Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231531
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1031 AM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

                   VALID MARCH 23 THROUGH MARCH 28

...FORECAST RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO GOOD "WETTING
RAINS" ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WGRFC AREA...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Snow in the higher elevations of Colorado and New Mexico remain
in the forecast, followed by showers with the potential for severe
weather are also expected as a cold front treks eastward across
the WGRFC area.

By late tonight into the early weekend, this cold front sets the
stage for showers and the potential for periods of severe weather in
Texas as it interacts with a surface dryline and moisture streaming
up from the Gulf. As a result, expect widespread showers later
Thursday and Friday...into Saturday. This activity increases in
intensity as it shifts eastward with the heaviest rainfall expected
for the north and east Texas.

Another shortwave is forecast to move through the WGRFC area late
this weekend into early next week once again increasing the
rain chances later on Sunday into Monday.

Another system is forecast to impact the WGRFC area by the middle
of next week indicating an active period which may suggest the
beginning of the spring storm season.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for southern
Colorado and northern New Mexico with up to 0.25 inch for north
central Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches
are forecast for the eastern half of Texas with the heaviest amounts
over the northeast Texas. Also...MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for far east Texas.

Unseasonably warm, dry conditions so far this March have caused
continued soil moisture loss. This is indicated in the current
U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas which showed the area considered
to be abnormally dry increased to 47%.  Also, 9% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought conditions and 1% was in severe
drought. In New Mexico the Drought monitor shows 56% of the state
experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with around 7% in the
moderate drought category.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Locally heavy rainfall is possible at times during the next five
days, but no significant flooding should be expected.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


$$





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