Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 100023
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
623 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/
VFR skies should persist through around 12z Saturday with MVFR
cigs gradually advancing northward during the late morning. Patchy
afternoon light drizzle is suggested by NAM/GFS/ECM to form, but
all three models are trending drier and suggesting more
precipitation emphasis at night. With surface winds showing a more
southerly fetch by this time, feel light showers/sprinkles may be
more likely with less of an early evening impact on cigs and
vsbys. IFR evening conditions are suggested based on time
sections, with additional lowerings expected just outside the TAF
time windows.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Thin cloud layer will continue to cover most of the area with some
clearing over few spots this evening. However, moisture returns
late tonight into Saturday morning as southerly winds make a come
back. Expect a cold night once again with a light freeze over the
Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Along Interstate 35, low
temperatures are expected to drop to the 33 to 36 degrees range.
Low level moisture will be increasing as the day progresses on
Saturday for partly to mostly cloudy skies over most locations. By
Saturday evening into Sunday morning, the combination of a passing
short-wave disturbance and a 35 to 45 knots LLJ pushing across the
eastern half of South-Central Texas will be enough for light
rain/drizzle mainly along and east of Interstate 35.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Light rain continues on Sunday across the eastern half of South-
Central Texas ahead of the next cold front. The frontal boundary
is forecast to move across the area Monday morning. It will be a
dry cold front for the most parts with slight chances for rain
across the coastal plains. A warming trend is in store for Monday
and Tuesday of next week before another cold front pushes across
the area by the middle or latter part of the work week. The
medium-range models are not in good agreement with this particular
frontal passage. The GFS solution is a much faster one versus the
ECM and brings a much colder airmass across the area. This
forecast package shows a combination of superblend and ECM
solutions with warmer temperatures and dry weather conditions for
the extended forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              34  52  50  70  55 /   0  -   20  10  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  33  52  51  69  55 /   0  -   20  20  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     35  51  50  68  55 /   0  10  20  10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            31  50  48  69  49 /   0  -   20  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           33  54  43  65  46 /   0   0  -    0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        32  51  50  69  51 /   0  10  20  10  -
Hondo Muni Airport             33  51  47  67  49 /   0  -   10  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        34  51  50  68  55 /   0  -   20  10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   35  54  51  72  61 /   0  10  30  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       36  51  50  67  53 /   0  10  20  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           36  51  50  68  53 /   0  10  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...Allen
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway



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