Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 250916
SWOD48
SPC AC 250915

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD /SUNDAY - DAY 4/ OVER THE
CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WITH A SEEMINGLY QUIESCENT PATTERN FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE FOLLOWING THEREAFTER.  MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A WEAKENING TENDENCY IN THE EVOLUTION OF A LOWER-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NRN MEXICO AND ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION ON SUNDAY /DAY 4/.  MODIFICATION OF THE CP
AIRMASS OVER THE GULF WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE SUNDAY AND SOME THREAT
FOR SEVERE IS PLAUSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES.
HOWEVER...THIS SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL GIVEN
PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS TO WARRANT A 15-PERCENT AREA.  ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE NRN GULF BASIN CONTRIBUTING TO
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF AND MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE EXHIBITING STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STOUT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES DURING THE
EARLY- TO MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME.

..SMITH.. 12/25/2014



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