Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 221629
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1128 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
VALID JULY 22 THROUGH JULY 27
...WHILE THE MONSOON CONTINUES OVER THE WEST, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF TEXAS UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY...
An upper level high pressure system is centered over the
Colorado/New Mexico border region this morning. This feature will
remain a dominant factor in our weather pattern throughout the rest of
the week into the weekend. As the ridge remains over or near the four
corners region, it will keep temperatures warm and will retard
rainfall over most of the WGRFC forecast area. The forecast is
for generally rain-free conditions for Texas, with the exception of
continued isolated thunderstorms along and near the Gulf coast in
southeast Texas fed by off-shore breezes. The best chances for rain
over east and southeast Texas will be Wednesday as an easterly wave
of low pressure approaches the WGRFC area from Louisiana. This wave
will weaken as it approaches the ridge over Texas on Thursday, but
isolated thunderstorms near the coast and possibly over east Texas
will continue Thursday and Friday.
Farther west, a monsoonal plume of moisture moving up from the
south will feed storm activity each afternoon and evening for the
next 5 days. Areas of the middle Rio Grande valley and the eastern
slopes of New Mexico should be affected today. This activity should
continue nearly every afternoon, providing some potential for
convective activity as rainfall associated with this system
helps to alleviate some of the adverse impacts of the persistent
drought that has plagued the region.
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for eastern New Mexico due to
monsoonal activity. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over
southern Colorado, much of New Mexico, southeast Texas and southern
For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over southwest New Mexico, as well as over extreme
southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. Lighter amounts of MAP are
forecast over southern Colorado, the western two thirds of New
Mexico, the middle and upper Texas Gulf coastal areas, and southern
For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande around the
Taos NM area including the New Mexico/Colorado border region. Lighter
amounts of MAP are forecast over southern Colorado, the northwestern
third of New Mexico, over and near the Texas Gulf coastal areas into
east Texas, and Louisiana.
For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande including
southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico. Lighter amounts of MAP
are forecast over most of Colorado, much of New Mexico, southeast
Texas and southern Louisiana.
Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 5% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and
37% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the
drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the
drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More
rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico, but over Texas
rainfall amounts will be minimal and will be concentrated mainly along
and near the Gulf coast. Therefore, no significant runoff is expected
the next 5 days.
The Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) is forecast to remain around
flood stage for the next couple days. River responses elsewhere across
the Neches River Basin are below forecast criteria levels.
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other WGRFC river forecast locations are below bankfull level.
Significant rainfall is not forecast through the end of the forecast
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment:
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: