Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 031111
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
611 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 16Z TO 20Z
TODAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
08Z TO 10Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH DEEPENING UPPER LOWS OVER THE WEST AND
EAST COASTS. THIS KEEPS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT ALSO HELPS TO KEEP A PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. AS A
RESULT...DRY AND WARM SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND THE THERMAL RIDGE
WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR THE PANHANDLES.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS
CURRENTLY SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF HURRICANE
BLANCA. BY MONDAY THE WEST COAST TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND
HURRICANE BLANCA BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THE EXTRA
MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASED RAINFALL OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THIS COULD
SPILL INTO THE PANHANDLES...WITH BEST CHANCES CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A COLD FRONT EDGING IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THIS
COMPLICATED PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CHANGES WILL BE VERY
LIKELY FOR THE LATER PERIODS OF THIS FORECAST.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06




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