Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 261651
SWODY2
SPC AC 261650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STILL
APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE CENTERED EAST SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND IN THE PROCESS OF
OCCLUDING...WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WELL EAST OF NORTH
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.  MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT ANY APPRECIABLE
MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...WITHIN/ABOVE THE COLD SECTOR WILL ALSO
REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD...AS THE INITIAL CYCLONE SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKENS...WHILE A NEW CYCLONE FORMS NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WITH GENERALLY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS
PERSISTING ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

ACROSS THE WEST...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF A SIGNIFICANT
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW /NOW WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA/ WILL CONTINUE
MIGRATING INLAND AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAKENING GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER DURING THIS PERIOD.  IT DOES NOT
APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD POOL
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF VERY WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF NEVADA AND UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND AN
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AND  THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
STILL APPEAR BELOW THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A
CATEGORICAL THUNDER AREA.

..KERR.. 01/26/2015




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