Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 230847
SWOD48
SPC AC 230846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST. A
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AT 12Z/SAT SHOULD DAMPEN SOMEWHAT AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE...LIKELY OVERLAPPING PARTS OF A WARM/MOIST
SECTOR THAT WILL BE SHUNTED S BY A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. AT LEAST
MINIMAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE APPARENT D4-5 ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO
MID-MS/TN VALLEYS WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE ROBUST WITHIN AN EML
PLUME. BUT MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY IN THIS TIME FRAME REMAINS TOO
LOW TO RELIABLY DELINEATE A 30 PERCENT OR GREATER AREA.

..GRAMS.. 07/23/2014



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