Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 161606
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1105 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

                  VALID AUGUST 16 THROUGH AUGUST 21

...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE WGRFC
AREA THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A slight shift has occurred in the overall weather pattern the past
24 hours.  The frontal boundary which was over north Texas has moved
northward as a warm front and is out of our region.  Also, troughs of
low pressure have started digging further west, with one disturbance
located over southeast Colorado this morning.  Ahead of this trough
an area of showers and thunderstorms developed over southwest Texas
Tuesday which produced locally heavy rainfall.  The leftover showers
moved across the western parts of north Texas this morning.  Other
showers were noted over portions of New Mexico and Colorado as well.
The heaviest rain the past 24 hours was over southwest Texas where
the largest rain gage readings were over 1.50 inches west southwest
of Iraan and just under 1.50 inches southeast of Rocksprings.

As troughs of low pressure develop over the western U.S., a high
pressure ridge is developing over southeast Texas. This high will
bring a drying trend to especially central and south Texas the next
five days, while precipitation is forecast to persist around the
periphery of this ridge.  The best chances for rainfall will be over
extreme northern Texas and Oklahoma through tonight, from the Texas
panhandle eastward into the Red River valley Thursday and Friday, and
over our western basins in New Mexico, southern Colorado, and far
southwest Texas Saturday and Sunday.  The precipitation will not pose
a mainstem river flood risk for this region.

The region will not see much change in this weather pattern into
early next week. The ridge of high pressure will spread out across
much of the southern U.S. including Texas. Therefore, with the
exception of far west Texas into New Mexico and Colorado, the region
will experience seasonably hot, dry weather. Some thunderstorms may
occur each day as well over southeast Texas and Louisiana due to the
sea breeze into Monday morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the parts of
north Texas along and near the Red River, as well as over parts of
northern Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over the northwestern third of Texas, southeast Texas
into most of Louisiana, and far southwest Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for most of the Texas panhandle eastward to the
area along the Red River, for far southwest Texas, and west central
Louisiana.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast
over the northern half of Texas, southeast Texas into Louisiana, far
southwest Texas, extreme eastern New Mexico, and southeastern
Colorado.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over far southwest Texas, the Texas panhandle
into northeastern New Mexico and southern Colorado, and over
northeast Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for portions of central and southwest New Mexico
into northern Mexico, as well as over southwest Colorado.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the eastern
quarter of Texas into Louisiana, far west Texas, most of New Mexico,
and southern Colorado.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 20%, and roughly 5% of Texas is
experiencing moderate (or worse) drought conditions.  In New Mexico,
only 1% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.  The
rainfall forecast the next five days will not be heavy enough to
produce significant runoff over the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The headwaters of the Sabine are still experiencing minor flood
levels after recent heavy rainfall. Lake Fork is now over its
conservation pool stage and releasing enough water to cause minor
flooding along Lake Fork Creek.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Luis Leon reservoir in Mexico is releasing water which will keep the
Rio Grande higher than normal through the Presidio and Big Bend
regions.  Thunderstorms over the next few days may cause additional
brief rises above action or even flood stage since the river is so
high already.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other mainstem sites and tributaries are at seasonal flow levels
with no additional flooding expected for the next few days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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