Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 071554
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

VALID 071700Z - 081200Z

ONLY CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO INCLUDE MORE OF EAST
CENTRAL OREGON IN THE CURRENT ISOLATED DRY THUNDER AREA.  CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRY FUELS IN PLACE ACROSS
THOSE AREAS.  REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

..COOK.. 07/07/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROTATING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WEAK WESTERLY DEEP
LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PREVAIL. FURTHERMORE...FALLING HEIGHTS AND
ADEQUATE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NORTHEAST WA INTO FAR NORTHWEST
MT. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL CA COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
ABUNDANT MIDLEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO PARTS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SOUTHERN ORE INTO FAR NORTHWEST MT...

ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ORE. WHILE PW VALUES REMAIN IN THE
0.75-1.00 INCH RANGE...LEADING TO WETTING THUNDERSTORM RAIN
CORES...LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM CORES WILL
POSE A RISK FOR NEW STARTS GIVEN LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND DRY
FUELS. FURTHER NORTH FROM NORTHEAST WA INTO FAR NORTHWEST
MT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. PW VALUES HERE ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 0.85 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTION EXPECTED.
AS A RESULT...WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...AS IS THE
CASE FURTHER SOUTH...DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH LIGHTING STRIKES
OUTSIDE THE MAIN RAIN CORES WILL POSE A THREAT FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.


ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COLUMBIA BASIN/COLUMBIA GORGE REGION...WESTERLY
DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL LEAD TO DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BEING WIND SPEEDS...WHICH
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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