Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 190514

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1114 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Short term concerns remain temperature trend into Sunday.

Gusty northwest winds in the wake of the cold front should
decrease early this evening and become lighter and more southerly
Sunday as weak surface ridge moves through. Any lower clouds
should erode to the east this evening. There will be at least
some high clouds streaming across the area Sunday and may limit
heating potential somewhat to the southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

The longer term issues are timing of cold fronts/short wave
troughs over the region and any chance of precipitation as upper
flow pattern remains more northwest.

Initially we have a cold front which will sweep southeast of the
area Monday night into Tuesday morning. Strong warming out ahead
of the front will generate highs in the lower 50s southwest and
mid/upper 40s elsewhere. Only limiting factor would be any
mid/high level clouds moving through the area.

The said cold front appears to be lacking significant moisture so
any threat of precipitation should be found over northern MN.
Colder air and gusty northwest winds develop for later Monday
night into Tuesday. We did bump winds up some. May not be strong
enough especially over the western area. We could be close to wind
advisory during this period. Gusts to 30Kts likely.

THe next weak short wave moves into the area Wednesday/Wednesday
night. The deterministic models indicated there is a chance of
some light precipitation during this period as warmer
air/isentropic lift moves through. It will be a question if we
have enough Pacific type moisture to saturate lower levels and
generate the precipitation. It looks to be in the form of light
snow/flurries if it does occur. We adjusted PoPs some and held
some lower end PoP over the northern CWA Wednesday afternoon and
to the east Wednesday night. It looks to be light if it does occur
and should affect travel.

Brief cooling behind the front for Thanksgiving but will be a few
degrees above normal. The next system arrives for Friday and
should draw warmer air out ahead of it. Readings topping 50 again
to the southwest possible. The models diverge some later into the
weekend with the 12z ECMWF more amplified/strong with the next
short wave for Saturday. The blended guidance came in dry or
closer to the GFS solution at least initially. We will hold onto
that for now and continue to monitor model trends handling the
fast upper flow from the Pacific Northwest. Both trend much
colder again at least the first half of the following week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

MVFR clouds are hanging tough out in WI, though NAM/RAP forecast
soundings show that even at EAU, they should be gone after 9z. No
concerns the rest of the period with high confidence in the TAFs,
with nothing more than some passing mid/high clouds with winds
becoming increasingly southwest.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

MON...VFR. Winds SW 10 kts.
TUE...MVFR cigs in morning. Winds NW 15-20G30-35 kts.
WED...VFR. Winds SW 5-10 kts.




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