Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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398 FXUS63 KEAX 111720 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1220 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather is expected Saturday with partly cloudy skies and highs in the 70. -Showers and thunderstorms become possible Sunday and Monday. Additional minor flooding possible. -Additional showers and thunderstorms expected for the second half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Similar to last night, very light showers have skirted our northwestern corner thanks to as shortwave trough and trailing front sliding across the Great Lakes region. Most, if not all, of our are should remain dry. Heading into the daylight hour, quiet weather persists with light northwest to westerly winds today and mostly sunny skies. Highs this afternoon will reach near 80 degrees for western parts of the forecast area including the Kansas City Metro. Elsewhere can expect mid to upper 70s. As we head into Saturday night into Sunday morning another system churning off the Rockies pushes east toward our forecast area. Ahead of its arrival warm air advection will allow for continued warmer temperatures and increasing rain chances starting Sunday morning. As far as temperatures go, despite the cloudy and rainy conditions, most should still see highs reach near 80 in the afternoon. The system develops a closed low as it very sluggishly slides east. Continued shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected continuing into the overnight. The good news is that CAPE and shear profiles look less than enthusiastic, so severe weather is not expected at this time. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues during the day Monday with the system nearly centered over the area around this time. The wave gradually makes its way east by Monday night with rainfall chances finally coming to an end. When its all said an done, rainfall amounts as high as 1.00-2.00 inches can be expected across the forecast area. This may lead to some additional minor river flooding. Dry weather is expected to return for the middle part of next week with very short lived ridging setting in. Temperatures remain mild with highs in the mid 70s through this time. The second half of the week looks to become more active again as another wave slides into the forecast area Thursday and Friday bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conds are expected thru the pd with just few-sct high clouds. Winds will be out of the west at 5-10kts thru 00Z-01Z when they will back to the south and remain btn 5-10kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HB AVIATION...73