Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301029 AAA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON MAY 30 2016

...UPDATING THE DISCUSSION SECTION...

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 86W/87W from 13N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: numerous
strong within 75 nm to the east of the wave, and within 120 nm
to the west of the wave, from 09N to 14N. The surface pressure
gradient near this wave is forecast to become comparatively
weaker during the next 48 hours as the wave moves more to the
west, through a broad area of low pressure.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 14N119W. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 10N to 15N between 115W and 122W.

Convective precipitation: Numerous strong is in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec from 15N to 16N between 93W and 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is along 10N90W to 11N95W, to a 1011 mb low
pressure center that is near 10N99W, to 09N107W, 13N110W, to a
1013 mb low pressure center that is near 14N112W, to 13N115W, to
a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 14N119W, to 10N123W
and 09N126W. The ITCZ continues from 09N126W to 08N133W, beyond
08N140W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong within a 30
nm radius of 13N92W, from 09N to 10N between 108W and 109W, and
from 07N to 08N between 107W and 109W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ
between 89W and 91W.

...DISCUSSION...

A surface ridge is along 12N129W beyond 32N134W. Surface high
pressure covers the eastern Pacific Ocean to the west of the
line from 32N117W to 23N113W to 12N129W beyond 12N140w. A cold
front is still to the west of the far northwestern corner of the
area right now. The front is forecast to be still just to the
west of the area in 24 hours and even in 48 hours. The surface
ridge is forecast to remain during the next 48 hours.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 14N119W. 20 to 25 knot
wind speeds have been observed in ASCAT data during the last 24
hours or so, to the northwest of the low center and to the
southeast of the low center. The sea heights in those areas have
been ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet. The forecast for the low
pressure center during the next few days is for the surface
pressure to remain near 1012 mb, and along the same longitude
more or less, just drifting a bit to the north or south. The 20
to 25 knot wind speeds are forecast to continue during the next
24 hours, and then drop to 20 knots or less during day two. The
convective precipitation that has been around the low center has
been scattered moderate to isolated strong during the last 6 to
8 hours. An area of scattered to numerous strong has been
developing immediately to the east of the low center during the
last hour or so.

Swell of 8 feet to 10 feet will cross the equator again during
the next 24 hours. It will reach 16N at 120W, and still cover
the rest of the area that is between 93W and 132W in an overall
sense. The area of swell is forecast to diminish in coverage,
only from 04N to 11N between 92W and 112W at the end of 48
hours.

$$
mt



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