Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 011236
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
336 AM AKST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 48 HOURS...THEN THE
CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 90 HOURS ON THE MAJOR
FEATURES. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN
A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER A LOT ON WHAT
WILL HAPPEN NEXT WEEKEND AS THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN AND ARE
KEEPING IT COLD AND MAKING IT COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING THE COLD AIR OVER THE
AREA...SO WILL LEAN QUITE A BIT ON THE OTHER MODELS AS THEY SEEM
MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LOW MOVING NORTH IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. FOR TEMPERATURES WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND JUST
NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECASTS. A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH
NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION WISE IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL JUST USE A
BLEND TO COME UP WITH A CONCENSUS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE WITH 556 DAM
CENTER OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH
CENTER WILL WEAKEN TO 549 DAM AS IT MOVES OVER KING SALMON BY
MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AT 545
DAM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 561 DAM RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER
THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA. A SHORTWAVE OVER SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO
THE BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A 529 DAM CENTER
DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTON SOUND IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...THEN TO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT DISSIPATES. RIDGING FROM THE BERING SEA WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT THEN ROTATE SOUTH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY
MORNING. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SIBERIA
TODAY AND MOVE TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY MONDAY EVENING...THEN OVER
BARROW BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ZERO TO 16 BELOW
CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND.

SURFACE...1046MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING
EXTENDS WEST TO A 1034MB HIGH IN THE BERING STRAIT. THE RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL SPLIT WITH 1010MB LOW AND FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COAST...AND A WEAKER FRONT WITH A 1014MB LOW DROPPING INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION AND DISSIPATING. THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ARCTIC WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. A 1041MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SPREADING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH. AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE EASTERN COAST...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ISSUE SOME
HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR THE AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY. WARMER NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...THEN THE COOLING BEGINS IN EARNEST. WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS
GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH AND WILL SWING FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
BIG PATCH OF STRATUS WILL BE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...AND THAT WILL BRING LOW
CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES TO MOST OF THE AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS FROM THE SEWARD
PENINSULA NORTH THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO HANG OVER
THE AREA. WILL BE BOOTED OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT IF IT DOES NOT
DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT. WEAK LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE BERING STRAIT
TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE
COASTAL AND ADJACENT AREAS...BUT IT WILL IN MOST CASES NOT BE
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRIESTS INLAND WITH WINDS
ALONG THE COAST BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR
MOST AREAS. A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
UPPER YUKON FLATS AND STRETCHES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY WILL
BE A PROBLEM. WILL KEEP THE STRATUS AROUND AS IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE EXPANDING AT THIS TIME AND THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REASON FOR
IT TO DISSIPATE.

4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...COOLER THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE AS COLD AIR SINKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND THAT NOT MUCH
FAITH IN THE MODELS AS THEY CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON WHETHER IT
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL OR WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD MOVING IN TO THE
AREA.

SATELLITE...LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS FROM THE YUKON RIVER NORTH AND
WEST CAN BE SEEN ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 01/0755Z AND
IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS FROM
01/1030Z. NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE STRATUS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15



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