Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 242029
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
229 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Windy conditions are expected through Saturday with the strongest
winds on Thursday and Saturday. It will still be breezy on
Sunday, but more tranquil but warm conditions are expected for
next week. Eastern areas have a slight chance for a shower or
thunderstorm starting Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
It is a quiet afternoon. Southern NM and Far West TX is sitting
beneath the back-side of a ridge with plenty of high clouds
feeding in from the southwest. This will keep us warm and tranquil
through tonight, but that changes quickly for tomorrow. A s/w
trough off the Southern CA coast will swing eastward overnight
tonight causing an H500 jet to eject over our CWA toward morning,
continuing northeast into the afternoon, beginning to exit by
evening. Meanwhile at the surface, a >990 mb low will deepen over
eastern CO with strengthening Pacific front to help pack the
gradients even further. If you`ve read these AFDs before, you know
that means a windy day is upon us. Looking at NBM probability and
forecast soundings, top gusts look to range 45 to 60 MPH, with
the strongest winds along the east slopes of the San Andres-Organs
and higher elevations of the Sacs. Thus, the current wind
headlines look good. The only zone I am a bit unsure about is East
El Paso, where NBM places 50 knots right at the 50th percentile
with 53 knots at 75%. Last event, top gusts fell short of the 75th
percentile, making me less confident in the probabilities I`m
seeing. Ultimately, what broke the tie for me to keep it an
advisory was looking at the GFS forecast sounding, which usually
is really good at predicting top gusts for east slope locations.
It shows a top gust at 46 knots. Nevertheless, any uptick in
guidance would probably warrant an upgrade to a warning. I will
let future shifts take a look at that.
On Friday we will see a minor lull in wind as this first system
kicks out and Saturday`s approaches. We will still be at the base
of the long-wave trough though keeping moderate flow aloft and a
>1000 mb low over the OK Panhandle. Winds will remain breezy to
low-end windy for Friday. Then, on Saturday, the second impulse
arrives further deepening the surface low with a 990 mb low over
SW KS and a 85+ knot H500 jet. NBM probabilities for Saturday are
just a touch under Thursdays, but operational GFS is a touch
stronger. Thus, more wind products will likely be needed. With
current headlines in place, I will forego issuing any now, but
east slopes of the Tularosa basin and portions of the Sacs could
already support a high wind watch otherwise. This system will also
bring low-end precip chances to our mountains, especially the
Gila.
Saturday`s system departs setting the stage for quieter
conditions. We`ll still be on the backside of the trough Sunday
keeping us breezy, but by Monday ridging will build first over us
before shifting more to our east. Southwest flow aloft will set-up
allowing us to warm well above normal. The dryline game begins on
Tuesday with a chance for showers and storms east of the dryline.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
VFR conditions expected with SCT-BKN200/250. Winds will pick up to
10 to 15 knots this afternoon with a few gusts to 25 knots,
generally from 230-260. Thursday is expected to be a windy day
with wind beginning to increase toward the end of the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
THURSDAY...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL...An active fire
weather pattern is upon us. Winds will increase tomorrow while min
RH values fall into the single-digits. RFTI values of 5-7 are
expected. The Gila is included within the Red Flag, but given
wetter fuels and RFTI of 5, conditions are more marginal there.
Winds look to top out 25 to 35 MPH area wide. Vent rates will be
excellent.
FRIDAY...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL...For Friday, winds
decrease but with min RH values falling into the lower teens.
Winds will range 17 to 22 MPH, so locally critical conditions will
be met, especially across Sierra County. At this time though, it
appears less than half of each lowland zone will meet critical
conditions. No fire headlines will be issued for this shift, but
any increase in winds may warrant issuance with future updates.
Vent rates will be excellent.
SATURDAY...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL...Winds will increase again
on Saturday for the entire area, especially east slopes and higher
elevations, ranging 20 to 30 MPH. Temperatures will cool, however,
helping to improve RH values, especially in higher elevations and
locations west of the Rio Grande Valley (RGV). Areas along the
RGV, Tularosa Basin, and into West Texas will have the highest
probability for critical conditions, so a fire weather watch has
been issued. Portions of Zone 111, mainly Luna Co, look to meet
criteria as well, but I`m not confident enough a significant
portion of the fire zone will meet criteria to include it in the
watch.
REST OF PERIOD...We enter a stretch of quieter weather. It will be
very dry and warm Sunday onward, but winds look to fall short of
any critical thresholds. Elevated conditions will be possible on
Sunday as winds top out around 15 MPH, but no critical conditions
are anticipated Sunday onward at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 65 85 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 58 83 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 58 82 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 56 81 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 44 57 33 53 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 52 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 46 67 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 52 78 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 49 75 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 64 83 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 54 87 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 59 90 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 59 78 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 62 87 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 60 81 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 62 81 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 54 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 54 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 57 79 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 56 80 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 50 70 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 49 68 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 46 68 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 45 68 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 49 74 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 50 76 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 44 67 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 44 70 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 48 73 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 46 68 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 48 71 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 51 76 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 52 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 51 76 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 49 70 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ055-056.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418>424.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for TXZ055-056.
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ110>113.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ403-406>411-
414-417-426-428-429.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ415-416-
427.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NMZ112.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown