293
FXUS61 KILN 010011
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
811 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
A cold front will move through on Tuesday, bringing with it
additional thunderstorm chances. Mostly dry conditions are expected
for Wednesday and Thursday, with warmer temperatures expected by the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ohio Valley remains in a warm sector with a warm and moist air mass
in place. Atmosphere has become unstable as well which has helped
support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms early this
afternoon. Given the high moisture content, with precipitable water
values near 2 inches, the main threat from storms will be heavy
rainfall. In addition to high rainfall rates, any storms that move
over the same areas may lead to localized instances of flash
flooding. Stronger storms could also produce isolated strong wind
gusts, although this risk looks a little less than previous days
given slightly less favorable instability (including lower expected
DCAPE).

Convection will wane in the evening however can`t rule out some
lingering showers into the night. A disturbance/approaching cold
front will bring a better chance or wider coverage of showers across
the Tri-State area close to sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front moves across across the area during the daytime Tuesday.
Expect showers to be ongoing at the beginning of Tuesday across the
Tri-State area, and showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to
move eastward through the morning and afternoon hours. Chances of
rain will decrease from west to east during the afternoon as drier
air starts to move in behind the cold front. Highs will be in the mid
80s.

With drier air and high pressure building in Tuesday night, skies
will become clear with lows down into the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The first completely dry day locally in quite some time is expected
on Wednesday as sfc high pressure and slightly drier/cooler air
builds into the region. This will mark the beginning of a much-
needed reprieve from daily widespread shower/storm chances, with an
opportunity for areas that have been impacted by recent heavy
rain/flooding to dry out a bit. Temps on Wednesday will be slightly
below seasonal norms, which will likely be the only day in the long
term period where the daily averages may be below normal. A warming
trend is expected toward the end of the workweek once again, with
the lone exception to this being the potential for a S/W to drift
into northeast/central OH into late Thursday, which may bring with
it some enhanced cloud cover and slightly "cooler" temps and perhaps
some low-end rain/storm chances as well. But the southern
progression of this feature is far from certain at this juncture,
with trends suggesting that most spots locally will remain dry
through this weekend.

In general, warmer and more humid conditions will return to the area
by this weekend, with dry conditions favored at this juncture. The
next opportunity for more widespread rain/storm chances will hold
off until Monday/Tuesday of next week. Until then, the ILN FA will
feel the impacts of an expanding midlevel ridge across the mid MS
Rvr Vly and wrn OH Vly this weekend, offering seasonably warm and
humid conditions. The combination of heat and humidity may push heat
index values close to 100 degrees by Sunday/Monday, but will wait
until there is a bit more agreement in the data before adding to the
HWO given the uncertainties in the timing of the arrival of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased significantly over the
past few hours. However, they should maintain themselves over the
next 2 hours as the back edge moves into central OH. In the 2-4 hour
time frame, they should be primarily confined to central OH and
CMH/LCK and have weakened significantly.

VFR conditions should occur overnight until some patchy fog develops
 at DAY/ILN towards daybreak. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will work in from the wsw before daybreak, affecting
CVG/LUK and then towards daybreak at ILN/DAY. The best instability
will be found to the south, and storms over the sw CWA will likely
work over the airmass reaching CMH/LCK later in the morning. Covered
this scenario with vicinity showers early, complemented with prob30
of thunder from 15-18Z. Skies should clear in the latter part of the
day and remain VFR through the evening as the true cold front should
be crossing towards nightfall. Isolated showers may occur along this
front, but this is a weak signal found in just a few model
solutions.

All of this timing and placement is in a state of flux as a few
models are suggesting a later start to activity - after daybreak and
then spreading eastward. Another scenario is that the southern
instability works over the atmosphere to where central OH could just
see a passing shower in the late morning and not much else.

A erratic and light winds will be found over the region until the
cold front crosses from nw-se late in the day.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Franks