Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 050731
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
231 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A BUILDING MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST AND BY THE WEEKEND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES ON ITS NORTHWEST PERIPHERY WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. THE PATTERN SEEN SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER OF TERRAIN
INDUCED CONVECTION JUST TO OUR WEST DRIFTING EAST AUGMENTED BY WEAK
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW AND PEAKING WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL RE-
EMERGE BY FRIDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING.
FROM THEN ONWARD EACH EVENING THROUGH MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS NOT PERFORMED PARTICULARLY WELL IN
THE WARMEST PERIODS OF THIS SUMMER GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
CONDITIONS. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTHEAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE MAY FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA REDUCING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                95  71  98  72  98 /   0   5   5   5   0
BEAVER OK                  97  71 101  73 101 /   5   0   0  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              93  68  98  69  96 /   5   0   5  10  10
BORGER TX                  96  73 101  74  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              96  70 102  71 100 /   0   0   0   5   0
CANYON TX                  96  71  99  73  99 /   0   5   5   5   0
CLARENDON TX               97  73 100  75 101 /   0   5   5   5   0
DALHART TX                 93  68  99  69  98 /   0   0   0  10   0
GUYMON OK                  95  70  99  71  99 /   5   5   5  10   5
HEREFORD TX                96  69  99  71  98 /   0   5   5   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                97  71 100  74 100 /   5   5   0  10   0
PAMPA TX                   95  71  98  73  98 /   0   5   5   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                98  73 100  76 101 /   5   5   0   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              98  74 102  77 103 /   0   5   0   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17



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