Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 230958
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
158 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread is limited in the short range and remains reasonable in the
mid and long range.

Tranquil fall pattern continues over northern Alaska. Aloft at 500
hpa a longwave trough over the west coast of Alaska is currently
being being anchored by a 532 dm low just north of Nunivak Island.
The upper level low will continue to move south over western
Bristol Bay while another upper level low near Kodiak Island moves
east and then north into Prince William Sound Sunday. A 500 dm
low near the pole will move south along the Dateline. A strong
shortwave rotating around the low will approach the northwest
coast of Alaska Sunday evening as a weak upper level low over
McKenzie Delta moves northeast to near Banks Island Monday
morning. An area of weak flow aloft will drift over central Alaska
through Monday morning before the strong shortwave approaching
the northwest coast on Sunday sweeps into central Alaska Monday.

On the surface a 993 mb low just southwest of Kodiak Island will
continue to move north into southern Alaska. A strong front moves
on shore late Saturday night and Sunday and into the central and
eastern interior Monday. This front will be the focal point for
scattered rain showers as front stalls over the central and
eastern interior late Sunday and Monday. A weak front moving
south out of the arctic will approach the northwest coast Sunday
bringing a chance of rain and snow back to the north slope. A
trough rotating around the low near Kodiak Island will stall over
the western interior and west coast today and will be the focal
point for scattered rain showers.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 17


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