798
FXUS63 KIWX 141843
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
243 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms slowly arrive from south to north
  through this evening.

- Drying out after sunrise Wednesday and through most of
  Thursday.

- Warmer and remaining unsettled this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A surface low, stacked beneath a closed-low aloft, is spinning over
extreme eastern Missouri. A stationary front is noted in the
vicinity of the Michigan state line, where a could of showers
and a thunderstorm are ongoing. An area of showers have been
slowly making their way north through Indiana, on the nose of an
embedded vorticity maximum as seen on water vapor. These
showers will continue to slide north and eventually east
through the remainder of today and into Wednesday morning.
Instability and shear are lacking. Therefore, no severe weather
is expected. Overall, I do expect some showers to linger beyond
sunrise Wednesday from the Fort Wayne area southeastward,
followed by drying conditions.

A progressive mid-latitude jet stream keeps the frequent rain
chances in the forecast into early next week. Thursday will
offer a mostly dry day until showers and storms arrive near
sunset as a cold front approaches. Wet weather continues into
Friday as the trailing cold front interacts with a developing
low near the mid-Mississippi River Valley. This low threatens to
dampen Saturday as well; indicating Sunday could be the better
of weekend day. Amid the active pattern, broad brush POPs
continue into early next week. Trending warmer, however, with
highs in the 80s favored at times as southern US ride amplifies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Primarily dry with cigs in the high MVFR to low VFR range. Some weak
diurnal heating may spark a few showers/storms in the vicinity of a
stationary boundary this afternoon, though point chances remain on
the low side. Better shower chances arrive this evening into the
early overnight at mainly KFWA as deeper moisture associated with a
small scale vort max advects in from the south.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Steinwedel