Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 102144
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 121200Z - 181200Z

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN
ROCKIES ON D3/FRI...DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS PERSISTED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS ON D4/SAT AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON D5/SUN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST...WITH
A SLIGHTLY MORE SELY PROGRESSION TAKING IT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY. WRN CONUS RIDGING WILL LIKELY RETURN BY
D6/MON BUT ITS PERSISTENCE IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. RESULTANT TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THESE FRONTS MAY RESULT IN A
FIRE WEATHER THREAT...PARTICULARLY ON D6/MON AND D7/TUE.
HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IS STILL TOO LOW TO ADD ANY AREAS WITH THIS
FORECAST.

...SOUTHERN CA...
OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CA ON D5/SUN
AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. STRONGEST GRADIENT WITH THE
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE OCCURS ON D6/MON MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
GUIDANCE PRECLUDES INTRODUCING ANY AREAS NOW BUT IF RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIABILITY DECREASES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS...A
FIRE WEATHER THREAT AREA MAY BE NEEDED.

..MOSIER.. 02/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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