Hazardous Weather Outlook
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FLUS44 KEPZ 171739
HWOEPZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1139 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-181745-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1139 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS NOT QUITE AS FOCUSED AND RICH OVER
THE REGION AS IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ALL AREAS TO STILL SEE RAIN AND STORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PM HOURS. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SW. THAT IS ALSO WHERE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE. WISH SOME UPPER LEVEL DRYING
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE TODAY. EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL UP TO
PENNY SIZE AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY MUCH OF THE REGION BECOMES DRIER WITH LESSER STORM COVERAGE
AS THE MOISTURE SHIFTS WEST OVER AZ. THIS SHOULD MEAN ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR STORMS EAST AND ISOLATED STORMS WEST. TUESDAY THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO MIGRATE BACK EAST. THUS INCREASED STORM CHANCES
AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING RETURN
FOR TUE PM HOURS. CONTINUE WITH ELEVATED RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE.


TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD PINCHING OFF THE MONSOON
AND HOLDING THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT
REDUCED AND LIMITED TO THE WESTERN AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN ZONES.
MIDWEEK INTO LATE WEEK MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT A PATTERN SHIFT
HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL TO REFOCUS THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK OVER
OUR AREA FOR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE AND AN UPWARD TREND IN HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BE PROACTIVE AND CALL THIS NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AT THE FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF SIGNIFICANT OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING. WE
RELY ON YOUR TIMELY REPORTS TO VERIFY AND GIVE GROUND TRUTH TO OUR
CRITICAL WARNING OPERATIONS.

$$

BIRD





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  • El Paso, TX Weather Forecast Office
  • 7955 Airport Rd
  • Santa Teresa, NM 88008
  • (575) 589-4088
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  • Page last modified: Jul 15th, 2014 19:42 UTC