Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 312046
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VALID 021200Z - 081200Z

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE NWRN
CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES LOCALLY
ENHANCING AREAS OF TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/SFC WINDS AS VERTICAL MIXING
STRENGTHENS EACH AFTERNOON. WHERE RH VALUES BECOME LOW PERIPHERAL TO
THIS PATTERN...ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ENSUE. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY THE CASE FROM MUCH OF NV TO WY/SRN MT ON D3/WED WHEN
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AMPLIFICATION OF THE CYCLONIC-FLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...DISPERSION
AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES AND THE STRENGTH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW YIELD
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FURTHERMORE...THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT NO MORE THAN
MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS WOULD ALIGN WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH. AS
SUCH...CRITICAL AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.

ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS OTHER AREAS FROM THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN TO THE
CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE D3/WED-D8/MON PERIOD.
HOWEVER...VARIABILITY AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS...COUPLED WITH LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS TO COMBINE WITH LOW RH AS
DEPICTED BY THE BULK OF THESE SOLUTIONS...PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL
PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INTRODUCTION OF
THESE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN -- IF
INDIVIDUAL-MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WERE TO CONVERGE ON ENHANCED FIRE-WEATHER RISK AREAS.

..COHEN.. 08/31/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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