Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 300849
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AT 330 AM...IT WAS VERY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SKIES RANGED
FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE ARROWHEAD AND FAR EASTERN AREAS OF NW
WI...TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE FOG WAS GENERALLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES. WE
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NW WISCONSIN ESPECIALLY...BUT
OVERALL IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...BUT OVERALL THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
TONIGHT. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN
COOL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 40S.
THE 06Z NAM IS TRYING TO INDICATE SOME QPF IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE CWA
BOUNDARIES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRAY SHOWER
EITHER ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION...BUT DO NOT FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH COOL NW FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT MAY DROP OUT OF CANADA...BUT HELD
OFF ON ADDING IT INTO THE FORECAST SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THURSDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SUNNY AND DRY...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDER OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MORE HUMID. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO
THE DAYTIME HEATING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A PROMINENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OFF ON TIMING...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY.
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING IN THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THERE MAY BE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CLOUD CEILINGS EARLY
THIS MORNING AT NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN TERMINALS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
KHYR AND KDLH AREAS ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED...WHILE NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY REDUCTIONS AT THE KINL/KHIB/KBRD AREAS TO
FORECAST ANYTHING OTHER THAN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT. THE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL LIFT LATER THIS MORNING...BUT IT COULD LINGER AT
KDLH AND KHYR UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. ONCE THE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN LATE THIS MORNING...THE VFR IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  49  73  51 /  10   0  10   0
INL  73  47  78  53 /   0  10  10  10
BRD  77  52  75  55 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  70  43  74  47 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  63  44  71  47 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI


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