Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-
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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
110 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015

...SPRING THAW PROGRESS FOR RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...

...SPRING WEATHER BLAZES INTO THE VALLEY - say SO LONG TO WINTER...

. General Conditions...

 - Snowpack...the shallow snow cover...increasing daylight and sun
    angle...along with the recent warm temperatures have teamed up
     to eliminate most of the snowpack in the Red River basin. Some
      remnants of a raggedy snowpack barely show in the tree lines
       and shelter belts north of Grand Forks and are in a swift
        decline up near the US-Canada border...especially in parts
         of Cavalier...Roseau and Lake of the Woods counties.

 - Ground Frost...Topmost soil layers have been thawing due to solar
    and thermal energy while deep soil frost will take more time to
     come out...with persistent temperatures above the freezing point
      throughout the later half of March and/or periods of light
       spring rains.

 - River/Lake Conditions...Ice cover on the rivers...streams and
    lakes in the Red River Basin are beginning to respond to solar
     and thermal degradation...becoming gray and slushy on top...
      and with bottom erosion occurring in the more turbulent areas
       on the rivers and streams. Base flows on the rivers and larger
        streams have been running near normal throughout the winter.

 - Upcoming Weather...Overall dry weather is expected the next week
    with temperatures well above freezing everyday...50s to 70s...and
     occasionally overnight. These conditions will continue to thaw
      frozen ground and melt remaining ditch and shelter belt snow.
As
       a result...headwaters of streams and rivers are expected to
        begin to open up this weekend in those areas with enough snow
         melt to cause runoff to rivers such as the Roseau...Two
Rivers
          ...Tamarac...Ottertail and Pembina...as well as the streams
           in the Upper Devils Lake Basin.

 - Expect a minimal response in streams and rivers throughout the
    coming week with any snowmelt flow remaining largely within
banks.
     River forecasts will begin if and when any forecast points are
      expected to rise to or above Action Stage.

The 7-Day forecasts are presented as text products of daily river
stages at established river forecast locations and hydrographs of
6-hour river stages for the previous 3 days and for the next 7 days.
These graphs and text products are available from the NWS Grand Forks
AHPS web page on the internet at:

                  www.weather.gov/grandforks

then click on the "Rivers and Lakes AHPS" tab above the map or the
link in the menu on the left side of the web page.

If you have any questions...contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

We will be updating the Spring Thaw Progress reports periodically
during the next few weeks as we see conditions changing or until
the spring thaw is over.

$$
www.weather.gov/fgf
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