Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 252029
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVED EAST OF I-35. MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 30S AT ROCKSPRINGS...COMPARED WITH MID 60S AT LA GRANGE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE ACROSS DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION...WE HAVE
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD AND
SHARPEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BANDERA TO
BASTROP LINE AND WE HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE DRYLINE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE AS AN ADVANCING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO KARNES CITY
LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FINALLY ADVANCES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER GIVEN A CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  87  67  84  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  85  66  83  59 /  -   30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  67  84  61 /  -   30  30  40  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  62  83  57 /  -   40  40  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  62  88  61 /  -   -   20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  85  65  83  58 /  -   30  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  88  65  86  60 /  -   20  30  30  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  85  67  83  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  86  70  82  63 /  -   30  30  60  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  88  68  86  62 /  -   30  30  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  87  69  85  62 /  -   30  30  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30


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