Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 310306 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
906 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP/WEATHER GROUPINGS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR REST OF
TONIGHT. ALSO UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY ELIMINATING
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TO A
CERTAIN DEGREE MODELING SHOWS THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THUS LEFT THE WATCH UP THERE. MODELS SEEM TO
BE OVERDOING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DESPITE SOME
FOCUSING WAVE FEATURES. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACK OFF QPF NUMBERS
ACROSS SW/WC HIGHLANDS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WAVE POISED TO IMPACT
THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. SUSPECT THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM
WITH LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SIMILARLY FOR NW AREAS WHERE
THERE IS SOME ONGOING RAINFALL WITHIN A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AREA. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SO IT DOESNT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE A
RAIN SHOWER.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...555 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THOUGH A LATER START...SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING NOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE N OR NW ACROSS
WESTERN NM...WITH MORE N TO NE MOTION ELSEWHERE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL HELP DRIVE NEW DEVELOPMENT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN HEAVY RAIN. SHOULD STORMS
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH OVER NE NM WILL
KEEP CONVECTION GOING OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-527>537.

&&

$$

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