Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 050552
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1252 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TAFS FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS
WILL LOWER FIRST AT AUS THEN SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS THEN DRT.
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO IFR. IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR BY AROUND NOON. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND
15KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
SEEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF I35 AS
EXPECTED TODAY. ALL CONVECTIVE AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS FAVOR THIS
AREA UNTIL 00Z. HI RES MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER LOSS OF CONVECTION
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN STORE.

FOR SUNDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST COMPARED TO TODAY IN
THE LOW LEVELS. 20-30 KT 850 MB FLOW DUE TO A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE WITH THE BEST
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN CWA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST AND RESULT IN VARIABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. THE RIDGING EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ON THE GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW A HEALTHY CAP AT 750 MB AT 18Z. EROSION
OF THE CAP IS ADVERTISED IN THE NAM...WHICH HAS BEEN OVERDOING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND THE GFS HOLDS IT STRONG. THINKING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT THINK THIS
WILL BE PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT PARCELS...BUT STILL NOT
TOO HIGH ON THIS POTENTIAL EITHER. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE SW CONUS WILL UNDERGO SOME SHORTWAVE
DEFORMATIONS AND INFLUENCES MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORTWAVES IS BEEFIER IN THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY POTENTIAL MCS
GENERATION OR LINEAR SYSTEM TO PROGRESS FARTHER SOUTH...SHOULD ONE
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NO SYNOPTIC MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...ESPECIALLY
IF MESOSCALE FEATURES NOT CAPTURED BY THE SYNOPTIC MODELS IS ALSO
AT PLAY. AS CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW...NO ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE
POP CHANCES...BUT THOUGHT THIS MAY AT LEAST BE WORTH MENTIONING.

OTHERWISE A MUCH DRIER PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEK. THE LONG
RANGE GFS ADVERTISES CENTRAL TEXAS BEING DIRECTLY UNDER THE CENTER
OF THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE. SO IT WOULD APPEAR THAT VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE THE ONLY PRECIP OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  76  92  75  92 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  76  92  76  91 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  75  91  75  91 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  75  91  74  90 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  76  95  77  94 /  -    0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  76  91  75  91 /  10  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  75  92  75  92 /  10   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  76  92  75  91 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  77  91  77  91 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  76  92  75  91 /  10   0  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  76  92  76  91 /  10   0  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04



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