Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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296
FXUS64 KEWX 122039
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
239 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A SLOW MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY RESTING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM A ROCKSPRINGS TO AUSTIN TO BRYAN/COLLEGE
STATION LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA
IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERRUNS IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE MORE FOG ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 DOWN TO ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS WE SAW SEVERAL SPOTS THIS MORNING GET DOWN BELOW
1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REPEAT THIS TONIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...LATER SHIFTS CAN
EVALUATE THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG AND ISSUE THE PRODUCT AS
WARRANTED.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST SURFACE LAYER TRAPPED
UNDER THE ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MORNING
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND LONGER SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHILE THE REST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING THE ONLY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATE AND NORTHERN MEXICO BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST. A TAIL END SHOWER COULD CLIP
LEE...FAYETTE...BASTROP...OR LAVACA COUNTIES SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY THE BEST CAPE WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IN OUR
AREA SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS.

THE FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT AND THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  67  53  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  67  51  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  71  52  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  66  51  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  77  52  78  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  65  51  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  74  51  77  48 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  67  52  75  58 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  71  53  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  73  53  77  52 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH



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