Marine Interpretation Message
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AGPN40 KWNM 010354
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
854 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

JASON PASS FM 23Z HAD A SWATH ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL AREAS OF CA
INTO THE OR WTRS. MAX SEAS WERE TO 7 FT ALG THE COASTAL AREAS OF
THE OR WTRS. SEAS WERE CLOSE TO THE WWIII/ECMWF WV GUID ALG AREA
OF COVERAGE.

COASTAL TROF ALG THE NRN AND CNTRL AREAS OF CA GRADUALLY
INTENSIFIES THRU SUN AND SUN NGT WHILE HIGH PRES RDG RMNS TO THE
W OF THE WTRS. GFS 30M BL WINDS APRS TO BEST REFLECT ANTICIPATED
CONDS WITH STGST WINDS TO 30 KT ALG THE NRN CA WTRS AND ADJACENT
AREAS. FOR THE UPDATE LTL ADJSTMTS WL BE MADE WITH PREV FCST
LOOKING GOOD.


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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...THE LATE AM HI RES ASCAT-B PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF 25
KT N WINDS EXTENDING FROM COASTAL SW OREGON S TO OFF THE NOCAL
COAST WITH WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE OVR THE OFF WTRS.
THIS IS IN GUD AGREEMENT WITH THE ONGOING OPC FCST. OVERALL...
LITTLE CHANGE APPEARS NEEDED TO THE PREV FCST FOR THE AFTN FCST
PACKAGE. THE REGION WILL REMAIN LOCATED BETWEEN A HIGH PRES RIDGE
W OF THE WTRS...AND A LOW PRES TROF EXTENDING FROM THE SW OREG
COAST S AND SE ALONG THE CALIF COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
PRES GRAD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
SOMEWHAT TNGT INTO SUN NGT...AND THEN WEAKEN MON AND MON NGT AS A
WK COLD FRONT MOVES SE OVR PZ5 WTRS. THE FRONT WILL LKLY DSIPT
TUE AND TUE NGT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING W OF THE WTRS ALLOWING
FOR WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN AT THAT TIME.

WEATHER...WE WILL ADD A MENTION OF ISO TSTMS TO THE OFF WTRS ADJ
THE SEW CWF FOR FRI AS MDL GUID SHOWS A 500 MB VORT MAX SLIDING
NE OVR THESE WTRS FRI. ALSO WE WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO OFF ZONES
ADJ TO THE CALIF COASTAL WTRS LT TNGT AND AGAIN AT TIMES INTO SAT
TO MATCH NEARBY CWF.

MODELS...THE 12Z MDLS ARE IN PRETTY GUD AGREEMENT THRU EARLY NEXT
WK. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN STAY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS AND THE GFS 30M
WINDS FOR THE OFF WTRS THRU SUN. FOR SUN NGT THRU TUE NGT WE WILL
SWITCH TO USING THE 12Z ECMWF...AND BOOST THE ECMWF WINDS BY 15
PERCENT OR SO...MAINLY FOR WTRS OFF THE SW OREG AND NOCAL COAST
WHERE WE EXPECT THE PRES GRAD TO REMAIN THE STRONGEST EARLY NEXT
WK. THIS WILL KEEP MAX WINDS AT 30 KT FOR THESE WTRS FOR MOST OF
THE FCST PACKAGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR GALES OVR THESE WTRS
OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND AGAIN BY TUE OR SO OF NEXT WK. AT THIS
TIME CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO ADD ANY GALES TO THE OFF FCST.

.SEAS...THE 12Z ENP VERSION OF THE WV WATCH III APPEARS TO BE
INITIALIZING WELL OVR THE OFF WTRS PER THE LATEST OBS. WE WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE ENP WW3 MDL GUID THRU SUN...AND THEN SWITCH TO
THE ECMWF WAM WV GUID FOR SUN NGT THRU TUE NGT. OVERALL...NO
MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE AFTN PACKAGE FROM THE PREV FEW OPC FCSTS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NA


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER ROWLAND/MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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