342
FXUS61 KALY 311706
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
106 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies for this afternoon,
with breezy northwest winds at times. Clear and cool conditions
for tonight, with fair and warmer conditions expected Saturday.
An approaching upper level disturbance will bring some clouds
for Sunday, with a few showers possible in the afternoon,
especially south of Interstate 90.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 1 PM EDT, partly to mostly sunny skies across
the region, with a mix of some patchy high clouds, and fair
weather cumulus. West to northwest winds have become a bit
gusty, especially within portions of the Mohawk Valley, Capital
Region and Berkshires, where some gusts up to 25 mph have been
observed and are likely to continue through sunset.

Temperatures have reached the lower/mid 70s in many valley
areas, and will likely max out in the mid/upper 70s, with mainly
65-70 across higher elevations.

Other than some minor adjustments according to latest obs,
remainder of forecast on track.

.PREV DISCUSSION [0345 AM EDT]...Upper ridging and surface
high pressure approaching from the west will bring continued
fair weather through tonight. With light winds beneath clearing
skies, much of the region is in for a cool morning, with areas
above 1500 ft elevation starting the day in the upper 30s, while
lower elevation locales begin in the low to mid 40s. Steep low-
level lapse rates up to 800-850 hPa developing by this afternoon
will allow for some stronger west to northwest winds to mix
down to the surface, potentially gusting as high as 20-25 mph
along the Mohawk Valley, across the Capital District, and in the
higher terrain of the eastern Catskills and Berkshires. Some
higher clouds may pass over the region through the afternoon,
with otherwise mostly sunny skies and temperatures moderating to
near normal values, reaching afternoon highs in the 60s in
higher terrain and low to mid 70s at lower elevations. Another
night of largely clear skies and light winds will again see
efficient radiative cooling, resulting in overnight lows in the
40s for most of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Pleasant weather continued into the weekend as upper ridging
approaches from the west on Saturday and passes overhead on
Saturday night. Temperatures reach a few degrees above normal
beneath mostly sunny skies through the afternoon, reaching highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s in high terrain and upper 70s to mid
80s at lower elevations. Mid to high clouds begun to increase
from the west into Saturday evening and night, as temperatures
fall to overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

On Sunday, the upper ridge will begin to stretch out as it
becomes squeezed between upper troughing over Hudson Bay to the
west and a deep upper low off the Canadian Maritimes to the
east. An upper shortwave riding up the western flank of the
ridge will weaken somewhat and begin to slow as it approaches,
with scattered rain showers ahead of a surface frontal boundary
reaching into the region Sunday afternoon and evening. Enhanced
cloud cover and spotty showers may knock a few degrees off of
temperatures compared to Saturday, with afternoon highs in the
mid 60s to upper 70s expected. Higher surface dewpoints
additionally limit overnight cooling, with lows Sunday night in
the 50s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level shortwave looks to depart the region to the east on
Monday as upper-level ridging attempts to return into midweek. High
pressure will dive southward from Canada and set up along or just
off the New England coast. This high should provide enough
subsidence for mainly dry weather, but some pop up showers and
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either day, but looks more on the
isolated side. NBM PoPs continue to look a bit too aggressive for
Tuesday and Wednesday, especially compared to the latest
deterministic models which show a drier trend, so trimmed them back
slightly, but maintained some slight chance to low chance for now.
The better, more widespread, rain chances look to be toward the end
of the week as an upper-level trough/low tracks eastward from the
central CONUS, sending a cold front toward our area. Overall
forecaster confidence on the long term period remains low to
moderate as run-to-run model consistency during this period remains
poor.

Highs will be mainly in the 70s/80s each day with lows in the 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z/Sat...VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming
TAF period at all sites with just some mid and high clouds at times
as high pressure builds in to our west. The air mass will be dry
enough to prevent any fog formation.

Wind will become northwesterly at 10-15 kt with gusts to around 20
kt today. Wind will decrease to less than 10 kt early this evening,
then calm overnight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today, minimum RH values drop to 30 to 40% in the afternoon
while gusty west-northwest winds may reach 20 mph. Fire weather
concerns nonetheless remain low as substantial rainfall has been
observed across the region within the past 5-7 days.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Picard
NEAR TERM...KL/Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...Picard