Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 022349
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE TIGHT GRADIENT OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
LYNN AND CROSS SOUND THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK SOUTHERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUS,
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE
HYDER AREA, BUT THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THEREAFTER.

CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. GAVE
CONSIDERATION TO ADDING PATCHY FOG IN TONIGHT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BUT OPTED AGAINST IT AS FELT ENOUGH DRYING OCCURRED
LEADING TO LITTLE FOG THREAT.

ONE MORE SUNNY DAY ON TAP FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO REACH THE
YAKUTAT AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY WITH 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT AND HIGHS REACHING AROUND 60
DEGREES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
EXPECT SUBSTANTIALLY LESS WIND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ENTIRE PANHANDLE.

USED THE 12Z NAM ALONG WITH 06Z HIRES ARW FOR UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANGES WERE MINIMAL AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCAL EFFECT EDITS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL WET PATTERN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
BERING SEA EMERGES INTO THE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 12Z EC
TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM IN REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW...HOLDING ON TO MORE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHILE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS RESULTS IN A
MORE CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NE GULF ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT INDICATED
BY LAST NIGHTS EC/GEM. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH QUICKLY
INLAND ON SATURDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY.

EXPECT SE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND. ADJUSTED WINDS UPWARD IN THE FAVORED EAST/WEST
CHANNELS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO
INCREASED THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AS THE NAM AND EC ARE INDICATING AROUND 35 KTS AT 925MB
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN THESE
AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME...PARTICULARLY WITH THE HANDLING OF HEAT AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...PARTICULARLY WITH HOW THEY INTERACT WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
OVERALL...WENT WITH WPC FOR THIS TIME FRAME BUT INCREASED POP DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SYSTEM WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031.

&&

$$

TPS/LEVIN

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