Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 030544
SWODY1
SPC AC 030542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2016

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND TONIGHT IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

...TX COASTAL PLAINS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
WESTERN MEXICO TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 40 TO 55 KNOT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP MAINTAIN MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FAHRENHEIT TODAY AND A
POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SURFACE HEATING.

IN ADDITION...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHICH SHOULD
ENABLE SOME STORM ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGER CELLS. THE THINKING
IS THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST.
IN SPITE OF A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AT 21Z/SATURDAY SHOW MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY
AND POOR LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 12/03/2016

$$


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