Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 222355
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
555 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.AVIATION.../00Z_TAFS/
IFR ceilings are currently in place at the I-35 TAF sites with VFR
conditions at DRT that should quickly decrease to MVFR in the next
few hours. Northerly 5-10 knot winds continue at AUS, but winds are
beginning to veer to the E-NE at SAT/SSF and are generally calm at
DRT. Ceilings and visibilities should decrease to LIFR at the I-35
sites around 4Z as the front to our south begins to lift north as a
warm front. Although advection fog is usually not dense, SAT may have
a brief period of dense fog after 8Z due to a combination of weak
winds and its proximity to the Gulf and the Escarpment. However,
widespread showers and possibly a few thunderstorms due to elevated
instability should move into the I-35 TAF sites between 11-13Z before
ending by early afternoon as the warm front lifts north and a
shortwave disturbance moves through. Visibilities should increase
slightly with the rainfall, but LIFR ceilings will not lift to MVFR
until some point tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed a deep trough over the western
half of the country with southwesterly flow over Texas. At the
surface, a front was stalled along the Texas coast into northern
Mexico and then back up toward the Big Bend. On the cool side of the
front winds were from the north. Another upper level shortwave trough
will move across the area tonight keeping chances for rain high
tonight and tomorrow. Some showers will linger across the region as
this feature moves away Friday night.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Saturday a Pacific front will move across Texas providing support for
another round of showers. There will be better chances over the
eastern half of the CWA where there will be deeper moisture. Monday
will be dry as the front moves away to the east. The upper level flow
will continue to be from the southwest and a series of shortwave
troughs will move across the region providing enough lift to produce
slight to low end chance POPs each day through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              41  67  60  75  47 /  70  60  40  60  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  41  68  61  75  46 /  70  60  40  60  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     44  71  62  76  48 /  70  60  40  50  20
Burnet Muni Airport            36  63  57  72  43 /  60  70  40  70  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           52  69  57  75  47 /  20  30  30  -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        38  65  59  72  43 /  70  70  40  70  10
Hondo Muni Airport             51  69  62  78  46 /  70  60  40  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        41  70  62  76  47 /  70  60  40  50  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   44  75  64  78  50 /  50  30  30  60  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       45  71  63  76  49 /  70  60  40  40  20
Stinson Muni Airport           47  72  63  75  50 /  70  60  40  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...LH
Synoptic/Grids...Allen
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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