Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KEWX 010440 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. KDRT WILL
REMAIN EASTERLY. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY THEN
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AT 7-10 KNOTS. KDRT WILL SEE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AFTER 17Z NEAR 15 KNOTS. AT THE 30 HOUR TAF SITES
WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AFTER 02/08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 01Z. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BECOME EAST THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10 KNOTS. WINDS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 15 KNOTS AFTER 17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A COOLING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING.
SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY COULD SEE THE UPPER 30S FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. ON
SATURDAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE DRY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL VALUES.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH TO THE
EAST ALLOWING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT FROM TIME TO TIME ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS UPPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM VANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PULL TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
TUESDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE EURO BY 6 HOURS OR
SO. THE BIG DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS THE PLACEMENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/ENERGY. LATEST GFS SOLUTION HAS A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL WAVE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME
FRAME AND THEN CREATES A CUT OFF LOW ON WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE EURO SOLUTION HAS A CUT OFF LOW FORMING
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK IS MODERATE TO
HIGH...HOWEVER THE TIMING AND INTENSITY/ACCUMULATION ARE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AS MODELS COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT IN FUTURE
RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  66  46  73  60 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  41  66  39  74  54 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  70  45  76  59 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  66  45  70  58 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  71  55  74  63 /  -    0   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        42  65  43  72  57 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  70  45  74  57 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        43  68  43  75  57 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   44  67  43  75  58 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  70  50  76  63 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  71  50  76  61 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.