Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 011553
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1053 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

                  VALID OCTOBER 1 THROUGH OCTOBER 6

...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO EAST, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTH
TEXAS LATER THIS WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Another day of isolated showers and thunderstorms along the dry line
as daytime heating and abundant moisture will set up a favorable
environment this afternoon and evening.

The large scale pattern will change significantly on Thursday.  A
fairly strong cold front will impact the area courtesy of a large
upper level storm system that should eject into the Plains States.
Widespread significant rainfall is expected Thursday, mainly for East
and Southeast Texas.  As the front sags south, the focus for
thunderstorm development will also shift south.  Showers and
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for Deep South Texas into
the weekend.

Drier and more seasonable weather will return later this weekend.

For longer range interests, the tropics over the East Pacific remain
quite active.  Another system is expected to develop off of the Mexico
Coast this week.  This system will be named Simon if it does indeed
develop.  All official tropical forecasts come from the National
Hurricane Center.  WGRFC will be monitor moisture plumes and
connections to this system.  Even if the track does not impact the
WGRFC area of responsibility, mid and upper level conditions could
stream deep moisture into Northern Mexico.  At this time, reservoir
releases from Mexico are driving higher flows for the Rio Grande
(Rio Bravo) from Presidio through the Big Bend.  We will monitor this
situation and will update our forecasts if necessary.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are
forecast for East and Southeast Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for the remainder of Texas east of a line from
Wichita Falls to Del Rio.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for Deep South Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of  0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for Deep South Texas.

Drought conditions are slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico.
Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while
less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought
conditions are impacting less than 30% of New Mexico and 29% of
Texas.  No significant runoff is expected over the area for the
forecast period.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Flows down the Rio Conchos into the Rio Grande continue to cause higher
than normal levels near Presidio.  Flows downstream of Luis Leon
Reservoir are slowly decreasing.  No significant rainfall is forecast
in the Rio Conchos basin in the next 5 days. WGRFC continues to
monitor hydrologic conditions in the Rio Conchos basin.

...Pecos Basin...
Flows from last weeks flooding on the Pecos River in the vicinity Red
Bluff Reservoir continue downstream.  River levels are rising at
Grandfalls (PGFT2) and at Girvin (GIVT2).  Minor flood levels are not
forecast.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other basins are expected to remain near normal flow conditions.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER


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