Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 232358
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS BROUGHT A SHIELD OF
RAIN ACROSS ERN SODAK...ERN NEB...AND INTO NWRN IA AND SWRN MN
TODAY. IT IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR TO
THE EAST DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING STEADY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT TONIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CANADA. THUS...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPAND INTO ERN MN AND
WRN WI DURING THE SHORT TERM. KEPT POPS IN THE SCHC CATEGORY.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE LONG TERM REMAIN THE CONTINUATION OF
LOW END POPS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF TAKING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANY THREAT OF SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN THIS AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ENOUGH
DRYING DEVELOPS TO ERODE THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST. ALL MODELS WERE
INDICATING HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 925-850 MB LAYER AS
THE EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. HAVE
TEMPERED READINGS A BIT FOR THAT REASON. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL
WARM TREND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RISING HEIGHTS ENVELOP THE AREA. SOME LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE A GOOD BET FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD OCCUR TO THE LEE OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL AREAS.

THE MILD...DRY REGIME SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE
NEXT TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
12Z ECWMF CONTINUES IT TREND OF AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE AFFECTING
THE AREA THEN...WITH THE MAIN FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WED OR
THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

BESIDES KAXN...WHICH COULD SEE A PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT
WITH THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE 5000 FT. LIGHT WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...BUT THE RAIN WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
REDUCE THE VISIBILITY MUCH BELOW 7-8 MILES.

KMSP...

VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND FOR THE MORNING
RUSH TOMORROW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WILL BARELY BE ENOUGH TO WET THE PAVEMENT AND
SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON AIR TRAVEL.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR CIGS PSBL OVERNIGHT. WINDS SSE 12-15G25 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 7-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF






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