Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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598 FXUS63 KIWX 302326 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 726 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonably warm conditions to dominate through Friday night. - A period of showers and isolated storms is expected Saturday afternoon and evening, with severe weather not expected. - Summer-like temperatures and humidity will bring increasing chances of showers and storms for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 No weather concerns for the next 36 to 48 hours as high pressure dominates, with plenty of sunshine and slowly moderating temperatures. A weak southern stream disturbance is still expected to move from the SW US into the Ohio Valley Saturday, bringing an increase in low level moisture (PWATs pushing 1.5") and lift. Scattered to possibly numerous showers and a few storms still appear on track, with a Sat AM arrival depicted by a few of the hi res models, but greater consensus fro the afternoon and evening hours. Poor shear profiles, MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG and paltry lapse rates all point towards no severe threat, but locally heavy rain would be possible. Slightly drier air arrives for Sunday into early Monday, before a deepening northern stream trough begins to take shape bringing a more unsettled pattern through at least mid week. Another disturbance arrives late Mon into Monday night with chances for a few showers/storms with it. This feature will bring low to mid 60 dewpoints to the area, setting the stage for much better chances for showers and storms by the middle of next week as the northern stream trough deepens with the closed upper low reaching the western Great Lakes by 00Z Thu. Some differences in timing and also extent of digging with the trough and subsequent position of the upper low. Suffice to say, looks like a wet mid week with temperatures eventually trending back below normal in the wake of the system. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 725 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 With the surface high pressure center overhead today, conditions remain dry with dew points in the 40s. This keeps fog formation chances low for this TAF period and allows for VFR conditions through the TAF period. With high pressure sliding eastward, northerly winds veer southerly by Friday morning, but stay weak until at least Saturday, when the gradient begins to increase and a low level jet arrives. The increasing southerly winds indicate increased warm air advection and that will allow for increased high cloudiness Friday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Roller