Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 221845
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

NO SIG DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THRU THE SHORT TERM...WITH
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME WITH PSBL TRPCL
CYCLONE LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD. POPULATED WIND GRIDS WITH 30M
WINSD FROM THE 12Z GFS THRU 12Z TUE...THEN WENT WITH 10M WINDS
FROM THE 06Z GFS FROM 12Z TUE THRU THE REMANDER OF THE PERIOD.

NO CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM AS STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CNTRL
NT2 WATERS BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE S TOWARDS THE SRN NT2 WATERS
TONIGHT AND SAT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S THRU THE SRN
NT2 WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN MOVE S OF THE FCST AREA BY
SUN NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NELY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WENT
WITH 30M WINDS TO GET A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT IN THE NELY FLOW THRU
MON NIGHT.

MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST AS GLOBAL MODELS
STILL UNSURE ABOUT FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A PSBL TRPCL
CYCLONE TO AFFECT THE AREA. LATEST GFS AND THE PREVIOUS ECMWF HAS
SYSTEM RECURVING INTO OR JUST E OF THE OFFSHR WATERS TUE AND WED.
LATEST UKMET AND PREVIOUS CANADIAN STILL KEEP SYSTEM S OF THE
AREA. AS A COMPROMISE...WENT WITH THE 10M WINDS FROM THE 06Z
GFS...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE TRACK AGREED TO ON THE NHC/WPC
MEDIUM RANGE CALL THIS AFTN. DID HAVE TO SLOW DOWN SYSTEM BY 6
HOURS AFTER 06Z WED...AS 06Z GFS WAS GETTING A BIT TOO FAST. THIS
TRACK WILL TAKE SYSTEM JUST E OF THE OFFSHR WATERS TUE AND WED.
WILL NOT HAVE ANY GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WILL KEEP WINDS TO 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. AS A RESULT OF THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...VERY LOW
CONFDC IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.

.SEAS...WNA VERSION OF WWIII WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS.
POPULATED WAVE GRIDS WITH 12Z WNA THRU 12Z TUE...THEN WITH 06Z WNA
THEREAFTER. LIMITED WAVE HEIGHTS TO 14 FT AROUND THE TROPICAL LOW
TUE AND WED FOR NOW. DID ALSO UP SEAS IN THE GLF STREAM BY 10
PERCENT SUN AND MON IN THE NELY FLOW.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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