Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS01 KWNS 280045
SPC AC 280043
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OK
TO SOUTHERN MO...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening from
eastern Oklahoma into the Missouri Ozark Plateau. Isolated large
hail may be noted with the strongest updrafts.
...Eastern OK to Southern MO...
Convection that developed over northeastern TX along an early-day
outflow has mostly dissipated this evening. One remnant supercell
over Camp County is weakening with loss of daytime heating and
further development is becoming less likely. However, farther north
across eastern OK/northwest AR, low-level warm advection is
generating deep convection. Updrafts are now producing lightning
and scattered thunderstorms should increase in areal coverage with
movement expected toward the Ozark Plateau. Mid-level lapse rates
are quite steep across this region with values on the order of 8
C/km and 00z sounding from OUN exhibits MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg. It
appears hail could accompany the strongest storms as vertical shear
supports organized rotating updrafts.
Remnants of central Gulf states MCS have progressed into southeast
AL/southwest GA. Eastward momentum should allow this activity to
progress toward the GA/SC coast later this evening. While mid-level
lapse rates are relatively steep across this region, marginal
moisture and the lack of large-scale support suggest the severe
threat will be limited.