Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 261546
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1045 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2017

                    VALID JUNE 26 THROUGH JULY 1

...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BEFORE DRY AIR RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The chance for fairly widespread rain over eastern New Mexico into
the Texas panhandle region continues today after a couple of very
active weather days with strong storms, heavy downpours and
localized flooding.

In addition, with the availability of deep gulf moisture and slow
moving storms, central and south Texas will have increasing
chances for showers and storms as the day progresses. The potential
exists for high rainfall accumulations and as a result, localized
flash flooding.

As the week progresses, dry air begins to move into the WGRFC`s
area as a sub-tropical ridge builds in from the west. As a
result, shower chances begin decreasing from west to east
across the WGRFC`s area, beginning later tomorrow into the
early weekend.

Finally, forecast rainfall today and tomorrow may lead to heavy
downpours and localized flooding as a result of any slow moving
storms and convective complexes.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for of New
Mexico and the panhandle of Texas. MAP amounts of between 0.50
and 1.00 inch are forecast over central and south Texas along
the Gulf Coast.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.50 of
an inch are forecast over south southeast Texas along the Gulf
Coast.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00
inch are forecast over southeast Texas along the Gulf Coast.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.50
of an inch are forecast extreme southeast Texas along the LA
border.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 27%, and roughly 5% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions. In New Mexico, 25% of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with about 7%
of the state in the moderate drought category.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) is
forecast to remain near minor flood stage as Toledo Bend
Reservoir continues power generation until further notice.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Trinity River at Dallas has receded and is now passing
through Rosser (RSRT2) keeping the site in action stage.

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Village Creek near Kountze (KOUT2) higher than normal (action stage)
criteria levels due to rainfall from Cindy.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall remains in the forecast but amounts are lighter
and more isolated and therefore pose little river flood
threat over the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


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