Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 101736
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1136 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE REST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOLER
THAN NORMAL...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY WITH RAP SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MN...WITH A SURFACE LOW UPSTREAM OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE SLOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NEBRASKA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PV
ANOMALY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WAS
ALREADY ON RADAR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN...AND WESTERN WI
WILL BE DRY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COLD THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAYS HIGHS AND TONIGHTS
LOWS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/ WILL FEATURE A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND THUS A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CWA WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY UNDER A RIDGE AXIS
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER OVER
SOUTHWEST MN WHEN A RIPPLE /NOT UNLIKE THE ONE CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ EXPLOITS A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE
RIDGING. ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.

THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AS A 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE LATE UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE CWA...AND LIKELY INTO THE -20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN
AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

THAT HIGH WILL BE WHAT FINALLY KICKS THE TROUGH OUT OF NEW ENGLAND
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MARK A TRANSITION TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA AS A RIDGE SLOWLY
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

THE FIRST OF TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WAA SNOW
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS IS MORE
BULLISH THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PLOWABLE ACCUMULATION BY SUNDAY EVENING. POPS WERE ALMOST BROUGHT
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...BUT KEPT THEM JUST BELOW 55 WITH SOME
PRETTY LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS TIME RANGE...NAMELY THE
LOW TRACK WHICH IS ALMOST 500 MILES BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

THE SECOND SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
A BIT FURTHER EAST...THIS ONE COULD WRAP UP INTO A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM A LA THE ECMWF. STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE GUIDANCE...CERTAINLY NOT UNEXPECTED GIVEN IT IS 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE BAND OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM MEMPHIS TN BACK NW TO
SASKATCHEWAN MORE OR LESS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
PERIOD. ONLY CHANGE IS THAT THE -SN CURRENTLY FALLING IN SW/SC MN
WILL BE PULLING OUT OF MN BY 20Z. AS IT DOES SO...ANY MVFR CIGS
WILL RISE BACK TO VFR AND WILL REMAIN THERE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WITH A SFC HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD...WE
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WELL.

KMSP...ONLY AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TAF IS WITH WIND
DIRECTION...THOUGH THAT IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS...SO THE VRB
DIRECTION WILL NOT BE A HUGE ISSUE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G20 KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND E AT 5 KT.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN LIKELY. WIND S 15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG


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