Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
FXUS64 KEWX 210423
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1023 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017
VFR conditions continue to prevail at the area airports this
evening and will continue to do so until after midnight. A second
area of showers and storms developed once again well east of the
airports and this also will continue to move east and not pose a
threat for aviation concerns for our area. Conditions are favorable
for another round of fog for the I-35 area airports by tomorrow
morning. The main question will be whether or not we see the sub
quarter of a mile visibility again or not. Will continue with the 1/2
mile mention of fog in the TAFs for several hours which is a bit
less of a time span than the previous TAFs. This is based on latest
short-term model guidance. VFR conditions are expected to return by
the late morning hours and gusty westerly winds are expected to begin
to affect the region by late tomorrow afternoon and evening.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/
Updated this evening and overnight forecast to remove mention of
thunder as complex of storms continues to pull away from the region
through Southeast Texas. Can`t rule out some patchy light rain or
isolated showers across the southeast overnight. Also, based on
latest guidance increased coverage of fog overnight and into Saturday
morning and added in a mention of dense fog along and east of I-35.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough from the Four Corners
region to northwestern Mexico with southwesterly flow over Texas. At
the surface, the pressure gradient was ill defined and winds were
generally light and variable across our CWA. An upper level low will
close off over the panhandle Saturday and into Oklahoma Saturday
night. We don`t expect much change for tonight with good radiational
cooling leading to fog developing over our southeastern area. Dense
fog is likely again Saturday morning. Then eventual clearing and
another warm day Saturday. A Pacific cold front will move through the
region Saturday night. There is not much moisture for this system to
work with and there will only be a slight chance for rain in northern
areas. The big change with this front will strong winds behind it.
Winds will increase Saturday night.
LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Winds will continue to increase during the day Sunday. A wind
advisory will likely be needed Sunday. An upper level ridge will
build into the middle of the country from the west beginning Sunday
night. The pressure gradient at the surface will relax as the high
moves away to the east. Winds will decrease and switch around to the
south. Tuesday night another cold front will move through, but will
be dry like the previous one. This will bring cooler air for the rest
of the period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 54 76 51 69 44 / 0 20 20 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 52 76 51 69 43 / - 20 20 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 53 76 50 70 43 / - 10 - 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 50 73 47 64 41 / 0 20 20 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 48 78 50 70 42 / 0 - - 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 51 73 49 66 41 / 0 20 20 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 51 78 49 72 41 / 0 - - 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 53 76 50 69 43 / - 10 10 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 57 74 52 68 44 / 10 10 20 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 55 77 52 70 44 / - 10 - 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 53 78 51 71 45 / 10 - - 0 0
Public Service/Data Collection...33