Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 190103
SWODY1
SPC AC 190100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS/NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...

...PLAINS...
IN ACCORDANCE WITH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND A GENERAL
PREVALENCE OF 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS /WITH SOME LOWER 70S ACROSS OK
INTO EAST-CENTRAL KS/...00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SAMPLE A VERY
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED SEVERE TSTMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE INCLUDING INTENSE
SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID-EVENING...WITH
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS REMAINING A DISTINCT CONCERN WITH THE MOST
PROBABLE AREA FOR A STRONG TORNADO BEING IN CENTRAL KS.

HOWEVER...A READILY APPARENT TREND IS TOWARD SEVERAL GROUPINGS OF
UPSCALE INTENSIFY/CONGEALING STORMS FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OK
INTO CENTRAL KS/WESTERN NEB EARLY THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL...THIS IS
LIKELY A FACTOR OF BACKED /SOUTHWESTERLY/ MID-LEVEL WINDS AND
SOMEWHAT WEAK HIGH LEVEL FLOW PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS.
ACCORDINGLY...UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH IS LIKELY THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. ALREADY NOTED IN DERIVED WIND DATA...THIS WILL BE AIDED
BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS OK/KS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEB AND OTHER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY. DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD EVOLVE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF OK INTO CENTRAL/PARTS EASTERN KS AND SOUTHEAST
NEB...WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR/INTENSE LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTING BOW ECHO MATURATION/POSSIBLE MESOVORTICES CAPABLE OF A
FEW TORNADOES ASIDE FROM A DISTINCT WIND THREAT/SOME HAIL.

...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TSTMS TO
PERSIST OR DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG ELEVATED MIX
LAYER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME HAIL MIGHT BE POSSIBLE...BUT
GENERAL PRESENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDING/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY KEEP ANY SUCH POTENTIAL VERY MARGINAL.

..GUYER.. 05/19/2013
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