Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXAK67 PAJK 020017
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
417 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
MOVE TO NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER THURSDAY AND THEN INLAND BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE GULF AND COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECT TO
RISE UP TO LOW GALE FORCE IN SOME AREAS WHICH IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN IS TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER SEASON IN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. THE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ARE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE MARINE
AND LAND AREA OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. A
REBOUND SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SEND A BURST
OF WIND NORTH THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. OVER THE NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AREA GUSTS OF 40 MPH MAY BE FOUND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
SO HAVE ISSUED A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR THE SKAGWAY AREA.

.LONG TERM...THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WARM
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS FROM SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LEFT OVER FROM THE
STRONG UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO OVERALL THERE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE SURFACE LOW MENTIONED IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE. THE
LOW WILL MOVING OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AND REDEVELOP IN BC OVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
WILL KEEP WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS 20 TO
35 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OVER SOUTH TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA BUT 15 TO
20 KT OVER LYNN CANAL. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ALL WINDS EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN LYNN WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.
OVER LAND...STRONG WINDS GUSTS WILL PERSIST NEAR SKAGWAY AND
BREEZING CONDITIONS NEAR HAINES. THOSE STRONGER GUSTS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH
THEM STICKING AROUND NEAR THE JUNEAU AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE GULF TO INCREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW
AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF BUT WILL SHEER APART WITH MID LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND JUST BRING IN SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL AGAIN REBUILD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO
INCREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

SUNNY SKIES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO THERE
IS SOME VERY WARM AIR THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM +12 TO +19 MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WITH A FORECASTED
INVERTED TROUGH BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD PRODUCE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LAKE NO LAKE WAS OBSERVED BY PILOTS AS RELEASING
WATER UNDER THE TALSEQUAH GLACIER ON WEDNESDAY. RIVER LEVELS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE QUICKLY AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ON TAKU
RIVER AS THE RELEASED WATER RAISES THE WATER LEVEL. AT 2 PM THE
TAKU RIVER WAS AT 38.3 FEET AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 42.8 FEET
10 AM THURSDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE FOR THE TAKU RIVER IS 43.0
FEET WITH BANKFULL LEVEL CONDITIONS 42.0 FEET. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT WILL RELEASED INTO
THE TAKU RIVER SO THE CREST HEIGHT AND TIMING MAY DIFFER FROM THE
FORECAST.

INCREASE FLOW ON THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOATING
DEBRIS OF TREES AND ICE CHUCKS FLOWING DOWN THE TAKU RIVER. COLDER
THAN NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF
HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE FALLING IN TO THE WATER. PERSONS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WHILE RECREATING ON THE TAKU
RIVER THROUGH THE EVENT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031>035-041-042-052.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.