Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 220050
SWODY1
SPC AC 220048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER LATE THIS EVENING.  DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

...OH VALLEY...

WV IMAGERY AND LONGER RADAR LOOPS DEPICT MID-LEVEL VORT OVER SRN
LOWER MI MOVING SEWD TOWARD WRN LAKE ERIE.  SWRN EXTENSION OF
ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
UPWARD GROWTH TO CONVECTION OVER NERN IL/NWRN INDIANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED INTO AN MCS OVER NRN INDIANA
AND SHOULD PROGRESS WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW TOWARD THE OH RIVER
LATER THIS EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

STRONG HEATING CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ALONG DRYLINE
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NRN KS.  THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SERN NEB THIS EVENING
WITH A PROPENSITY TO BECOME ELEVATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SERN NEB INTO IA/NRN IL
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES AND
WEAK UVV SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.  DESPITE THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION 5 PERCENT SEVERE
APPEARS WARRANTED FOR WIND/HAIL.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...

WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPED INVOF THIS FEATURE AND OVERTURNING HAS NOW STABILIZED MUCH
OF THE REGION.  A FEW ROBUST STORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PIMA COUNTY
BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.

..DARROW.. 08/22/2014




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