Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE
MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITH INDUCED SEAS OF 14-22 FT ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
GULF WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W. SHIP REPORTS
WERE USED TO HELP DEFINE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS LACKING ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS FRI AFTERNOON...AND BELOW
GALE FORCE WINDS SAT AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS EVENT WILL BE RATHER
LONG DURATION...EXPECT SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL
TO REACH NEAR 113W FROM 01N-14N BETWEEN 94W-113W BY SAT MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 08N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N95W TO 10N121W TO 10N136W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 120W...AND
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE INTO THE THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS
IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO
11-12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A
COLD FRONT FRI. THE NEW FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY IN THE NE
PORTION AS WELL SAT FROM 30N132W TO 24N139W. NW SWELL TO 10-11
FT WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS NW WATERS AND SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT.

1023 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N125W
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS SUPPORTING A SMALL
AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS W OF THE ITCZ AND AN AREA OF COMBINED
SEAS FROM RESIDUAL NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES TO 8-9 FT FROM 09N
TO 17N W OF 126W. THIS AREA OF COMBINED SEAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD
AND SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT.

$$
MUNDELL



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