Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 311957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
257 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY MOVING EAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN TEXAS OR OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO
OF MEXICO DUE TO WEAKENING OF CAP AND UPWARD MOTION THERE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE MAY MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG RIO GRANDE
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST
A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS OVER THE VAL VERDE COUNTY AREA AND
CONCUR WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING THAT AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK. CAP
WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH SOME INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WEAKER AND NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES ARE ON FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON MAKING A POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS. WEAK IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING A WEAK OVERRUNNING PATTERN TO DEVELOP WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT CREATING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY TURN WELL BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND DUE TO COLD ADVECTION
ALONG WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS...AND THEN WARM BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE
NEXT WEEK DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASED CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  79  66  85  66 /  10  40  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  80  65  84  66 /  10  50  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  80  65  85  65 /  10  50  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  79  64  84  65 /  10  30  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  84  64  92  68 /  30  20  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  78  65  83  67 /  10  40  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  80  64  87  65 /  20  50  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  80  65  84  66 /  10  50  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  80  66  84  68 /  10  50  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  79  66  86  66 /  10  50  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  80  66  86  66 /  10  50  10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04



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