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000
FXUS63 KMPX 020417
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1117 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TONIGHT AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE EVENING RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.

SATURDAY BRINGS THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH. H85 TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +16 AND +18C ACROSS MN.
SHOULD EASILY ACHIEVE MID 80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE OVER
WEST CENTRAL MN. LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WI. THE AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME MORE SKETCHY AS FAR AS BEING ABLE TO CONFIDENTLY
FORECAST DRY WEATHER...ESPECIALLY FROM WEST CENTRAL WI INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MN...WHERE SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A POCKET OF
INSTABILITY /PER CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 1500 J/KG/. THERE ISN/T
ANY FORCING MECHANISM TO HANG OUR HATS ON...BUT INSTABILITY COULD
PROVE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE OTHER AREA TO MONITOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST CENTRAL
MN...AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
SAGS INTO MINNESOTA. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE DISPLACED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS SNEAK INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA /NEAR ALEXANDRIA/ DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CERTAINLY A HIGHER PROBABILITY AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MAIN CHG IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS TO LOWER POPS BY
MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN DUE TO THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY TREND OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MEAN UPPER AIR FLOW
FROM THE NW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THE LADDER PART OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
CONTINUE LOW END CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EC MN/WC WI DUE TO
BETTER MOISTURE POOLING AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER...AFTER
SUNDAY NIGHT THIS FRONT MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRECLUDE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HAD. THIS IS BASED ON THE
STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE NW FLOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WITH THE BEST THERMAL
BOUNDARY SW OF MPX CWA.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE EC HOLDING ONTO THE
HIGHER POPS WED. HOWEVER...AM NOT CONFIDENT ON ANY LONG DURATION
RAINFALL EVENT UNTIL THE UPPER FLOW CHGS...AND THE HIGHER PWAT
VALUES AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVES
OVER THE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO HOLD ARND NEW MEXICO/COLORADO AND
TEXAS REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER POPS AND THE FRONT FURTHER TO THE S/SW OF
MPX CWA...THICKNESS VALUES ALLOW FOR A COOLER THAN NORMAL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG WILL AGAIN BE A
POSSIBILITY AT THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS TODAY
WERE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND NONE OF THE TAF SITES SAW ANY
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FROM THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW MORNING
IS SIMILAR WITH WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG IN PRONE
AREAS. LIFR FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT I BELIEVE IT
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IF IT EXISTS AT ALL SO CONFIDENCE WASNT
THERE FOR ADDING IT TO THE TAF FOR NOW.

KMSP...VFR EXPECTED WITH FOG REMAINING IN OUTLYING AREAS AWAY
FROM THE AIRPORT GROUNDS. WE KEPT THE TAF DRY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
AS WAS THE CASE ON FRIDAY...THE AFTERNOON COULD FUEL ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AT THE AIRPORT IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS ESE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN TSRA. WINDS EAST 5-7KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF