIFE RIVER.....
  MANNING              6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.4    7.2
SPRING CREEK.....
  ZAP                  5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.4    7.3   10.3
KNIFE RIVER.....
  HAZEN                2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    3.2   10.7   17.4
HEART RIVER.....
  MANDAN               0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    3.1    5.8
APPLE CREEK.....
  MENOKEN              5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    6.8
CANNONBALL RIVER.....
  REGENT               5.2    5.2    5.2    5.3    6.6    8.2    8.5
CEDAR CREEK.....
  RALEIGH              1.4    1.4    1.4    1.4    3.4    4.5    4.7
CANNONBALL RIVER.....
  BREIEN               2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    6.2    8.0    8.6
BEAVER CREEK.....
  LINTON               4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.5    5.1    5.2
JAMES RIVER.....
  GRACE CITY           4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.1
PIPESTEM CREEK.....
  PINGREE              4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
JAMES RIVER.....
  LAMOURE              7.3    7.3    7.3    7.3    7.3    7.3    7.3


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                    JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:LITTLE MUDDY CR
LMCN8       4.3     4.3     4.3     4.3     4.3     4.3     4.3

:LITTLE MISSOURI R
MTHN8       1.7     1.7     1.4     1.4     1.4     1.4     1.4

:LTL MISSOURI R
MDAN8       2.1     2.1     1.9     1.9     1.9     1.9     1.9

:LITTLE MISSOURI R
WTFN8      -0.8    -0.8    -1.1    -1.1    -1.1    -1.1    -1.1

:KNIFE R
MNGN8       6.1     6.1     6.1     6.1     6.1     6.1     6.1

:SPRING CR
ZAPN8       4.9     4.9     4.8     4.8     4.8     4.8     4.8

:KNIFE R
HZNN8       1.6     1.3     1.1     1.1     1.1     1.1     1.1

:HEART R
MDNN8      -0.2    -0.6    -0.9    -1.0    -1.0    -1.0    -1.0

:APPLE CR
MENN8       5.2     5.2     5.2     5.2     5.2     5.2     5.2

:CANNONBALL R
REGN8       5.2     5.2     5.2     5.2     5.2     5.2     5.2

:CEDAR CR
RLGN8       1.4     1.3     1.3     1.2     1.2     1.2     1.2

:CANNONBALL R
BREN8       2.3     2.1     2.1     2.1     2.1     2.1     2.1

:BEAVER CR
BVRN8       4.2     4.2     4.2     4.2     4.2     4.2     4.2

:JAMES R
GCEN8       4.0     4.0     4.0     4.0     4.0     4.0     4.0

:PIPESTEM CR
PGEN8       4.5     4.5     4.5     4.5     4.5     4.5     4.5

:JAMES R
LAMN8       7.1     7.1     7.1     7.1     7.0     7.0     7.0


...THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND
SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING 25 OR MORE YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN
THEN BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST...AND ASSIGNED AN
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE...FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS...
THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT... IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).

THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.  THIS OUTLOOK
IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).

THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THE YEARS 1978 THROUGH 2002.

. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL
SPRING MELT PERIOD...USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE
FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING ON
THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

        WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK OR WEATHER.GOV/BIS

    THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS"ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP
  ...OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS
RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS
WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.


$$
AJS









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