Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 231441
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
641 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY COOL
AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL MOVE NE TODAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL MOVE NE TODAY.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE ALONG THE DATELINE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR TODAY AND TO NE ALASKA TONIGHT. MORE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE NORTH OF THE SIBERIAN COAST WILL MOVE TO NW
ALASKA TONIGHT AND TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO MCGRATH BY 4PM THU AND TO
ATIGUN PASS TO FAIRBANKS BY 4PM FRI. WILL MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
WITH THIS AND SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -2C ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
TO +12C IN THE SE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY
ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND WEST COAST TONIGHT AND THU...AND IN
THE INTERIOR THU NIGHT AND FRI.


SURFACE...
A WEAK THERMAL LOW IN THE SE INTERIOR ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THERE
TODAY AND THU.

A 1005 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO NEAR DEMARCATION
POINT AS A 1001 MB LOW BY 4AM THU AND THEN CONTINUE EAST. A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO
ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MINCHUMINA BY 4PM THU AND TO EAGLE TO DELTA BY
4AM THU THEN STALLING. EXPECT .25-.50 INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS
HEAVIEST ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE.

A 997 MB LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO NEAR
KIVALINA AS A 1002 MB LOW BY 4PM WED...TO ANAKTUVUK AS A 1008 MB
LOW BY 4PM THU...AND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE AS A 1010 MB LOW BY 4PM
FRI. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING S FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT...TO
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THU PM...AND OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THU
NIGHT AND FRI. EXPECT ANOTHER .25-1.00 INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS LOW
AND FRONT. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE AND
IN THE ALASKA RANGE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH JUST WEST OF THE
LOW WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE.
EXPECT 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ABOVE 3000 FT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR PATTERNS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SINCE THIS IS DYNAMIC HIGH SPEED FLOW EXPECT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING BUT THE GENERAL WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT .75-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL CAUSE ALL STREAMS AND RIVERS TO
RISE TO HIGH LEVELS. SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW EXPECT
RUN OFF TO BE OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME PERIOD THAT NO FLOODING WILL
OCCUR.

HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN DENALI PARK THU AND THU NIGHT COULD
LEAD TO SMALL STREAM ISSUES THERE THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

JB JUL 14


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