Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 201631
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1031 AM CST TUE FEB 20 2018

                VALID FEBRUARY 20 THROUGH FEBRUARY 25

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front is currently moving in a southeasterly direction
across the state of Texas.  This system is forecast to slowly
progress across the state over the next couple days.  This system is
tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Widespread rainfall with localized heavy downpours is forecast with
this system over Northeast Texas, where soils have been primed from
recent rainfall.  This potentially heavy rainfall is expected to
continue over the next several days.  Significant rises are possible
over the upper and middle Sabine and Neches river systems, along
with other tributaries located in northeast Texas.

This active weather pattern is expected to continue into the
weekend.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast over northeast Texas.  MAP
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are also forecast over central and east
Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 3 inches
are forecast over east Texas with the heavier amounts in northeast
Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are also forecast over south
Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
forecast over northeast Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
also forecast over central and east Texas.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
forecast over north and northeast Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1
inch are also forecast over central and east Texas.

NOTE - This product will no longer be generated after March 1, 2018.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Looking at 24 hours of rainfall, Greenville and Quinlan could
potentially rise into moderate flood stage later tonight and into
tomorrow.  More rainfall is in forecast so updates will need to be
made as the event progresses.  Sabine River near Mineola as well as
Rabbit Creek near Kilgore also are forecast to reach minor flood stage
from the rainfall.  Overall, expect moderate impacts to smaller creeks
and tributaries in the upper Sabine, with the mainstem itself staying
in minor flood.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding forecast for the upper portion of the Neches with 24
hours of rainfall, but more rainfall is in the forecast so more sites
have potential for flooding as well.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Heavy rain is expected over the next three days from the Hill Country
up through NE Texas.  Any site in this area has the potential of seeing
minor flooding, and isolated smaller creeks and tribs could see more
significant impacts.  This water will be routed downstream through the
week causing more rises but no extended impacts.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

NOTE - This product will no longer be generated after March 1, 2018.

All information in this product can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/quick_briefing

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

SHULTZ


$$





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