000
FGUS73 KFGF 231444
ESFFGF
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-211200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
900 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015


...RED RIVER BASIN JANUARY 2015 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

         THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
         AND ITS MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.

CURRENTLY THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT...IMPACTFUL...SNOWMELT FLOODING
   IS QUITE LOW. GENERALLY MUCH LESS THAN THE HISTORICAL RISK
   FOR POINTS ALONG THE RED RIVER FROM WAHPETON TO PEMBINA.

THE LOW RISK OF FLOODING IS DUE TO THESE CURRENT RED RIVER BASIN
CONDITIONS...
  -NORMAL BASE STREAMFLOWS ON AREA RIVERS
  -BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE PRIOR TO FREEZE UP
  -MUCH BELOW NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE SNOWPACK

THE SECOND HALF OF WINTER IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

 OUTLOOK SCHEDULE - THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS,
   NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE PROVIDING THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
   PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS FOR
   THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AND ITS MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA
   TRIBUTARIES ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING SCHEDULE:

    - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19TH, 2015
    - THURSDAY MARCH 5TH, 2015

  PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS NOW USE 64 YEARS (1949-2012)
    OF PAST WEATHER...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION...FOR THE
    ENSEMBLE PREDICTIVE HYDROGRAPHS USED IN CALCULATING THE
    PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING A RIVER LEVEL FOR THE VALID PERIOD OF
    THE OUTLOOK.

  THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS TWO SECTIONS...

    - THE FIRST GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES OF
       RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR
        FLOOD CATEGORY.

    - THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS RISING
       ABOVE THE RIVER STAGES LISTED.

...RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...

            VALID FROM JANUARY 26, 2015  TO APRIL 26, 2015

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
  PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
  STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

  - CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
    BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

  - HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
    BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

  - WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
    EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS
    IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS
    LOWER THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
                VALID PERIOD:   1/26/2015 - 4/26/2015

                                         : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                         :  CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                         :    FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                         :   AS S PERCENTAGE (%)
                         CATEGORICAL     :
                      FLOOD STAGES (FT)  :  MINOR   MODERATE  MAJOR
LOCATION            MINOR    MOD   MAJOR :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  16  47   <5  18   <5   7
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :  <5  16   <5   9   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 :  36  67    6  32   <5  18
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  <5  29   <5  13   <5   6
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :   7  53   <5  29   <5   9
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  15  58    7  49   <5  18
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :   6  38   <5  29   <5   9
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :   6  47   <5  36   <5  20
MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
  SABIN               12.0   15.0   19.0 :  32  61   <5  12   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               7.0    9.0   11.0 :  <5  46   <5  23   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            12.0   20.0   26.0 :  30  67   <5  15   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  <5  43   <5  16   <5  <5
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5  26   <5   7   <5  <5
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  23   <5   7   <5  <5
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  <5  27   <5  21   <5  16
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :  <5  47   <5  13   <5   6
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  <5   7   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  <5  20   <5   9   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  18  56   <5  38   <5   6
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5  18   <5  10   <5  10
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :  <5  35   <5  30   <5  16
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5  15   <5   6   <5   6
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  18   <5   9   <5   6
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :   7  21   <5  15   <5   9
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :   6  21   <5  16   <5   7
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  <5  18   <5   6   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :   9  30   <5  10   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5  15   <5   9   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  15  30    9  10   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :  <5  16   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  15   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  20   <5  18   <5  12

LEGEND:
    CS  =  CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
    HS  =  HISTORICAL SIMULATION  ( "       "  NORMAL  CONDITIONS)
    FT  =  FEET                   (ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM)



...RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...

            VALID FROM JANUARY 26, 2015  TO APRIL 26, 2015

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
  PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
    VALID TIME PERIOD AT THE LOCATION LISTED.

  INTERPRETATION AID...THE FLOOD STAGE FOR WAHPETON ON THE RED
   RIVER OF THE NORTH IS 11 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
   THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 8.6 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
   THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 12.4 FEET.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                                 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                   AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                           VALID PERIOD:   1/26/2015 - 4/26/2015


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
  WAHPETON             5.8    6.5    7.5    8.6   10.1   12.4   13.0
  HICKSON             12.1   12.4   14.2   16.2   20.0   25.5   27.7
  FARGO               15.5   15.7   16.3   17.1   19.9   23.2   28.8
  HALSTAD              7.2    7.8    9.7   13.1   17.3   22.3   25.7
  GRAND FORKS         17.2   17.5   18.5   19.9   21.9   27.8   32.5
  OSLO                10.0   10.7   13.3   17.0   20.5   27.8   32.3
  DRAYTON             13.0   13.5   15.6   17.9   21.7   29.0   32.6
  PEMBINA             15.7   16.4   20.8   25.0   31.2   38.4   40.2


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
SOUTH FORK BUFFALO RIVER.....
  SABIN                8.2    8.8   10.5   11.5   12.4   13.6   14.5
BUFFALO RIVER.....
  HAWLEY               3.9    4.0    4.3    4.6    5.2    5.9    6.2
  DILWORTH             5.6    6.4    8.7   10.8   12.5   15.9   18.9
WILD RICE RIVER.....
  TWIN VALLEY          2.8    2.9    3.3    4.0    5.0    5.6    6.5
  HENDRUM              3.6    4.4    6.5   10.2   13.9   18.6   20.2
MARSH RIVER.....
  SHELLY               4.0    4.2    4.9    5.7    6.8    8.8   13.1
SAND HILL RIVER.....
  CLIMAX               5.0    5.2    5.7    6.3    7.4   10.3   11.8
RED LAKE RIVER.....
  HIGH LANDING         8.9    9.0    9.3    9.5    9.8   10.2   11.1
  CROOKSTON            7.6    7.8    8.3    9.3   10.5   12.0   14.3
SNAKE RIVER.....
  ABOVE WARREN        61.4   61.6   61.8   62.2   62.7   63.2   65.8
  ALVARADO            96.9   97.3   97.9   98.8  100.0  101.1  103.9
TWO RIVERS RIVER.....
  HALLOCK            796.3  796.7  797.2  797.8  800.7  804.3  805.1
ROSEAU RIVER.....
  ROSEAU               6.6    6.8    7.2    8.2    9.3   11.5   15.1


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
WILD RICE RIVER.....
  ABERCROMBIE          1.8    1.9    2.8    3.5    5.1    8.2   13.7
SHEYENNE RIVER.....
  VALLEY CITY          4.2    4.2    4.8    6.3    7.6    9.1    9.7
  LISBON               2.9    2.9    3.7    5.5    7.9   10.5   14.2
  KINDRED              2.9    3.0    4.2    6.7    9.1   13.4   18.3
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.8    9.9   10.5   12.3   14.1   17.0   20.0
  HARWOOD            868.1  868.8  870.5  874.4  877.1  881.2  886.8
MAPLE RIVER.....
  ENDERLIN             2.0    2.0    3.6    5.2    6.3    7.7    8.6
  MAPLETON           894.5  895.3  896.0  899.2  901.5  904.7  907.6
GOOSE RIVER.....
  HILLSBORO            1.7    1.7    2.3    3.0    3.6    4.7    6.4
FOREST RIVER.....
  MINTO                1.5    1.6    2.0    2.7    5.1    7.7    8.9
PARK RIVER.....
  GRAFTON              7.4    7.4    7.7    8.0    8.6   10.7   12.4
PEMBINA RIVER.....
  WALHALLA             2.2    2.5    3.0    3.9    5.4    7.4    7.6
  NECHE                3.3    3.7    4.9    6.7    9.0   13.3   14.8



.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS COMMUNITY HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (CHPS). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER LEVELS AND SOIL
CONDITIONS AND USING OVER 60 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED FOR THOSE PAST YEARS
DURING THE TIME-FRAME OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THESE CRESTS CAN THEN
BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST, AND THEN BE ASSIGNED AN EXCEEDANCE
PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE, FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS, THE LOWEST
RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT OF THE
CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT, IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDANCE (POE).

THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY USING THEM AS
AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE NWS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREA`S DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
WITH LONG-RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS. THIS OUTLOOK
IS A PART OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S AHPS (ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICES).

.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

THE AHPS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
EACH MONTH TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND FRIDAY AFTER
MID-MONTH HOWEVER, SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE
ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL SPRING MELT PERIOD,
USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND
ENDING IN EARLY APRIL, DEPENDING ON THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS, TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

        WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS OR WEATHER.GOV/FGF

  THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP
  ...OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE, LEFT-HAND BANNER.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE, AS WELL AS THE 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN
THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.

A NEW, POINT SPECIFIC FLOOD BRIEFING WEB PAGE IS AVAILABLE AT:

   WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/BRIEFING/FLOODBRIEFING.PHP

ALSO, 7-DAY DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED AT LEAST ONCE A
DAY WHEN THE RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS WILL BE AT FLOOD DURING THAT
PERIOD.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

REFER TO THE SEPARATE DEVILS LAKE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE LEVELS AND LOW-
WATER NON-EXCEEDANCE LEVELS.

$$
     WEATHER.GOV/FGF
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