Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1210 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

...Precipitation...

North Dakota and northwest Minnesota had 5 to 10 inches of
snowfall yesterday, with average water content around a 0.50 to
0.75 inches.  To the east and south of this heavy snow area
amounts were mainly in the 1 to 3 inch range across the rest of
northern Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin, with water contents
around a quarter inch.

Areas that had lighter snow and rain at times include southeast
Minnesota and the northwest half of Iowa over to north central
Wisconsin, upper and northern lower Michigan. Precipitation totals
here averaged a tenth inch or less.

Also last night patches of light rain that averaged around a tenth
inch or less were reported over the southeast halves of Missouri
and Illinois, while the the heavier rainfall was just beyond the
NCRFC boundary.

In the forecast...the snowstorm will continue today mainly along
the northern part of our region. Across North Dakota and northern
Minnesota expect around a half inch of water content, and in
Wisconsin to upper Michigan and around to southeast lower Michigan
amounts should average one to two tenths of an inch.  Then by
Thursday morning another tenth to quarter inch of precipitation is
forecast in northeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota to upper
Michigan, and along the western shore region of lower Michigan.

...Hydrologic Conditions...

Rain and melt over the past two weeks has caused rivers to rise
across much of the region.  In Minnesota, slow responding rivers
are finally nearing crests, including the Crow River - above
bankfull stage at Delano - and the Mississippi River, which is
causing bankfull conditions on the St. Croix at Stillwater.

The rise on the upper Mississippi will continue to travel
downstream toward St. Louis over the next week. While no flooding
is expected on the major rivers, flows are well above normal for
this time of year, leaving the system vulnerable to future runoff.
The USGS lists streamflows in the 90th and above percentiles for
nearly all tributaries north of a line from Des Moines to Quad
Cities to Milwaukee.  The Mississippi is above the 75th percentile
all the way to the confluence with the Ohio.

With very cold air finally moving in over the region, there will
be an increased potential for freeze-up ice jams in the next
several days and weeks.  People with assets on or near rivers that
are prone to ice jamming should be aware and prepared.  Ice jam
flooding can happen fast with very little warning.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc


Emergency Call Back List: JDT JMP RHR

If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.


$$

...rhr/jmp...





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