Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 012050
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 091200Z

UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SWD
AND DEEPENS ALONG THE W COAST AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
BY 12Z D5/FRI...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
SRN CA COAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX AND WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LARGELY STATIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN ON D8/MON.

...SOUTHWEST...
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL
D5/FRI WHEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN. THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MIN RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ON D3/WED AND D4/THU. IN ADDITION...SWLY
FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GUSTY SWLY/SLY WINDS EACH DAY. THIS COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
RECEPTABILITY OF THE FUELS...PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HAVE DRIED FUELS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. AS SUCH...DELINEATED ELEVATED AREAS ON D3/WED AND
D4/THU. INCREASED MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED AFTER D4/THU SHOULD PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

..MOSIER.. 06/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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