Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 252136

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
136 PM AKDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12 surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. The
12z model suite continues to be in good agreement with previous
model run output as well a displaying minimal spread between mode
families in the short range as well as the mid range. Model spread
increases significantly by the end of the week.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a longwave trough currently over eastern and
central Alaska combined with a 500 hpa ridge currently over the
eastern Bering Sea will slowly retrograde to the west through the
upcoming week with the upper level trough moving over western
Alaska and the upper level ridge moving over the western Bering
Sea by late in the week. Weak southerly flow develops over eastern
and central Alaska by mid week and bringing warmer temperatures
to to areas that have had over three weeks of below normal
temperatures. Temperatures are expected to reach freezing by
around Wednesday or Thursday of next week for the first time in
the month of March in Fairbanks. The warmer and moist south to
southeast flow will bring the threat of light snow over the
eastern and central interior by mid week as week overunning flow
develops. Only minor snow accumulations are expected with this

Areas of dense fog continue to move in and out of locations along
the the west coast under stable high pressure and will likely
continue through tonight. Reduced visibilities in blowing snow
will continue today along the north slope but will improve late
tonight as winds diminish.




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