Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FLUS45 KFGZ 252246
HWOFGZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
313 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-260700-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
313 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Two systems are then forecast to impact the region Sunday through
Tuesday.

System #1: Sunday will see a quick shot of precipitation across
northern Arizona. Snow levels will generally be in the 4500-5500
ft. range with snow accumulations generally less than one half an
inch. Temperatures will continue to be below normal.

System #2: Monday afternoon through Tuesday will see the
potential for appreciable precipitation accumulations. The latest
model runs continue to paint a wet picture for the Monday-Tuesday
period resulting in increasing confidence for increasing
precipitation chances.

The greatest precipitation amounts are forecast over areas south
of I-40 primarily over Yavapai and Gila counties, and along the
Mogollon Rim. Snow levels are forecast to be in the 5500-6000 ft.
range. Currently it looks like snow amounts along the Mogollon Rim
will be appreciable, with Flagstaff forecast to receive around 6
inches, Show Low around 2 inches, and Alpine around 4 inches. Snow
amounts in the Chuskas also look to be appreciable, with Window
Rock forecast to receive around 5 inches, and Buffalo Pass north
of Lukachukai around 6 inches. These forecast amounts will likely
change with future model runs.

For now it appears that little to no snow accumulations are
expected for Prescott or Payson. However, rainfall amounts near
one inch will likely cause rises in creeks and streams in Yavapai
and Gila counties. No major flooding impacts are expected at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions to the NWS Flagstaff Office at 1-888-745-1637.

$$

TM



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