Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Eastern Grand Forks ND
955 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025


...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

  Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks use 70 years (1949-2019) of
    past weather, temperature, and precipitation for the ensemble
    predictive hydrographs used in calculating the probabilities of
    exceeding a river level for the valid period of the outlook.

  Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
    North Dakota provides Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
    Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
    North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:

    - Near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...

    - Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that are issued
       prior to the spring snowmelt season beginning in mid-to-late
        February.

  The following message has three river data sections:

    - The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
       chances of river locations reaching their minor, moderate,
        and major flood categories.

    - The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
       locations rising above the river stages listed.

    - The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
       locations falling below the river flows listed.


In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS), or normal,
  probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood
  stages are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on historical, or normal, conditions.

  - When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
    is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is
    lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate, and Major Flooding...
               Valid Period:   05/26/2025 - 08/24/2025


                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as a Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  Wahpeton            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  61  55   28  23   <5   6
  Hickson             30.0   34.0   38.0 :  17  10   <5   5   <5  <5
  Fargo               18.0   25.0   30.0 : >95  61   21  12   11   8
  Halstad             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  11   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  Grand Forks         28.0   40.0   46.0 :  24  23   <5   6   <5  <5
  Oslo                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  24  28   17  18   <5  <5
  Drayton             32.0   38.0   42.0 :   8   8   <5   6   <5  <5
  Pembina             39.0   44.0   49.0 :   9  15   <5   9   <5  <5



                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as a Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Minnesota Tributaries.....
  Sabin               13.0   15.0   19.0 :  36  23    6  <5   <5  <5
  Hawley               8.0    9.0   11.0 :  12  10    7   6   <5  <5
  Dilworth            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  41  32    6   5   <5  <5
  Twin Valley         10.0   12.0   14.0 :   6   5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  Hendrum             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  20  21    6   5   <5  <5
  Shelly              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  Climax              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  High Landing        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  Crookston           15.0   20.0   23.0 :  13  20   <5   7   <5  <5
  Above Warren        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  Alvarado           106.0  108.0  110.0 :   5   8   <5  <5   <5  <5
  Hallock            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  14  23    5  11   <5  <5
  Roseau              16.0   18.0   19.0 :   6   6   <5  <5   <5  <5



                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as a Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  Abercrombie         20.0   22.0   28.0 :  22  15   16   9    5  <5
  Valley City         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  Lisbon              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  Kindred             16.0   19.0   20.5 :   6   8   <5  <5   <5  <5
  West Fargo Dvsn     18.0   20.0   21.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  Harwood             84.0   86.0   91.0 :  11   7    9   6   <5  <5
  Enderlin             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  10   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  Mapleton            18.0   21.0   23.0 :  18  12    8   6   <5  <5
  Hillsboro           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  Minto                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  Walhalla            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  Neche               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5   6   <5   6   <5  <5

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (current outlook)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation
    ft  =  Feet


In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (ft) for the
    valid time period at the locations listed.


      ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
               Valid Period:   05/26/2025 - 08/24/2025


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  Wahpeton             9.5    9.5    9.6   11.8   13.1   14.3   14.6
  Hickson             22.4   22.4   22.4   23.9   26.6   31.8   32.8
  Fargo               20.2   20.2   20.2   20.5   23.9   30.8   32.9
  Halstad             13.5   13.5   13.5   15.6   19.9   26.5   27.7
  Grand Forks         18.9   18.9   19.1   20.8   25.9   32.0   37.4
  Oslo                14.2   14.2   14.8   17.9   24.9   32.2   34.1
  Drayton             15.7   15.7   16.2   18.6   25.2   31.1   34.2
  Pembina             19.7   19.8   21.1   25.6   32.1   37.3   42.8


Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  Sabin                6.4    6.5    8.5   11.7   13.6   14.0   15.3
Buffalo River.....
  Hawley               4.1    4.2    4.7    5.3    6.2    8.5   10.0
  Dilworth             5.9    5.9    6.7   11.4   15.4   19.1   20.2
Wild Rice River.....
  Twin Valley          2.9    2.9    3.1    4.3    6.2    8.6   10.2
  Hendrum              8.4    8.4    9.4   12.4   19.4   22.8   29.4
Marsh River.....
  Shelly               4.8    4.8    4.8    6.4   10.5   12.1   13.2
Sand Hill River.....
  Climax               5.3    5.8    6.9    7.9   11.1   14.2   17.2
Red Lake River.....
  High Landing         4.0    4.0    4.2    5.1    6.8    8.6    9.0
  Crookston            5.3    5.5    7.3    8.7   11.6   16.4   18.9
Snake River.....
  Above Warren        61.3   61.3   61.5   62.4   63.3   64.4   65.4
  Alvarado            96.9   96.9   97.0   98.7  101.2  104.3  106.2
Two Rivers River.....
  Hallock            793.6  794.0  795.7  797.2  799.6  804.1  806.3
Roseau River.....
  Roseau               5.8    5.8    6.1    7.3    8.9   10.3   16.6


North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  Abercrombie         11.7   11.7   11.7   13.4   18.9   24.9   28.4
Sheyenne River.....
  Valley City          5.4    5.4    5.4    6.4    7.7   11.3   12.4
  Lisbon               4.6    4.6    4.6    5.5    7.6   11.4   13.1
  Kindred              5.8    5.8    5.8    7.0   10.1   14.2   17.0
  West Fargo Dvsn      8.9    8.9    8.9   10.1   11.6   14.7   16.6
  Harwood             72.0   72.0   72.0   73.0   77.4   85.3   89.5
Maple River.....
  Enderlin             1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    4.5    9.8   11.3
  Mapleton             8.2    8.2    8.2   10.2   13.9   20.2   22.3
Goose River.....
  Hillsboro            2.0    2.0    2.0    2.5    3.6    6.1    8.9
Forest River.....
  Minto                1.4    1.4    1.5    1.9    2.7    4.8    5.6
Pembina River.....
  Walhalla             2.8    2.8    2.8    3.2    4.4    5.8    8.3
  Neche                4.6    4.6    4.6    5.4    7.5   10.7   16.2


In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of falling below the listed flow levels (kcfs) for
   the valid time period at the locations listed.

       ...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Flow (kcfs) at Specific Locations

               Valid Period:   05/26/2025 - 08/24/2025


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  Wahpeton             1.1    0.8    0.6    0.4    0.3    0.2    0.2
  Hickson              1.2    0.9    0.6    0.4    0.3    0.2    0.2
  Fargo                1.3    1.0    0.7    0.5    0.3    0.2    0.2
  Halstad              2.0    1.6    1.2    0.8    0.7    0.5    0.5
  Grand Forks          3.4    2.7    2.0    1.4    1.1    0.9    0.8
  Oslo                 3.4    2.7    2.1    1.4    1.1    0.9    0.8
  Drayton              3.5    2.9    2.2    1.5    1.2    1.0    0.9
  Pembina              4.0    3.3    2.6    1.7    1.3    1.1    1.0


Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  Sabin                0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
Buffalo River.....
  Hawley               0.1    0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
  Dilworth             0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0
Wild Rice River.....
  Twin Valley          0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
  Hendrum              0.2    0.2    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
Marsh River.....
  Shelly               0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
Sand Hill River.....
  Climax               0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
Red Lake River.....
  High Landing         0.4    0.4    0.3    0.2    0.2    0.1    0.1
  Crookston            0.6    0.6    0.5    0.3    0.3    0.2    0.2
Snake River.....
  Above Warren         0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
  Alvarado             0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
Two Rivers River.....
  Hallock              0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
Roseau River.....
  Roseau               0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0


North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  Abercrombie          0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
Sheyenne River.....
  Valley City          0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0
  Lisbon               0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.0
  Kindred              0.2    0.2    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
  West Fargo Dvsn      0.2    0.2    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
  Harwood              0.3    0.2    0.2    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
Maple River.....
  Enderlin             0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
  Mapleton             0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
Goose River.....
  Hillsboro            0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
Forest River.....
  Minto                0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
Pembina River.....
  Walhalla             0.2    0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
  Neche                0.2    0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0



.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long-range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels taken from the forecast hydrograph results of the NWS
 Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model is run for
 multiple scenarios starting at current river, snow, and soil
 conditions using 70 years of past precipitation and temperatures
 that were experienced for those past years during the timeframe of
 the outlook period. The crests are then ranked from lowest to
 highest and assigned an exceedance probability.

 A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" can
  be found at:

         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

These probabilities can be used for risk management as an indication
 of the range of crests that may be possible during the valid period
 of the outlook. However, note that it is possible that river levels
 may still reach levels below the 95th percentile, or above the 5th
 percentile, values.


.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

Exceedance information is also presented as graphs of the
 probability of stage exceedance for the full period and for weekly
 intervals throughout the period. These graphs, together with
 explanations that help in interpreting them, can be found on the
 NWS Grand Forks NWPS web page by clicking on "Rivers and Lakes"
 above the map at www.weather.gov/fgf.

Current river levels across the Red River of the North and
 Devils/Stump Lake basins are available on our web site.
 Additionally, 7-day deterministic forecasts are issued at least
 once a day when river forecast locations are expected to reach or
 exceed their designated action stage throughout that period.

Refer to the separate Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook for Devils
 and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and/or
 low-water non-exceedance levels.

If you have any questions, please contact NWS Grand Forks at
 701-772-0720.

You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on X at @NWSGrandForks.

$$
     www.weather.gov/fgf
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