Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 012323
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
323 PM AKDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TUESDAY...THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO EXTEND ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EXIT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHERN ALASKA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...
A THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING ON A LINE 50 MILES EAST OF
ANIAK-50 MILES NORTH OF FAIRBANKS-50 MILES NORTH OF NORTHWAY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD TO A LINE 50 MILES NORTH OF GALENA-FORT YUKON AND
EASTWARD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 1000 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 50
MILES EAST OF NORTHWAY MONDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN TO A 1003 MB
LOW NEAR INUVIK BY TUESDAY MORNING. A RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
NORTH GULF COAST WILL BECOME A BROAD BUT WEAK 1007 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR ANCHORAGE LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL BREAK DOWN TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING RE- ESTABLISHED ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED. THIS RIDGING SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ALASKA
WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES IN DENALI AND THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.RANGE.

ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST...LIGHT MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF
FLURRIES AND FOG.

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GFS INDICATING SURFACE CAPES 100 TO 400+ J/KG AND SURFACE-500 MB
LIFTED INDEXES TO AROUND -2 IN THE PERSISTENT BAND OF INSTABILITY.
MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY 25-45 PERCENT
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...28-43 PERCENT IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT ON THE WEST COAST.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES
MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

RF MAY 16



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