Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
097 FXUS64 KCRP 101805 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 105 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Key Messages: Cold front to move across the region today Low chance for showers and storms through Saturday A cold front is sagging southward and is approaching our CWA this morning. It is expected to slowly drift south towards the coast this afternoon/evening where it is likely to stall over our southern CWA. Expecting a wind shift to the northeast ahead of the actual front with weak to moderate winds. Cooler and drier conditions expected behind the front with afternoon highs today climbing into the mid 80s to 90s. PWAT`s from the latest sounding are reflecting values just below normal and have silent PoP`s in the forecast today. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s accompanied by a low (20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains. A few mid-level disturbances from a low anchored over the Four Corners, will increase storm chances for Saturday with a low 15-25% chance across most of the region. Saturday has the coolest highs of the week ranging in the 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Key Messages: Low to moderate chance for showers and storms through Monday Warming trend kicks in on Sunday. Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts daily. The long term opens up with a warm front lifting north across the region. PWATs will trend up south of the boundary as a ~20 knots LLJ ushers deep moisture inland. Meanwhile, an upper low across the Desert Southwest will begin to lift across the Southern Plains while sending another weak front our way. Several shortwaves look to eject out ahead of the low Sunday through Monday. This will help drive convection as we head into the work week. We currently have a low to moderate (20-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Our greatest chances will be confined to the Victoria Crossroads as the greatest forcing will pass north of the region. We begin to dry out Monday evening as weak ridging builds in from the west. Low end PoPs return by mid week as another disturbance nears the region. By the time Sunday gets here, our warming trend will be well underway. High temperatures will rebound into the upper 80s along the coast to near 100 across the Brush Country. Heat indices bounce back into the 100-109 range through the week leading to a moderate heat risk for much of South Texas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The slow moving cold front that has been fizzling, still has enough energy to help produce clouds over most of south Texas. While the drier air is expected to filter into the region, the moisture will continue for another night, except VCT which looks like it has gotten into the drier air, and should remain VFR through the next 24 hours. All of the other TAF sites will remain VFR to MVFR and back, with ALI and CRP running a risk (15-25%) of IFR CIGs as the moisture remains. Otherwise there is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms at ALI and CRP with the proximity of the moisture and the weakening boundary. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Overall a weak to moderate northeasterly flow is expected today in response to a frontal boundary. Flow is expected to persist through Saturday before veering more easterly. Patchy fog and haze will continue to impact the waters ahead of the boundary. There is a 15-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night A weak to moderate southeasterly flow will resume Saturday night and continue through the work week. There is a 20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Drier conditions are in store by Tuesday. Low end rain chances return by mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 85 75 89 / 30 10 20 30 Victoria 70 86 72 86 / 10 10 20 50 Laredo 75 90 76 96 / 20 20 30 10 Alice 73 86 74 92 / 30 20 20 30 Rockport 75 85 76 85 / 10 10 10 30 Cotulla 75 87 75 93 / 20 20 30 20 Kingsville 74 85 75 90 / 30 20 20 30 Navy Corpus 78 85 77 87 / 30 20 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....TC AVIATION...JSL/86