Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 251129

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
258 AM AKDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...Benign weather pattern continues for the panhandle
through the short term period. Early morning water vapor imagery
shows a weak mid-upper level system spinning across the northern
gulf. This system will track SE`ward today along the gulf coast as
ridging both aloft and at the surface begins to build over the
central and western gulf. In terms of sensible weather, this means
the continuation of generally mostly cloudy skies with light
shower coverage at isolated to scattered at best through early
Tuesday. Kept scattered coverage going through the entire day over
the southern panhandle with the cold core low passing overhead
which combined with some surface heating could squeeze out a few
showers this afternoon. Cloud cover should diminish tonight in
the wake of the departing upper system with the boundary layer
flow turning to a more NW`ly component.

Models were all in good agreement. Very few changes were made to
the previous forecast. Forecast confidence is high.

.LONG TERM...Little change to previous forecast as summerlike
pattern continues with weak synoptic features impacting weather
over the panhandle. Most notable feature will be a trough dropping
south over the panhandle this weekend which will act to turn flow
offshore over the much of the area. Weak impulses embedded in the
easterly flow will generate shower activity over the southern
panhandle. However, as has been the case the past several days
amounts will be light. All in all, it is looking like a good
holiday weekend weatherwise especially across the northern
panhandle. Temperatures will climb well into the 60s with some
locations likely reaching 70 degrees especially on Saturday as
northeasterly flow leads to downslope warming. Latest long range
guidance indicates shower activity may wane over the southern
panhandle early next week with a dry period of weather potentially
on tap panhandle-wide through mid week. Models all in good
agreement through the weekend.


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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