Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KEWX 251722
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.  COULD SEE A FEW
MID LEVEL CU DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LIGHT
GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS BELOW 10KT. SW/S WINDS WILL BACK TO SE
BY LATE AFTERNOON...VARIABLE TO SW OVERNIGHT...AND A REPEAT
TOMORROW WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A BACKING WIND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE A BIT MORE WIND TOMORROW...BUT STILL 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR SKC WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
FEW050 ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PATCHY BR WITH MVFR VSBYS
IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS AND MAINLY SLY IN DIRECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE INTACT. TODAY/S FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EXISTING RECORDS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. PLEASE SEE THE BELOW CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DATA.
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT TRENDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND
INCREASES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT IS RATHER WEAK... BUT SHOULD AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%) AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK ACROSS OUR REGION. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
AMPLIFY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SEND A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS COLD FRONT
WHILE THE GFS POPS ARE LOWER. FOR NOW... WE/LL NOT MENTION ANY
RAIN CHANCES JUST YET AND HOPE FOR A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE/YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR OCTOBER 25:
SAN ANTONIO INTL 91/2010
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 92/1950
AUSTIN MABRY 91/1992
DEL RIO INTL 99/2010

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  63  88  63  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  57  87  57  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  61  88  60  89 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  61  86  60  83 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  61  86  60  85 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  55  88  56  87 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  59  88  59  88 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   88  61  86  62  85 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  63  87  63  87 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  61  88  62  88 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.