Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 242016

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z



The ongoing forecast is on track with only minimal changes needed to
the elevated area in the Texas Panhandle.  Elevated to critical fire
weather conditions are expected across a broad area of eastern New
Mexico and the western third of Texas today, although the driest
fuels and most favorable conditions for fire spread remain confined
to the critical area from east-central New Mexico eastward into
portions of the Texas South Plains/Panhandle.

See the previous forecast discussion below for more information.

..Cook.. 02/24/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

An upper shortwave trough over the central/southern Rockies this
morning will lift northeast to the Great Lakes through the end of
the period. As this occurs, another shortwave trough will track
southeast from the Pacific Northwest toward the Four Corners by
Sunday morning. This will result in continued strong deep-layer
west/southwesterly flow across the southern Rockies and adjacent

At the surface, a weak low will develop in the vicinity of the
eastern TX Panhandle/western OK and a tight pressure gradient will
overlay the southern Rockies into the High Plains. This will aid in
strong downslope westerly winds across southeast CO and eastern NM
into western TX. Sustained wind speeds around 15-25 mph with higher
gusts are expected across the region. RH values will fall into the
8-20 percent range, with the lowest values across parts of eastern
NM into western TX. It is this area from east-central NM into the TX
South Plains where critical fire weather conditions are possible
given an overlap with very dry fuels. A broader area of elevated
fire weather potential will extend from southeast CO southward
toward the TX Big Bend.

...Please see for graphic product...

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