Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 071654
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1053 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

                VALID FEBRUARY 7 THROUGH FEBRUARY 12

...A DRY SPELL OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A rather strong upper air disturbance moved from north Texas to
northern Florida past 24 hours.  This storm produced showers and a
few thunderstorms over roughly the eastern third of the state into
western Louisiana.  Since atmospheric moisture was limited all the
rainfall amounts were around a half inch or less.  This storm exited
the WGRFC area last evening and the rainfall ended.

A large high pressure system is forming along the west coast of the
U.S. this morning.  This ridge will persist and move slowly east for
several days. By Friday this ridge will be along and just west of the
Rocky Mountains.  As a result, a northwesterly upper air flow will be
the predominant weather feature over our region.  This northwesterly
upper air flow may have minor upper air disturbances rippling through
it, but atmospheric moisture will be so limited that no precipitation
will result.  Therefore,  the weather will be dry across the WGRFC
area from today through at least Friday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Soil moisture has begun to decrease and soils have become somewhat
drier due to only light precipitation falling and warmer than normal
temperatures occurring of late.  As a result, it would take a bit
more rainfall than usual for significant runoff to occur. Over Texas,
2% of the state is categorized as abnormally dry, but this amount is
expected to increase given the current dry weather pattern.  Over New
Mexico, 9% of the state is abnormally dry, and that is mostly
confined to the western portions of the state.  No precipitation is
expected over the next 5 days so no runoff will occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Sites  above criteria are Deweyville (DWYT2) on the lower Sabine,
Carrollton (CART2) on the Elm Fork River (Trinity Basin), and Moss
Bluff (MBFT2) on the lower Trinity River. No rainfall is forecast in
the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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