Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030258
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W/96W S OF 18N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND
99W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W/117W S OF 15N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 114W
AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 110W AND 112W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 118W AND
121W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG 07N86W TO 07N98W TO 11N114W TO 10N120W TO
08N130W TO 09N138W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND
106W...FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 126W AND 133W...AND FROM 07N TO
16N BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
21N140W TO 21N130W TO 21N116W BEYOND 25N112W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 39N136W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO A 31N144W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 10N122W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N119W. THIS TROUGH IS JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE 16N116W/117W TROPICAL WAVE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE WEST OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM 09N122W TO 13N123W TO 21N116W BEYOND 25N112W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N101W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN AND PARTS OF MEXICO FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N135W TO A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N129W TO 20N116W.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
NEAR 15N145W...ESTIMATED BAROMETRIC PRESSURE 981 MB. EXPECT EAST-
TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9
TO 10 FEET OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 139W AND
140W AS THE STARTING CONDITION FOR THE 48-HOUR FORECAST. THE
REST OF THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST CONSIST OF
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 137W AND
140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE
WIND SPEEDS DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER ABOUT THE NEXT 6 HOURS...AND
THE SEA HEIGHTS STILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 14N TO 22N
BETWEEN 139W AND 140W. IT IS GOING TO TAKE ABOUT ANOTHER 18
HOURS OR SO FOR THE REMAINING CONDITIONS OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO
TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF 140W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET DURING THE LATE NIGHT/
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WITH THOSE
CONDITIONS LETTING UP AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY MORNING. THE SAME
CONDITIONS OF EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE ON MONDAY/DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE ON TUESDAY.

THE SWELL THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM 02S SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 111W
AND 120W EVENTUALLY DECAYS...AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS GO AWAY
AFTER ABOUT THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

$$
MT



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