


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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355 FXUS63 KMPX 010339 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1039 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, diminishing after sunset. - Airmass storms possible again on Wednesday, better chance for showers/storms arrives Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Aggravated cumulus over far eastern MN into the St. Croix valley have bubbled since 1pm, resulting in a few storms developing near New Richmond moving eastwards with a fair bit of lightning to speak of as well as brief heavy rain. Further airmass type storms are expected this afternoon into the evening before falling back as we lose our instability after sunset, with regional radar showing a broad area of scattered showers and weak storms throughout the northern half of Minnesota to this point. We do not anticipate any severe weather from these storms with a few cells capable of producing some small hail alongside heavy rain with limited shear to maintain storm intensity for a long duration, with the main concern being lightning for anyone doing outdoor activities. After the shortwave pushes through this evening, the broad section of the trough slides over the Great Lakes with northwesterly winds aloft and weak high pressure moving into the region. Tuesday looks to be a top 10 weather day with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the low to mid 80s alongside northwesterly winds at 5-10mph with some fair weather cumulus during the afternoon. Synoptic guidance favors a shortwave moving across the southern edge of the forecast area on Wednesday afternoon resulting in another chance for some showers and storms. NAM forecast soundings in southern MN from 18- 00z Wednesday show a sizable 100-150 cap amidst a meager 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE with poor low level shear that only becomes sizable towards the top 100mb of the troposphere. Lapse rates are decent enough where if we end up getting a couple storms to form, we could see isolated hail and some frequent lightning with other storm risks largely absent. Thursday will see the apex of the ridge slide over the northern plains with weak subsidence returning resulting in yet another beautiful day of low to mid 80s with a breeze and fair weather clouds. The July 4th holiday on Friday still appears to be the best overall environment for showers and storms this week with most of the mid to long range guidance showing a broad trough with embedded shortwaves pushing across the area by Friday evening which would result in increased cloud cover as well as showers and storms. The synoptic setup is the best we will see from a forcing perspective due to the trough and also the nose of a low level jet developing over the Dakotas by the evening, however the placement of the jet will be crucial in firing off storms in the better daytime environment before they migrate towards Minnesota and Wisconsin. Forecast soundings from 21-06z Friday afternoon into Saturday morning show a weak cap due to the incoming low level jet coupled with mediocre shear and enough instability to produce storms, however the overall environment leaves much to be desired from a severe thunderstorm perspective. The heavy rain threat appears to be higher with PWAT values in the GFS over 2 inches amidst an overall saturated troposphere. While the environment does not completely skunk chances for fireworks viewing, the increase in cloud cover as well as chances for showers will put a damper on many plans. As the shortwave trough pushes out of the area on Saturday, flow aloft returns to zonal with chances for shortwaves and more airmass type storms continuing into early next week. Our overall unsettled pattern looks to continue albeit without significant synoptic forcing. We will once again proceed with a relatively low confidence forecast much like we have been experiencing lately with the 2-3 day window as more mid range and CAM guidance comes into play crucial for resolving any thunderstorm chances moving forward into the first full week of July.&& && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Patchy fog is likely in river valleys & other low-lying areas overnight. AXN & RNH have the greatest chance of seeing minor visibility restrictions of 3-6SM early this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the period with diurnal cumulus forming by early afternoon & dissipating at sunset. Very low chances (10-20%) of a few isolated showers during the late afternoon & evening, mainly over eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.Light westerly winds overnight become slightly more westerly and increase to around 10 kts late this morning. Winds drop below 5kts after sunset and become more southwesterly to southerly overnight. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Slight chance TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Slight chance TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts. FRI...Chance aftn TSRA/MVFR, likely evening TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...ETA