Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 230540
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1240 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR skies will prevail tonight through Saturday night. Except, a
period of stratus with areas of MVFR CIGs late night into early
morning hours. Best chances of MVFR CIGs is at KSAT/KSSF and will
maintain mention 10Z-14Z. S to SE winds 4 to 14 KTS will prevail
with highest speeds afternoon into evening along with gusts to 24
KTS possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Similar to yesterday afternoon, isolated showers are currently
developing near the middle Texas coast. This activity is expected
to weaken while moving inland, so we`ll keep the forecast dry for
south central Texas through the remainder of today. Otherwise,
another day of above normal temperatures is taking shape with
plenty of mid-afternoon readings already in the lower 90s to near
100 degrees. We do expect a few afternoon heat index values near
105 degrees today, especially along and east of the I-35
corridor. A slight uptick in low-level moisture will lead to
afternoon convection near the coastal plains on Saturday. We will
carry a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms for areas
generally east of a Pleasanton to Giddings line to account for
any isolated convection. The slightly higher moisture content will
also lead to an increase in afternoon heat index values along the
coastal plains, with a few locations peaking between 105-108
degrees.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The persistent area of mid and upper level high pressure over the
Great Plains will begin to re-center itself over the western U.S.
by the middle of the upcoming work week. This pattern will allow
an upper trough currently off the southeast U.S. coast to
retrograde into the Gulf of Mexico and eventually south Texas
toward the early and middle of this week. There are some timing
difference noted between the operational GFS and ECMWF, with the
GFS being slightly faster and a little stronger with this feature.
Given this pattern, we expect a slight increase in rain chances
across south central Texas through the early and middle portion of
next week. Rain chances on Sunday will initially be confined to
the coastal plains, but will spread westward into the I-35
corridor on Monday. As deep layer moisture increases and the
influence of the upper ridge weakens, we will push rain chances
westward to the Rio Grande on Tuesday. The medium range models
continue to show the remnants of the upper trough or perhaps a col
developing across the region late next week. This will likely keep
any rain chances limited to the coastal plains where the afternoon
sea breeze could aid in developing isolated convection.
Temperatures should also ease back closer to climatological
normals for the latter half of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78 100  78  98  77 /   0  10   0  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  99  75  98  76 /   0  10  -   20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76 100  76  98  75 /   0  10  -   20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            76  98  76  96  75 /   0  -    0  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 102  79 101  79 /   0  -    0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        78  98  77  96  76 /   0  -   10  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             76 100  75  99  76 /  -    0   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        77  99  76  97  76 /   0  10  -   20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  99  77  96  76 /   0  20  -   30  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  98  77  97  77 /   0  -   -   20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           78 101  78 100  78 /   0  -   -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...LH



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