Tropical Weather Discussion
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075
AXPZ20 KNHC 240907
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
532 UTC Sat Jun 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure is embedded within the monsoon trough near 13N97W.
Active convection is noted over this area from 07N to 16N between
92W and 100W. Overnight scatterometer pass depicts a well defined
center of circulation with fresh winds noted over the north
quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and the is a high probability that this
low will develop into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of
days. Heavy rainfall is possible in the Mexican states of Oaxaca
and Guerrero during the next couple of days, and interests along
the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system. For more on the potential for tropical cyclone
development, please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1008 mb low pressure
centered near 13N97W to 09N126W. The ITCZ extends from 09N126W
to 09N134W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 92W and 100W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 100W and 112W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm south of the ITCZ west of 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features for more information on the low pressure
centered a couple of hundred miles south of Puerto Angel,
Mexico.

Elsewhere, high pressure of 1016 mb centered near 26N127W
extends a ridge across the offshore forecast waters. The
overnight scatterometer pass indicate gentle to moderate winds
west of the Baja California peninsula, light to gentle winds off
the coast of southwest Mexico, and gentle to moderate winds over
the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range off the
coast of the Baja California peninsula, 1-2 ft over the Gulf of
California, and 5-6 ft elsewhere. Winds will freshen off the
coast of Baja California Norte later this weekend as high
pressure west of the area slightly strengthens, before decrease
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens. Mainly
gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the Gulf
of California during the weekend with seas generally under 4 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across
most of the region during the forecast period, with the exception
of mainly S winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
Additional pulses of long period southwest swell will continue
to impact the region, but seas will remain generally below 6 ft
during the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1016 mb is centered near 26N127W, while a
surface trough extends over the far northwest waters. Overnight
scatterometer pass indicates gentle to moderate northerly winds
west of the surface trough, light to gentle winds elsewhere north
of the ITCZ, and moderate to locally fresh winds south of the
ITCZ. Seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range generally north of 20N and
west of 125W. Seas will gradually subside through the weekend.

$$
AL



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