839
FXUS64 KCRP 121748
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1248 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms on Monday
- Moderate chance of minor coastal flooding today

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a shortwave departing to
our east as an upper level low churns across the Desert Southwest.
At the surface, MSAS analysis depicts a warm front draped from near
Laredo to Port O`Connor. Moisture will continue to increase across
the region as this boundary slowly lifts north through the day.
While confidence is low in our rain chances, we continue with a 20-
40% chance, generally across the Victoria Crossroads. The RAP pulls
a H7 vort max through South-Central Texas today so it`s possible
that it provides enough lift for us to squeeze out some activity.
Any convection we do see will move off to our northeast late this
afternoon.

By Monday, the upper level low will begin eject across the Southern
Plains while sending a cold front across the state. The boundary
looks to slow down or stall just north of us on Monday as a
dryline nudges into the Brush Country. Increasing instability
through the day will help promote a risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show CAPE nearing or just over
4000 J/kg, 7-8C/km lapse rates, and bulk shear around 50 knots.
However, a stout cap is in place. If we are able to overcome the
cap, we have a decent shot to see strong to severe thunderstorms
develop during the mid afternoon hours with activity waning during
the evening. SPC currently has much of our area east of TX HWY-16
included in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Monday.
Main threats look to be damaging winds and large hail.

Unfortunately, we kick off a warming trend today with temps
climbing into the upper 80s to upper 90s across the Coastal Plains
and Brush Country. We add on a few degrees on Monday with highs
reaching the triple digits across the Brush Country.

Lastly, we will need to monitor our tide levels today as we could
see some minor coastal flooding along our Gulf-facing beaches. We
didn`t quite make it to criteria yesterday so I am little hesitant
to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory at this time. Tide levels are
currently running about 1.3` above normal with swells around 7s.
However, our next high tide will be slightly lower than what we
say yesterday and Gerling-Hanson plots suggest our swells will
come down. All that to say that is a very borderline situation.
For now, will monitor the trends for the next few hours. If I
decided to hold off on the midshift, we will have the day crew
keep an eye on our water levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday
- Dangerous heat is possible on Thursday

Some lingering showers/thunderstorms remain possible Monday night
with a small ~15% chance with a dryline near or over our western CWA
and a frontal boundary just to our north. Regardless of whether or
not the boundary stalls over/near our CWA or pushes through to the
coast, expecting Tuesday to be dry due to a lack moisture aloft and
PWAT`s dropping below normal to around 1.15" (GEFS Mean). Onshore
flow will keep dewpoints in the 70s along the Coastal Bend and
steadily drops off the further west you go. The synoptic pattern
during this time features a mid-level high over the SE Gulf, a mid-
level low over the Central Plains and another low forming over the
Pacific west of SoCal. PWAT`s will start to rebound Tuesday as low-
level onshore flow increases.

Wednesday through the end of the week several mid-level disturbances
will keep rain chances in the forecast but overall the lack of deep
layer moisture will be the limiting factor. In addition to the
aforementioned frontal boundary in the vicinity of our region,
there will be a 700mb vort max Wednesday morning followed by
several shortwaves through Friday. Currently have a low 15-30%
chance for convective activity Wednesday/Wednesday night, a low to
moderate 20- 45% chance Thursday. Towards the end of the period,
confidence remains low with another potential frontal boundary
moving across the CWA this weekend as a couple of weak mid-level
lows traverse across the Southern Plains. It`s doubtful these will
provide enough momentum to push the front through South Texas, so
for now will keep silent PoP`s in agreement with the NBM and
monitor guidance/trends over the coming days.

Afternoon highs through the week will range in the 90s except for
the barrier islands where mid 80s are expected and triple digits out
west along the Rio Grande Plains. Thursday the moisture advection
will push dewpoints to near 80 degrees and surface temperatures in
the mid 90s will increase the risk for heat related illness. There`s
currently around a 45% chance for Max Heat Indices to reach 105
degrees and a 30% chance for 110 across the southern Coastal Bend.
Will continue to monitor this trend and provide updates as
necessary. Overnight lows this week will range in the upper 60s to
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Most sites have broken out to VFR conditions early this afternoon,
however VCT is bouncing in and out a bit. Should steady out at VFR
soon though. Will keep the VCTS mention for VCT, though so far has
been just shower activity in the area. MVFR CIGS return tonight
for all terminals. During the day Monday there is a low chance for
thunderstorms, but will be conditional on a cap eroding, so
confidence is not great enough to include in TAFs at this time.
The best potential will be in the VCT area in the afternoon to
evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  78  92  75 /  20  20  40  10
Victoria          86  76  89  70 /  40  20  50  20
Laredo            99  77 101  75 /   0  20  10   0
Alice             93  77  95  73 /  10  20  40  10
Rockport          85  78  86  75 /  30  10  40  10
Cotulla           97  78  97  74 /   0  20  20   0
Kingsville        92  77  94  75 /  10  20  40  10
Navy Corpus       86  79  87  78 /  20  20  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345-
     442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...PH/83