Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 261535

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z


Ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed.  Widespread
critical conditions remain likely in much of the region today, with
the eastern extent of the fire weather threat modulated by eastward
progress of a dryline this afternoon.  This dryline should reach the
US 281 corridor by mid/late afternoon.

See the previous discussion for more information.

..Cook.. 03/26/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0310 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

A fast moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the
southern Plains during the forecast period. As this occurs, a belt
of enhanced westerly mid-level flow accompanying the shortwave
trough will exit the southern Rocky Mountains and overspread the
southern Plains. At the surface, a cyclone located in the vicinity
of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado will exhibit modest
strengthening as it moves east-southeast into central Oklahoma
before it lifts northeast.

...Far southeast Arizona and south New Mexico...
Heights will be rising across the southern Rocky Mountains as the
aforementioned shortwave trough ejects into the Plains. This will
allow for warming temperatures and dry conditions across far
southeast Arizona and much of central and southern New Mexico. A
north-to-south gradient in relative humidity will exist across this
area, with the lowest relative-humidity falling below 15% across
southern New Mexico. Enough enhanced mid-level flow may linger
across this region to allow for any vertical mixing to result in
surface winds around 20 mph during the afternoon. This will result
in critical fire-weather conditions.

...Southern Plains...
Downslope flow will result in warm, dry conditions across eastern
New Mexico eastward into west Texas. Here, afternoon relative
humidity should fall into the 10-15% range. Additionally, surface
winds should exceed 20 mph as some of the stronger flow aloft
associated with the shortwave trough mixes down. This will result in
critical fire-weather conditions for much of the afternoon. Some
uncertainty remains as to the eastern extent of critical conditions,
primarily owing to concerns with how far east the dryline mixes.

...Central New Mexico...
A belt of enhanced west-northwest surface flow will develop during
the afternoon. However, relative humidity should remain in the
20-40% range. This will result in elevated fire-weather conditions,
although brief/localized critical conditions may occur.

...Please see for graphic product...

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