Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 302342
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
342 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE NORTHWEST (OR WEST) FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
ALL BUT OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES WILL SPREAD OVER THEM AS WELL
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN WILL BRING IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WHICH WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THOSE DISTURBANCES WILL BE POORLY
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEALING WITH ONE OF THEM.

A 1008 MB LOW JUST WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST...PASSING NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE TONIGHT... TO
CENTER BETWEEN BARROW AND PRUDHOE BAY AT 4 PM WEDNESDAY AT
AROUND 1012 MB. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA
TO BE ABOUT 150 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT AT 4AM THURSDAY.
THIS LITTLE LOW WILL BRING MOST OF OUR ARCTIC MARINE AREAS UP
TO 25 KT AT SOME POINT...THOUGH TYPICALLY JUST FOR 6 TO 12
HOURS.

THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR...AND THERE
WILL BE DIURNAL VARIATIONS IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

EXPECT SNOW ALONE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN ZONES 205 AND 206.
UP TO 2 INCHES AGAIN TONIGHT IN ZONE 206. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
GIVE ANOTHER INCH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN AROUND THAT MUCH LIKELY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

DJH SEP 14



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