Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 310858
SWOD48
SPC AC 310857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DECENT AGREEMENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH BOTH FORECASTING EWD ADVANCE OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AN ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE PLAINS STATES DAY 4...AND
THE OH VALLEY DAY 5.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE -- AND THUS MEAGER INSTABILITY -- SHOULD PROHIBIT
APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT/LATER IN THE
PERIOD...REINFORCEMENT OF A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS E OF THE ROCKIES
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL E OF THE ROCKIES.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODELS DEPICT A VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHING THE
PAC NW...LIKELY RESULTING IN A CONVECTIVE INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...MEAGER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED ATTM SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND VIRTUALLY ALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 10/31/2014



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