Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
FXAK67 PAJK 052328
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
328 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF HAS MORE THAN 2 TIMES THE
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH THE FEATURE THAT IS MOVING AN INCH
OR SO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND ROUGHLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION. GUSTY GALE FORCE WIND IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST WATERS IS EXPECTED...AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH ALONG THE EXPOSED WESTERN CAPES OF BARANOF ISLAND.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HEAVY AS NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS
SHOULD BRING MOST OF THEM UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 TO 30 KT
DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

THE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE BASED UPON NAM AND HIRES
SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH PRECIP
CHANGING TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NW TO SE. UPPER LOW
PUSHING THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO FILL OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
AND SLOWLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH SUN MORNING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH SAT
NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE E GULF OF AK HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH HOW FAR E INTO THE GULF A FRONT WILL
PUSH EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO SCHC TO LOW END CHC OVER
GULF COAST AND NRN PANHANDLE MON INTO TUE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
MODEL DIFFERENCES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE QUICKLY INLAND WITH
RIDGING REBUILDING OVER THE REGION. CONFIDENCE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE IN DRY AND WARM WX THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED DRY WX. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY SO KEPT FORECAST CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THE
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS TO START LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND THEN MIGRATING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE / YAKUTAT GUSTAVUS SITKA AND JUNEAU /
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. LOCAL AREAS OF IFR FROM CEILINGS MAY BE
FOUND FOR THOSE IN THE AREAS AS WELL. A STRONG LOWER LEVEL WIND
BAND 2 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET WITH THE FRONT BAND WILL SPREAD INTO
THE COASTAL AREAS WELL SO THE SAME SITES MAY ENCOUNTER SOME LLWS
OR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE NEAR THE TERRAIN RIDGES OR DOWN STREAMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. RAIN FALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED AND GENERALLY WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON
THE STREAMS AND RIVERS. THESE COULD APPROACH BANKFULL LEVELS SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-041-042.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

$$

BEZENEK/BC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.