National Weather Service Text Product Display

Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
AGUS74 KFWR 191547
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1046 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

                    VALID JUNE 19 THROUGH JUNE 24

...A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A large complex of thunderstorms is currently moving across the
Texas Panhandle. This system is expected to continue moving towards
the southeast for the next couple of hours. As it moves, the complex
should slowly begin to weaken and not pose a threat to any of the
major river basins. Elsewhere, an area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms was noted this morning over portions of southeast
Texas. This activity is very light and is not expected to cause any
issues. Overall, precipitation across the WGRFC area will begin to
taper off later today, as a ridge of high pressure builds and slides
toward the east. Thereafter, warmer and drier weather is expected
for the end of the week and the weekend.

For areas west, the ridge will not be strong enough to completely
squelch the monsoonal moisture over New Mexico and Far West Texas.
This pattern will persist through the week.

For the tropics, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is continuing
advisories for Tropical Depression 2. Current guidance from the NHC
has this system strengthening to a Tropical Storm in the next 24
hours. At this time, this system is not expected to significantly
affect the WGRFC region. However, we will continue to
monitor and will update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of the Texas
Panhandle and East Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

The ongoing drought remains entrenched across a large part of the
WGRFC area.  About 60 percent of Texas remains in severe drought,
or worse, with 15 percent classified as exceptional drought. In
New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread, with 98
percent of the state in severe drought, or worse, with nearly 45
percent classified as exceptional drought.  Some runoff is possible
in the stronger thunderstorms.  However, no widespread significant
runoff is expected the next five days across the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Nueces Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Flood flows at Asherton (ASRT2) have now risen into major flood, but
are expected to crest overnight.  The flood wave will move through
Cotulla (COTT2) and now expected to crest within major flood over
the weekend.  Further downstream, this wave will eventually reach
Tilden (TILT2) causing minor flood conditions by middle of next week
and likely to crest within moderate flood through the following
weekend. The biggest unknown is how much of the flood wave will
become attenuated from channel losses through aquifer recharge
zones.  Current forecasts are based on a conservative estimates of
channel loss, therefore any changes to forecast crest heights would
likely be decreased.  No additional rainfall is expected for the
next 5 days for this area.


...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Another round of scattered showers over the last 24 hours, but this
time across far eastern Texas and upper Texas coast.  In general,
while some smaller streams and tributaries are experiencing rises
associated with recent rainfall, most river flows are near or below
normal conditions across the WGRFC area. No significant rainfall or
flooding is expected within the next 5 days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

MCCANTS


$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
