Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO 04N91W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W
TO 04N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO
09N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 135W AND 140W N OF 20N.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS S OF 30N LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND FROM
30N118W TO 25N132W BY SUN MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BATCH OF
20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG
22N BY SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W THROUGH MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWS
MAX N WINDS OF 30 KT...AND SURFACE OBS FROM SALINA CRUZ INDICATE
WINDS HAVE DINISHED SINCE THEN AFTER PEAKING AT 25-30 KT AROUND
1800 UTC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...AND EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT TO MAX AT 30 KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 11 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...
ANOTHER GALE WIND EVENT POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KT LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES WILL RESUME
TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING SUN AND MON NIGHTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL


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