Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 132143
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1243 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE. THERE IS SOME
CONFUSION ON TUESDAY IN HANDLING THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND GULF OF ALASKA...BUT THAT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY EFFECT ON
OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS AS
THEY ARE ALL OVER...SO WILL FOLLOW HPC LEAD AND LEAN ON THE ECMWF
FOR NOW. FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL USE A BLEND LEANING ON THE LATEST
NAM SOLUTION.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
A 501 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE NORTH TO BE 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN 100 NM
NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL RECEDE INTO CANADA AS A 510 DAM LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF
UNALASKA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AT 513 DAM AND A 517
DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER COOK INLET. THE TROUGH WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH
A 520 DAM LOW OVER SAND POINT EARLY MONDAY AND WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MERGES WITH A LOW THAT MOVES
OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. RIDGING WILL PUSH NORTH OVER THE
WEST COAST MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. RIDGING CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH AND EAST OVER THE ARCTIC AND WESTERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...A PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN AS THE CENTER
DRIFTS NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MERGE WITH A 987
MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC MONDAY AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. A 966 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
BERING SEA AT 958 MB...THEN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AS A WEATHER
FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA TO LIE FROM THE GULF OF
ANADYR TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TUESDAY MORNING...AND TO THE WEST
COAST TUESDAY EVENING. A 1020 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER MACKENZIE
BAY EARLY TUESDAY THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND NORTHERN PART OF THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AND VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW
IMPROVES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS...FLURRIES AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS ONSHORE...EASTERLY FLOW...CONTINUES
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LET UP A
LITTLE...BY SUNDAY MORNING MOST AREAS WILL HAVE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
LOWER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SPORT NPP VIIRS PRODUCT AT
13/1710Z SHOWS THE STRATUS IS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS AND EXTENDING EAST OVER MACKENZIE BAY AND THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST LIES FROM MEKORYUK TO KOYUK TO NOATAK WITH A BAND OF LOW
STRATUS AND FLURRIES THAT CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON THE GOES PRODUCTS
AS WELL AS THE SPORT MICROPHYSICS PRODUCTS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK HIGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT MOVES
NORTH. WINDS GENERALLY OFFSHORE 5 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
LIGHT WINDS INLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE
INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
AROUND THE AREA...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES WHERE GAP
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 50 MPH INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 16


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