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000
FXUS61 KILN 180603
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
203 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The area dries out through Thursday afternoon before the next
system moves into the Ohio Valley, bringing renewed chances for
rain and thunderstorms. After this system moves through, there
will be a notable cool down over the weekend, before
temperatures rebound slightly next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
All the precipitation has exited the area currently. Cannot
rule out a brief shower or storm across southeastern portions of
the region, however limited any precipitation mention to a
slight chance. Went close to the blend for temperatures
overnight. Increased cloud cover across northeastern portions of
the forecast area overnight. Cannot rule out some patchy fog
across southwestern portions of the region with winds decreasing
and cloud cover being less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
The weak ridging slowly moves east out of the region, with
mostly sunny Thursday morning skies being slowly replaced with
high clouds by Thursday late afternoon ahead of the next
shortwave system. The attendant weak surface low moves up from
the Ozarks region, bringing another push of theta-e through the
region late Thursday evening. Right now, high temperatures in
the low 80s along the Ohio River and highs in the mid 70s across
central Ohio.

12 and 18z CAM runs indicate a multicell cluster off to our
west quickly congealing into a (possibly bowing?) line as it
moves through out area. Right now, the higher severe threat
appears to be closer to the Tri- State, where forcing with the
shortwave is a bit stronger. In terms of hazards, primary
concerns will be damaging winds and large hail. With that being
said... time of arrival is still a bit up in the air and there
is some question as to whether the line arrives late enough in
the evening that available instability will be diminished.
Continued high moisture content suggests efficient rain rates
and the possibility for isolated areas of flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms on Friday will
taper off from the west through morning and into early afternoon
as the mid level short wave moves off to the east. A west to
northwest flow pattern will then set up aloft heading into the
weekend and remain in place across the region through the first
part of next week.

Surface high pressure over the northern Plains will nose down
into the Ohio Valley and then slowly shift southeast into the
southeast US through Monday. This will result in dry but cool
conditions across our area for Saturday through Monday. Daytimes
highs will be in in the 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows
down into the 30s. There will be the potential for some frost
conditions both Saturday and Sunday nights.

Mid level energy will drop southeast into the region Tuesday
into Wednesday, bringing the next chance for some showers and
perhaps a thunderstorms Temperatures will moderate a bit with
highs both days in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some post frontal CAA stratocumulus clouds will skim the
northern terminals overnight. Otherwise, the remainder of the
region will remain mostly clear as surface high pressure builds
into the middle Ohio Valley. Winds will be west/northwest
between 5 and 10 knots.

For today, surface high pressure will eventually shift east by
afternoon. It will remain dry as some high level clouds spill
into the area from the west. Winds will shift to a
south/southwest direction around 5 knots.

For tonight, low pressure is forecast to ride northeast along
an advancing cold front into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Showers and some embedded thunderstorms propagating east ahead
of the main cold front may make it to the western terminals
between 03Z and 06Z.

OUTLOOK...Showers and with a chance of thunderstorms, along with
MVFR ceilings/visibilities possible on Friday. Wind gusts
around 30 knots possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Hickman