365
FXUS63 KLBF 121736
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1236 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Chance of showers and thunderstorms today

*More widespread thunderstorm chances Tuesday afternoon and evening
with potential for strong to severe storms

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The main concern in the short term will be chances for
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Most CAMS are
showing a more isolated to scattered development of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly starting at noon and onward through the
evening hours. A few of the models bring in shower activity from the
south by mid morning with more of scattered to widespread
development. Expect the greater chance of more scattered to
widespread develop generally south of interstate 80, with more
isolated to scattered development north of the interstate into
the Sandhills and north central Nebraska. Don`t expect to much
wetting rainfall, however could see a quarter of an inch or more
in some locations, generally across southwest Nebraska, with
lesser amounts farther north. Although there will be a slight
chance for thunderstorms, the environment will be limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The next chance for precipitation will come Tuesday as a
shortwave trof begins to move east into the region. There will be a
chance for strong and even severe storms in the afternoon. There
will be a narrow corridor of 0 to 3 km CAPE around 1000 J/kg or
greater generally along and east of HWY 61 and along and west of HWY
183. This area would be the greatest concern for convective
development.

After Tuesday, there will be a couple more weak shortwaves that move
through, Wed. and Thu., which could lead to more slight
precipitation chances. After a brief cool down of temperatures on
Wednesday, temps will warm up into the upper 70s to low 80s by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A low pressure system tracking through the region brings widespread
showers and potential for thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight
across southwest Nebraska. Additionally, a cold front pushing south
from the Dakotas is causing a line of thunderstorms to form across
the northern Sandhills. However, VFR conditions are still expected
to prevail throughout the TAF period. For now, have omitted thunder
from the TAFs for KLBF, as current model guidance has the
thunderstorms weakening before reaching the terminal, however, this
may need amendment if storms overperform. Winds will mostly remain
northerly to northeasterly, but may become a bit erratic around
thunderstorms and the frontal boundary.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Richie