Extended Streamflow Prediction
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Water Supply Outlook                                             May 7, 2015

The distribution of rain during April was highly erratic in Colorado. This has
created inconsistencies between the seasonal precipitation and the forecast
runoff. Basinwide snowpack has recovered somewhat from the heavy losses in
April but the forecast runoff remains very low and does not appear to reflect
the seasonal precipitation totals.

The snowpack in New Mexico is extremely low and runoff-to-date does not appear
to be sufficient to approximate a normal runoff year. Once again, forecasted
seasonal runoff for New Mexico will be significantly below average.

Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 78 percent-of-average for
the Arkansas River at Salida and 70 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir.
Runoff from Grape Creek, and the Cucharas and Huerfano Rivers is forecast to
be 41, 48, and 54 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to
provide 75 percent-of-average runoff. Runoff from the Purgatoire River is
forecast to be 53 percent-of-average.

In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is
forecast to be 51 and 50 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and
Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 46 and 50 percent-of-average.

Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-December) in the mountain headwaters
of Colorado ranges from slightly above normal to below normal. Reports range
from 146 percent-of-average at Buena Vista to 69 percent-of-average at Apishapa.
Snowpack in the Arkansas River Basin, as measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is
below-normal with 77 percent-of-median snowpack. In the Cucharas and
Huerfano River basins, the snow pack is also well below normal at 56

New Mexico`s water-year-to-date precipitation is near average but an isolated
station is above-average. Reports range from 164 percent-of-average near Eagle
Nest to 70 percent-of-average near Raton. Snowpack in the Canadian River
basin is effectively melted for this season.

Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 107 percent-of-average above
Pueblo Reservoir and 52 percent-of-average below. The upper reservoirs are at
128 percent of last year`s total. The lower reservoirs are at 147 percent of
last year`s total.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and
precipitation outlooks for the nation. The temperature outlook for May through
July call for equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal
temperatures in the Arkansas River headwaters in Colorado. There is a slightly
higher chance (33%-40%)for below-normal temperatures in the Canadian River
headwaters of New Mexico. CPC`s precipitation outlook also calls for increased
chances (40%-50%) of above-median precipitation in Colorado and New Mexico.

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