Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 310756
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
256 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR CIMARRON COUNTY
AND A FROST ADVISORY AROUND IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLIER. WILL GO AHEAD
AND CONTINUE IT AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN
THESE AREAS NOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL SOME MORE.

ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SOME PLACES IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PANHANDLES MAY GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO ABOVE 10 MPH
BEFORE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SET IN. SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY NOW.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MODELS AGREE THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THIS LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE FOUND. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN ABOUT 3 PIECES
AND THEY GENERALLY AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND ENDING OF
THE RAIN FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER THEY DISAGREE ON WHERE AN UPPER LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN MEXICO FOR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER EAST
AND WEAKER. AT ANY RATE...IF THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS PAN OUT...THEN
THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WHEN THIS
UPPER LOW KICKS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                60  37  63  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
BEAVER OK                  55  34  62  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              57  40  65  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  60  39  65  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              62  39  66  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   5
CANYON TX                  61  38  63  45  70 /   0   0   0   0   5
CLARENDON TX               61  34  61  43  68 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 60  39  65  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                  57  37  66  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                62  37  63  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                56  35  59  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   58  35  60  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                60  34  59  43  68 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              62  35  61  44  68 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY...MOORE...SHERMAN.

OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TEXAS.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

18/15




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