Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
000
FGUS73 KFGF 231903
ESFFGF
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-301200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
0100 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
AND ITS MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS NOW USE 64 YEARS (1949-2012)
OF PAST WEATHER...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION...FOR THE
ENSEMBLE PREDICTIVE HYDROGRAPHS USED IN CALCULATING THE
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING A RIVER LEVEL FOR THE VALID PERIOD
OF THE OUTLOOK.
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS TWO SECTIONS...
- THE FIRST GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES OF
RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR
FLOOD CATEGORY.
- THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS RISING
ABOVE THE RIVER STAGES LISTED.
...RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...
VALID FROM DECEMBER 29, 2014 TO MARCH 29, 2015
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
- CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
- HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABIITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
- WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS
IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 12/29/2014 - 3/29/2015
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS S PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
WAHPETON 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 6 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
HICKSON 30.0 34.0 38.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
FARGO 18.0 25.0 30.0 : 17 25 <5 6 <5 <5
HALSTAD 26.0 32.0 37.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
GRAND FORKS 28.0 40.0 46.0 : <5 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
OSLO 26.0 30.0 36.0 : <5 14 <5 10 <5 <5
DRAYTON 32.0 38.0 42.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
PEMBINA 39.0 44.0 49.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
SABIN 12.0 15.0 19.0 : 12 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
HAWLEY 7.0 9.0 11.0 : <5 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
DILWORTH 12.0 20.0 26.0 : 6 26 <5 <5 <5 <5
TWIN VALLEY 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HENDRUM 20.0 28.0 32.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
SHELLY 14.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
CLIMAX 20.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HIGH LANDING 12.0 12.5 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
CROOKSTON 15.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
ABOVE WARREN 67.0 71.0 75.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ALVARADO 106.0 108.0 110.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HALLOCK 802.0 806.0 810.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
ROSEAU 16.0 18.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
ABERCROMBIE 10.0 12.0 18.0 : <5 9 <5 7 <5 <5
VALLEY CITY 15.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LISBON 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
KINDRED 16.0 19.0 20.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
WEST FARGO DVRSN 18.0 20.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HARWOOD 884.0 886.0 891.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ENDERLIN 9.5 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MAPLETON 905.0 908.0 910.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
HILLSBORO 10.0 13.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MINTO 6.0 8.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
GRAFTON 12.0 13.5 14.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
WALHALLA 11.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
NECHE 18.0 19.0 20.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND:
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
HS = HISTIRUCAK SIMULATION ( " " NORMAL CONDITIONS)
FT = FEET (ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM)
...RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...
VALID FROM DECEMBER 29, 2014 TO MARCH 29, 2015
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD AT THE LOCATION LISTED.
INTERPRETATION AID...THE FLOOD STAGE FOR WAHPETON ON THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH IS 10 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 7.5 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 10.0 FEET.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 12/29/2014 - 3/29/2015
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
WAHPETON 5.1 5.1 5.6 7.5 8.6 10.0 11.5
HICKSON 11.2 11.2 11.3 13.8 16.2 19.7 23.2
FARGO 14.8 14.8 15.3 16.2 17.3 19.8 21.3
HALSTAD 4.9 4.9 5.7 8.8 12.6 16.3 18.4
GRAND FORKS 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.6 19.5 21.2 22.2
OSLO 9.0 9.0 9.0 10.3 15.4 19.2 21.3
DRAYTON 12.2 12.2 12.2 13.2 16.3 19.0 21.7
PEMBINA 12.8 12.8 12.8 15.1 20.6 25.2 27.6
MINNESOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
SOUTH FORK BUFFALO RIVER.....
SABIN 5.5 5.5 7.3 10.0 11.2 12.3 12.6
BUFFALO RIVER.....
HAWLEY 3.4 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.5
DILWORTH 3.9 3.9 4.9 7.1 9.8 11.6 12.9
WILD RICE RIVER.....
TWIN VALLEY 2.0 2.0 2.5 3.3 3.9 4.6 5.1
HENDRUM 1.9 2.0 2.7 6.2 9.8 13.6 14.8
MARSH RIVER.....
SHELLY 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.4 5.8 6.7 7.1
SAND HILL RIVER.....
CLIMAX 4.1 4.3 5.0 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.5
RED LAKE RIVER.....
HIGH LANDING 8.9 8.9 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.1
CROOKSTON 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.6 9.1 9.8 11.1
SNAKE RIVER.....
ABOVE WARREN 60.8 60.8 60.9 61.6 62.0 62.4 62.9
ALVARADO 96.4 96.4 96.4 97.0 97.8 98.6 100.1
TWO RIVERS RIVER.....
HALLOCK 793.3 793.3 795.4 796.0 796.7 797.3 797.9
ROSEAU RIVER.....
ROSEAU 5.3 5.3 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.6 7.9
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
WILD RICE RIVER.....
ABERCROMBIE 0.7 0.8 2.0 3.0 4.1 5.2 6.4
SHEYENNE RIVER.....
VALLEY CITY 4.3 4.4 4.5 5.1 6.5 7.6 8.6
LISBON 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.6 5.2 7.0 10.1
KINDRED 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.8 5.9 9.1 12.0
WEST FARGO DVRSN 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.2 12.2 14.0 14.5
HARWOOD 868.4 868.4 868.4 869.4 873.9 877.2 879.3
MAPLE RIVER.....
ENDERLIN 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.2 6.1 6.9 7.6
MAPLETON 894.6 894.6 894.6 895.7 899.0 901.7 902.9
GOOSE RIVER.....
HILLSBORO 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 3.1 3.6 3.8
FOREST RIVER.....
MINTO 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.8 3.6 4.1
PARK RIVER.....
GRAFTON 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.6 8.0 8.8 9.9
PEMBINA RIVER.....
WALHALLA 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.6
NECHE 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.9 4.0 5.2 6.1
.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS COMMUNITY HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (CHPS). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER, LOW AND
SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING NEARLY 63 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED FOR THOSE PAST YEARS
DURING THE TIME-FRAME OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THESE CRESTS CAN THEN
BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST, AND THEN BE ASSIGNED AN
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE, FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS, THE
LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT, IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).
THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY USING THEM AS
AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE NWS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREA`S DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
WITH LONG-RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS. THIS OUTLOOK
IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S AHPS (ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).
THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THE YEARS 1949 THROUGH 2012.
.ADDTIONNAL INFORMATION SOURCES...
THE AHPS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
EACH MONTH TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND FRIDAY AFTER
MID-MONTH HOWEVER, SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE
ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL SPRING MELT PERIOD,
USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND
ENDING IN EARLY APRIL, DDEPENDINGON THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS, TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS OR WEATHER.GOV/FGF
THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP
...OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE, LEFT-HAND BANNER.
CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE, AS WELL AS THE 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN
THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.
A NEW, POINT SPECIFIC FLOOD BRIEFING WEB PAGE IS AVAILABLE AT:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/BRIEFING/FLOODBRIEFING.PHP
ALSO, 7-DAY DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED AT LEAST ONCE A
DAY WHEN THE RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS WILL BE AT FLOOD DURING THAT
PERIOD.
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
REFER TO THE SEPARATE DEVILS LAKE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OURLOOK
FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE LEVELS AND LOW-
WATER NON-EXCEEDANCE LEVELS.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/FGF
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- Page last modified: Jan 15th, 2015 00:11 UTC