Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 300858
SWOD48
SPC AC 300857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW LOCATED OVER THE NWRN THIRD OF THE NATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MODELS
MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A BROAD
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY/DAY 4 AND THURSDAY/DAY 5 FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
EWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. FROM FRIDAY/DAY 6 TO SUNDAY/DAY
8...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP IN THE NRN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH FLOW IS FORECAST IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN THE NRN PLAINS
BUT DETAILS CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO ADD A
15 PERCENT CONTOUR ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 08/30/2015



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