683
FXUS64 KEWX 191655
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1155 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The upper level flow this morning is zonal to slightly ridging and
this will continue through the short term period. The low level
flow is from the southeast. This is bringing warmer, moister air to
our CWA. Temperatures and dewpoints are five to ten degrees higher
than 24 hours ago. Patchy fog is spreading in from the coast, but it
doesn`t look like it will make much more progress inland. Morning
clouds over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor will give way to
mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures. Highs will be similar
to yesterday mostly in the 90s and approaching 105 along the Rio
Grande. We don`t see any significant change in the pattern for
tonight and Monday. The forecast is a bit of rinse and repeat.
Clouds will develop overnight over the Coastal Plains and I-35
Corridor and then give way to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon.
Both low and high temperatures will be about the same as the
previous day`s. Feels like the start of summer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The upper level ridge axis slides east Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Despite this, 500/700mb heights and temperatures remain anomalously
high Tuesday afternoon, and high temperatures Tuesday will remain
well above normal. By Wednesday the upper level ridge axis will
stretch from the southeast U.S. into the southwest Gulf of Mexico,
while a shortwave trough slides through southern California and
Arizona and eventually dampens east across Texas Thursday. This will
open the door for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms in
the afternoons and evenings Wednesday through Friday along the Rio
Grande and across the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and
central Texas. Rain chances in this region are currently only in the
10-30% range. Otherwise, continued above normal temperatures with
periods of hazy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

MVFR status continues to mix out across the TAF sites at the present
time and will begin the 18z TAFs with VFR being mentioned. Some
breezy winds can be expected at times during the afternoon periods
but speeds should generally be less than 20 knots. Another round of
MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings can be expected late tonight into
tomorrow morning once again as low-level flow continues to induce
nocturnal stratus. VFR should return by 17z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  72  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  71  91  74 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  72  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            90  70  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          105  77 105  80 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  71  90  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  72  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  71  93  74 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  72  90  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  74  94  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  74  96  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...76
Aviation...29