Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 310724
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
324 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

GOES IR IMGRY INDC POST-TROPICAL BONNIE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE PAST SEVL HOURS...AND CRNT SFC RPRTS INDC
ALSO INDC THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. ASCAT DATA FM
0246 UTC INDC UP TO 25 KT E OF THE LOW...NR THE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF STREAM. IN ADDITION...CRNT LGTNG DATA
AND THE ERN EDGE OF THE RADAR SHOW CONVECTION STARTING TO DVLP
S OF THE LOW CENTER...AND MAY INDC TPRCL CHARACTERISTICS COULD BE
DVLPG AGAIN...ALBEIT IN A LIMITED FASHION. THE 00Z
GFS/ECWMF/UKMET/GEM ALL INDC THE LOW WL DRIFT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE GFS/UKMET AGREE WELL WITH
MOVING IT NE AFTERWARDS...THRU NRN NT2 ALONG A FRONTAL BNDRY. THE
GFS SLOWED SOME FROM THE 18Z RUN...BUT SEEMS RSNBL WITH THE
SRN EXTENT OF A UPR TROF MOVING IN FROM THE W SLOWLY STEERING IT
TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECWMF/GEM ALSO AGREE...BUT KEEP THE
LOW ALONG THE SC COAST...BEFORE WKNG IT TO A TROF ON SAT. THE
PREV FCST FAVORED THE GFS IDEA...AND THE 00Z RUNS SEEMS TO BE A
DECENT CMPRMS AS IT SLOWS THE TRACK OF PT BONNIE...SO PLANNNING ON
FLWG FOR THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...PLANNING ON BOOSTING WINDS SLIGHTLY
NR THE LOW...AS THE GFS WAS INITIALIZED A TAD LOW WHEN COMPARED
WITH THE DATA.

OTRW...THE CRNT GOES WV IMGRY INDC AN UPR RDG OVR THE WRN
ATLC EXTENDING INTO NE NT2...AND A WK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
THROUGH SE CANADA TWD THE COAST. THE LTST NCEP SFC ANALYS INDC A
CDFNT JUST ABT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ASSOC WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE 00Z MDLS ALL INDC WK FRNTL BNDRY WL
MOVE OVER NT1 TDA AND QUICKLY WKN...FLWD BY A SECOND WK SYSTEM
TNGT INTO WED. THE 00Z GFS/ECWMF ARE IN RELATIVELY GUD AGRMT ON
THE TMG OF THESE SYSTEMS...AND THE GFS HAS CONSISTENLY INDC WINDS
TO 25 KT IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FIRST BNDRY TDA. THIS SEEMS
OVERDONE SLIGHTLY...ESP OVER THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE COLD
SHELF WATERS...SO PLANNING ON CAPPING WINDS AT 20 KT.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PT BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E
THROUGH THE NRN NT2 WATERS THU INTO FRI ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK SECOND FRONTAL BNDRY...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NT2 BEHIND
IT. THE 00Z GFS INDC ANOTHER VERY WEAK SYSTEM WL MOVE INTO NT1
SAT...HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER RUNS...AND IS SOMEWHAT
CLOASE TO THE 12Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET SOLNS ARE
A BIT SLOWER WITH THE BNDRY...AND WKN IT FASTER. ATTM UNCERTAINTY
IS FAIRLY HIGH...SO PLANNING ON STAYING WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR THE
FCST...WHICH KEEPS IT CLOSE TO CONTINUITY.

SEAS...THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECWMF WAM MDLS HAVE BOTH
INITIALIZED THE WV HTS RSNBL WELL. ATTM PLANNING ON STAYING CLOSE
TO THE 00Z WW3...WHICH REFLECTS PREFERRED 00Z GFS WX MDL TRENDS.
HOWEVER...PLANNING ON BOOSTING SEAS NEAR PT BONNIE SLIGHTLY...TO
ACCT FOR CRNT CNVCTV ACTIVITY DVLPG NEAR THE LOW.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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