Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 022319
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
WDLY SCT SHRA EAST OF A KAQO TO KUVA TO KCOT LINE AND BACK EDGE OF
BKN-OVC040-070 LAYER ALONG A KJCT TO KDRT TO 100 SW OF KDRT LINE
ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 KTS. THE SHRA AND VFR CLOUD DECK ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 08Z. KDRT WILL BE
SKC AT TAF START TIME WHILE THE I-35 TAF SITES (KAUS/KSAT/KSSF) GO
MAINLY SKC 05Z-07Z. WILL MENTION VCSH AT THE I-35 TAF SITES THRU
02Z. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. NLY WINDS DECREASE TO 3 TO
7 KT...THEN TURN NELY 5 TO 11 KTS ON TUESDAY MOST AREAS WHILE
TURNING SELY 5 TO 12 KTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD
WITH JUST A FEW CELLS REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WATER
VAPOR IS SHOWING DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND THIS
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE THREAT FOR ACTIVITY BY 00Z. WE HAD ONE
STRONG CELL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH MUCAPE VALUES
DIMINISHING PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL STRONGER CELLS IS PRETTY LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AN OMEGA BLOCK IS FORECASTED TO SET UP WITH
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER ON BOTH SIDES OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
IS A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WAS IN PLACE A COUPLE OF WEEKS
AGO...BUT THIS TIME WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND NOT ONE OF THE LOWS. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK REMAINS DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THURSDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
WARM UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN WHICH SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOW IT TO MOVE
EAST A BIT. THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SHOULD BE IN A FAVORABLE REGION
FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME POSSIBLE STORMS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE DRY LINE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY...MODELS ARE
PROGGING THE UPPER LOW TO BE FARTHER TO THE EAST AND MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD HAVE CHANCES FOR STORMS. SOME STRONG STORMS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS PERIOD AS WELL...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS AS THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW ARE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN FORECASTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              53  76  54  83  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  51  75  49  82  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  77  52  83  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  74  52  81  56 /  -    0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           54  81  57  86  59 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  74  52  82  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  79  48  84  51 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  76  51  82  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  75  52  81  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  78  53  83  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  79  53  84  58 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



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