Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231636
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1036 AM CST THU FEB 23 2017

                VALID FEBRUARY 23 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28

...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATE WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to continue to build over
Texas bringing dry weather conditions to most of the WGRFC area.
The ridge will continue to bring dry weather over the next few
days. The only chance for precipitation will be over southwestern
Colorado into New Mexico.

A low pressure system will be moving quickly across northern New
Mexico and southern Colorado today. This disturbance will continue
to spread some light rain and snow into the higher elevations of
northwestern New Mexico and southwest Colorado, but is not forecast
to impact the remainder of the WGRFC area.  As this low moves over
the central plains a cold front will progress southward tonight into
Friday. However, the atmosphere will be so dry the front will pass
without producing any rainfall although there will be a big
temperature change tomorrow in comparison to today.

On Friday a strong zonal flow of air is forecast to develop across
the WGRFC area.  This zonal flow is very dry, thus no rainfall is
forecast from Friday through Saturday. Rain chances do increase
towards the end of the weekend with a return of onshore flow from
the gulf interacting with an approaching dry line.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches
along the ARK-LA-TEX region.

Rainfall continued to improve the soil moisture conditions across
much of Texas. The last U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas showed the
area considered to be abnormally dry was at 8.4%.  Also, 2% of Texas
was experiencing moderate drought conditions and  less than 1% was in
severe drought. In New Mexico the drought monitor shows around 13% of
the state experiencing  abnormally dry conditions, with 2.5%
remaining in moderate drought. The rainfall forecast the next few
days will not produce new or additional runoff over the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The lower Guadalupe River at DuPont (DUPT2) is forecast to crest
above flood stage due to recent heavy rainfall, but the remainder
of the Guadalupe is expected to remain below minor flood criteria.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The West Fork Trinity River near Jacksboro (JAKT2) crested into
minor flood levels over the past two days from heavy rains in the
extreme upper headwaters reaches. Bedias Creek near Madison (MDST2)
has crested below  minor flood levels and is in recession.  The
Trinity River at  Riverside (RVRT2) has leveled off from backwater
effects since Lake  Livingston increased releases to maintain pool
around 131.8 feet.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Rains last week over parts of the Brazos provided beneficial wetting
rains to the area with some locations going out of banks for a brief
time.  The Navasota is still near bankfull but expected to fall
slowly after this weekend.  The Brazos mainstem from Hempstead and
points downstream are still experiencing higher flows as well.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most of Texas saw some beneficial rain this past weekend which will
keep soils saturated for a bit.  No heavy rain in the forecast so no
flooding is expected in the forecast period.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


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