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000
FXUS62 KTBW 191134
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
734 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...


.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions expected trough the period with light and variable
winds over the next few hours. Then, the sea breeze will shift
winds onshore during the late morning/early afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Low amplitude pattern across the CONUS will gradually amplify over
the next several days as a southern stream disturbance moves
quickly across the desert southwest tonight and Saturday, and the
southern plains/Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday night and Sunday
as it comes in-phase with a weak northern stream disturbance.
This will push across the southeast U.S. on Monday, and off the
mid Atlantic coast Monday night.

In the short term, high pressure will hold over the forecast area
today and Saturday with partly cloudy skies and dry, very warm
conditions. Increasing cloudiness Sunday as a cold front
associated with the U/L disturbance will move across the
Florida peninsula Sunday night and Monday with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance of rain across the
nature coast and interior. Weak high pressure will build over
west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front
Tuesday and Wednesday with drier cooler air advecting across the
forecast area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
High pressure will hold over the waters through Saturday with
winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less. A cold front
will move across the waters Sunday night and Monday with a chance
of showers/thunderstorms with the best chance for rain over the
northern waters. Winds will become north behind the front but will
remain below advisory levels as high pressure builds back over the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  68  87  70 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  88  69  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  93  65  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  88  67  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  88  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  85  71  84  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE...Delerme/Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery