Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS74 KFWR 281650
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1149 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

                     VALID MAY 28 THROUGH JUNE 2

...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system is located over northeastern
Nebraska this morning.  As the upper low moved out of Colorado into
Nebraska the past 24 hours, drier air moved into Texas from the west.
The last of the thunderstorms which were over east and southeast
Texas Friday moved southeast into Louisiana and over the Gulf of
Mexico last night.  Localized flooding rainfall occurred over the
southeastern third of Texas before it ended.  Parts of east central
and southeast Texas received in excess of 4.00 inches of rain the
past 24 hours, with amounts of over 6 inches near The Woodlands and a
maximum rainfall of 7.65 inches near Woodville.

The region is getting a break from the rainfall today.  But yet
another storm system will be developing which will bring more rain
to WGRFC`s area later this weekend into next week.  By this evening
the next low pressure system will be forming south of San Francisco
CA.  Moisture well out ahead of this low will move up the Rio Grande,
and this moisture will combine with an upper air disturbance to
produce some rain over southwest Texas and northern Mexico tonight.
This disturbance will spread up into north Texas Sunday, bringing a
chance for light precipitation.  The dryline is also forecast to be
active Sunday afternoon and evening so showers and thunderstorms
will produce rain over west Texas.

By Monday morning the upper low will move into western Arizona.  This
will result in the dryline becoming active once again in western
Texas Monday. Then this low will remain nearly stationary Tuesday
so portions of northern and western Texas areas will continue to see
areas of rainfall, especially along and ahead of the dryline over
western and central Texas where the strongest thunderstorms are
expected.

The upper air disturbance is forecast to move over Texas Wednesday.
In addition, a cold front is forecast to move into the state from the
northwest.  Therefore, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
over Texas Wednesday into Thursday morning, with locally heavy
rainfall possible.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts
of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for west and southwestern Texas.
The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast for
the Rio Grande area east of Del Rio.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25
inch are forecast for southern Colorado, extreme northern New Mexico,
a good part of western Texas, and western Louisiana.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are
forecast for western and northern Texas.  The heaviest rain, with MAP
amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast for the Red River valley around
Childress.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for
most of Colorado, extreme northern and eastern New Mexico, and most
of Texas and Louisiana.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for a good part of Texas.  The heaviest rain, with
MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast just north of the Red River.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of
Colorado, eastern New Mexico, most of Texas, and northern Louisiana.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for most of Texas, eastern New Mexico, southeast
Colorado, and northwest Louisiana.  The heaviest rain, with MAP
amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast southeast of Childress, and
from south of San Antonio through Austin and Waco to just east of
the DFW metroplex.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast
for most of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

Soils continue to be  moist across the majority Texas, especially
the eastern half. Only 3% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry,
with no moderate or greater drought noted.  Over New Mexico, 83%
of the state is abnormally dry, and 37% remains in the moderate
drought category.  With soils being so wet, runoff is expected from
the forecast rainfall again next week over northern and central
Texas. Over the remainder of the WGRFC area little runoff will occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Jacinto Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues across the San Jacinto river basin with
most locations continuing to rise.

...Colorado Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Pockets of heavy rainfall produced widespread rises and river flooding
downstream of the Austin area.  Major Flooding is expected from Bastrop
to Wharton.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Widespread minor to major flooding continues in the Trinity river basin
with the majority of those flooding locations continuing to rise as
water moves downstream.

...Brazos Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Moderate to major flood conditions are occurring in the Brazos River
basin.  The Brazos mainstem from Washington through Hempstead
(HPDT2) and Richmond (RMOT2) to Rosharon (ROST2) is or will
experience moderate and major flood levels through the weekend into
early next week.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Flooding at Bloomington  (DUPT2) will fluctuate at moderate flood
levels from this additional rainfall.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The forecast points in the Neches basin are slow responding and will
crest in the next two to three days.   Three locations are expected
to ruse into moderate flood levels over the next few days. These
sites are Rockland (ROKT2), Town Bluff (TBFT2) and Beaumont (BEAT2).

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remaining river systems across the WGRFC area remain relatively
wet, especially the eastern half of Texas, and additional rainfall
expected within the next 5 days will likely generate river responses
which could lead to more river action level and flood level flows.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$





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