Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FXAK69 PAFG 301145
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
345 AM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Models...They have done very well over the past week, so will
continue to use a blend for the major features through the
upcoming forecast period. Initialization against the current
surface analysis continues to be good. Still some disagreement on
just how warm it will be over the weekend, but the solutions seem
to be coming together indicating highs around 60 on Saturday for
the Fairbanks area.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...High amplitude ridge remains the main
feature and the axis lies from Kodiak City to Anaktuvuk Pass to
wainwright, then northwest to 76N 180. 564 dam heights extend over
the arctic coast by Friday morning. The ridge will move east a bit
to lie from Prince William Sound to Fairbanks to Prudhoe Bay by
Saturday morning with a 562 dam high center over Prudhoe Bay. 564
dam heights will pull back south over the middle Tanana Valley. A
546 dam low over the Beaufort Sea this morning will move south
over the western Northwest Territories by Friday morning with a
weak trough extending west across the central Yukon Territory
into the upper Yukon Flats. A 512 dam low over Siberia persists
with a trough extending southeast across the Bering Sea to a 542
dam low near Atka that will move to St Matthew island and
dissipate early Saturday morning. Associated shortwave will be
over the southeast Bering Sea by Saturday morning and move north
to the Bering Strait by Sunday morning, then across the Chukchi
Sea as it Dissipates late Sunday. Ridging over the interior will
break down as ridging pulls back to the north and south leaving a
col over the eastern interior by Sunday afternoon. At 850
hpa...Zero Isotherm is marching north and east today and will lie
from Barrow to Yakutat this morning and be east of the AlCan by
this evening. Above zero celsius temperatures over the whole
forecast area with temperatures up to 12 celsius moving over parts
of the southern interior Saturday. A slow cooling trend starts
Sunday.

Surface...Ridge over the eastern interior and the Yukon Territory
with 1033 mb center over the upper Tanana Valley. Leeside
troughing will develop north of the Alaska and Brooks ranges later
today. A 985 mb low just south of Atka this morning will move
north into the Bering Sea by this afternoon, and to the Pribilof
Islands by by Saturday morning. The low moves northwest into the
Gulf of Anadyr at 988 mb Saturday afternoon with a weather front
extending southeast across western Bristol Bay. The front will
move north up the coast as it weakens spreading rain or showers
south of Point Hope through Sunday, another weak weather front
will move to the eastern Bering Sea late Sunday. Gap flow winds
will pick up through the ranges on Saturday with gusts to around
45 mph in the Alaska Range.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Decaying weather front moving
across the eastern arctic today will produce some rain showers
east of Barrow. A second front will move over the northwest coast
and into the arctic this evening. West winds will turn offshore
this morning ushering the marine stratus offshore through at
least Saturday. Winds will be 10 to 20 mph through Friday then
diminish a bit to 5 to 15 mph Saturday. Temperatures will be on
the rise as the surface high builds north with highs on the coast
reaching into the 40s and inland areas in the 50s. Low will still
fall to around freezing at night with the clearing skies.

West Coast and Western Interior...Going to be a blustery, showery
weekend on the west coast. Rainfall amounts in the Norton Sound
Region and lower Yukon Delta will be around 0.50 inch through
Sunday, while rainfall amounts on St lawrence Island will be up
to 1.50 inches. On the bright side it will be slightly warmer than
normal for the first weekend in October. Southeast to south winds
will gust to 40 to 50 mph at times through the weekend with the
strongest winds around the outer Capes and Bering Strait.

Central and Eastern Interior...Generally mostly clear, warmer than
normal for the first weekend in October, and generally light winds
through Saturday. Some increased clouds Sunday with a slight
chance of showers early Monday. As the leeside troughing
strengthens Friday night gap flow winds will kick in with gusts to
45 mph Saturday near Alaska Range passes.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4....None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No issues at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 16



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.