Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FGUS71 KCLE 131558

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service CLEVELAND OH
1158 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017

Final Spring Flood Outlook of the 2017 Season
Flood Potential is Normal for the Ohio and Great Lakes Drainage Basins...

This is the eighth and final spring flood outlook of the 2017 season.
The outlooks are produced to highlight the hydrometeorological
conditions that combine to produce an above, below, or near normal
flood risk for the winter and spring season. This includes snow
cover, creek and river levels and amount of ice cover on them,
along with the expected precipitation over the next few weeks.

The winter season saw mild temperatures and above normal precipitation.
The frequent rainfall and snowmelt events recharged the groundwater
and reservoir levels from last years drought. Despite this, there
were only a few flooding episodes. This was mainly due limited
snowpack and stored water, and no ice development on the rivers.
Snow cover has been eliminated with a low likelihood of any
additional snowfall this season. The lack of a snowpack from late
winter considerably reduces the flood risk for spring.

For early spring, conditions remain wet with near saturated
ground cover. However the return of the growing season and leafing
across the area will continue to reduce the areas flood risk over
the next few weeks. River and creek levels are near normal across
most of the region with the exception of the western basins where
conditions are below normal. The forecast for the next 8 to 14
days does not support any events capable of producing flooding,
however minor flooding can occur with localized events. Ground
conditions and forecast outlooks support a normal risk of flooding
this spring. This means flooding can be expected in the region
with water levels having minor impacts.

For the short term forecast, the pattern will remain active with
dramatic swings in temperature accompanied by rainfall. None of
the projected storm systems are projected to produce significant
rainfall. The pattern for the next two to four weeks also favors
an active pattern. However, this is typical for this time of year
when streamflows run at their highest. The large scale atmosphere
patterns for the rest of spring and into the summer give no clear
indication of wetter or drier conditions.

Real time river information and probabilistic forecast for
specific locations along rivers across the region can be found on
the internet at www.weather.gov/cle or https://watermonitor.gov
Since conditions can change, please refer to the latest flood
watches, warnings, and statements for additional information.

Thanks to all the observers and agencies which have helped gather
data in support of this outlook. This is expected to be the final
winter/spring flood outlook.



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