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FGUS73 KFGF 292119
ESFFGF
NDC005-027-071-301200-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
0416 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                          Devils and Stump Lakes
                    Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook

  The National Weather Service is providing long-range probabilistic
   hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January
    and September. They will not be provided between October and
     December.

  The AHPS graphics associated with this outlook will be on the web
   no later than 10:30 AM this Friday under the experimental
    long-range flood risk tab at...

             water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fgf

  Depending on the season, the high or low water probabilities may
   be omitted due to their applicability to the hydrologic situation.
    Refer to the scheduling section farther on in this message.


. Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes rising above given lake levels...

  The probability of exceeding a given lake level is the percentage
   of maximum lake level rises that are above that level for all the
    years that were run through the model using the precipitation
     and temperatures for those years during the valid period of the
      outlook.

  Interpretation Aid...There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
   Lake will rise above 1450.1 feet during the valid period and
    only a 5 percent chance that it will rise above 1450.2 feet.

           Probabilities for exceeding listed lake levels

               FROM JULY 24, 2016 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2016

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Devils Lake.....
  CREEL BAY         1450.1 1450.1 1450.1 1450.1 1450.1 1450.2 1450.2
Stump Lake.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1450.1 1450.1 1450.1 1450.1 1450.1 1450.2 1450.2


. Current and previous record high lake levels...

 *  The current height of Devils Lake at Creel Bay is 1450.0 feet
 *  The current height of  Stump Lake near Lakota  is 1450.0feet

 *  The most recent USGS provisional record daily average height
    for Devils Lake at the Creel Bay gage:
                ...1454.30 feet on   June 27 of 2011
 *  Previous records:
                ...1452.05 feet on   June 27 of 2010
                ...1450.93 feet on   June 27 of 2009
                ...1449.20 feet on    May  9 of 2006
                ...1449.18 feet on   June 17 of 2004
                ...1449.17 feet on August  2 of 2005

 * For more high water marks...see the USGS flood tracking charts at:

         waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?m=floods&r=nd&w=map

. Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes falling below given lake
levels...

  The probability of not exceeding a given lake level is the
   percentage of lake level falls that are below that level for
    all the years that were run through the model using the
     precipitation and temperatures for those years during the
      valid period of the outlook.

  Interpretation Aid...There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
   Lake will fall below 1448.9 feet during the valid period and
    only a 5 percent chance that it will fall below 1448.7 feet.

           Probabilities for non-exceeding listed lake levels

               FROM JULY 24, 2016 TO NOVEMBER 30, 2016

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Devils Lake.....
  CREEL BAY         1449.7 1449.4 1449.1 1448.9 1448.8 1448.7 1448.7
Stump Lake.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1449.7 1449.4 1449.1 1448.9 1448.8 1448.7 1448.7

  The non-exceedance value for a listed percentage is the value
    where that percentage of all model cases run were below that
      lake level for the specified valid period of the outlook.

. Outlook Schedule...

 - Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of September.

 - Special Spring Flood and Water Management Outlooks will be issued
    in late February and, two weeks later, in early March.

 - For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances
    will be provided.

 - For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of November.

 - No probability of exceedance/non-exceedance information will be
    given from October through December, since lake freeze-up
     levels will be given in the fall outlooks previously issued.

. Additional Information...

Wind and Wave forecasts for Devils and Stump lakes are available for
a seven day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at:

           www.weather.gov/fgf/lake_info

The long-range probabilistic outlook is based on high and low lake
  levels that were calculated for the valid period using multiple
  scenarios of temperature and precipitation from 1949 to 2012 and
  current conditions of the lake, snowcover (in winter), and soil
  moisture.

A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

By providing the complete range of lake level probabilities, the
  amount of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
  be determined. These probabilistic outlooks are part of Noah`s
  National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
  Services (AHPS).

This outlook is also presented as probability graphs of lake height
  for the full period as well as weekly probabilities. The outlook
  graphics and explanations that help in interpreting these outlooks
  are available from...the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page at:

             water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?/wfo=fgf

When available (see schedule above) the AHPS graphics for monthly
  outlooks should be available by mid-morning or early afternoon.
  Monthly probabilistic outlooks are issued on the Friday of the week
  following the first Thursday after the 15Th of the month. Special
  spring flood and water management outlooks are issued on Thursday
  afternoons in late February and then again, two weeks later in
early
  March to coincide with the spring snow melt. Due to the lake
  freeze-up will not be issued from October through December.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

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      weather.gov/fgf
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