Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 080326
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1025 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO
THIS EVENING. A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOW ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
DRY BUT BITTERLY COLD WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

1025 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST UNTIL WE THOROUGHLY
REVIEW THE ENTIRE 00Z SUITE OF MODEL DATA ALONG WITH THE LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.  IMPRESSIVE STORM WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP
EAST OF THE CAROLINAS.  SNOW REACHES THE SOUTH COAST BETWEEN 2 AND
4AM...PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON LINE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM...THEN INTO THE
BOSTON/WORCESTER METRO AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM.  PORTIONS OF THE
CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST MAY BEGIN BRIEFLY AS
RAIN...BUT WILL QUICKLY FLIP TO SNOW BY 6 AM OR SO.

THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST DOES THE HEAVY SNOW
SHIELD REACH GIVEN THE POWERFUL STORM TRACKING SO FAR SOUTHEAST OF
THE BENCHMARK. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED...STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET WELL NORTH OF THE STORM WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO REACH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT
FROM THIS TRACK.  THERE ALSO WILL LIKELY BE OCEAN ENHANCEMENT FROM
COLD LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING...AS WELL AS THE LAND/SEA
AND COASTAL FRONT WHICH WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH. FINALLY...MAY ALSO BE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WORCESTER
HILLS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THE
COIN...CONVECTION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SOMETIMES CAUSES ISSUES
WITH THE MODEL QPF FIELDS AND LIMIT NORTHWEST EXTENT OF HEAVY SNOW.
MID LEVEL CENTERS SO FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MAY ALSO BE A
LIMITATION...SINCE WE MAY HAVE TO RELY ON LOW LEVEL/MESOSCALE FORCES
FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. OVERALL...HEAVIEST SNOW FALL WILL BE ALONG
THE COAST PARTICULARLY FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT THERE
MAY BE OTHER BANDED AREAS FOR MESOSCALE REASONS.  A MUCH BROADER
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE INTERIOR.

OVERALL...IF ANYTHING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A TAD HIGH BASED ON
SOME OF THE LATEST DATA BUT WILL HOLD THE FORECAST UNTIL REVIEWING
THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE.

REGARDLESS OF SNOW AMOUNTS...THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** BLIZZARD WARNING PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***
*** STRONG WINDS/HEAVY WET SNOW/POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES SOUTHEAST
 MASSACHUSETTS ***
*** HEAVY SNOW LIKELY ALL OF EASTERN MA/RI AND NORTHEAST CT ***
*** SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY SOUTH OF BOSTON ***

12Z MODELS...

12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE ECMWF/UKMET AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED UPWARD IN
QPF/SNOWFALL. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SAME TREND IN THE 12Z RGEM
GIVES US HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY ROBUST 12Z NAM WHICH IS
PICKING UP ON THE OCEAN EFFECT AND LAND/SEA ENHANCEMENT OVER
PLYMOUTH COUNTY INTO THE UPPER CAPE. THUS THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE HEAVILY BASED ON THE 12Z NAM. FURTHERMORE THE NAM
HIGHEST SKILL IS WITHIN THE FIRST 36 HRS. THUS WE ARE IN THE NAM
WHEELHOUSE.

OVERVIEW ...

IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING PRES FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 7MB IN THE PAST 3 HRS OFF
THE VA COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING TAPPED FROM THE BAHAMAS AND
ADVANCING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
TRACKS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 18Z MON WHICH
TYPICALLY MEANS TOO FAR OUT TO SEA FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE IS VERY INTENSE WITH SURFACE PRES LOWERING TO
ABOUT 975 MB 18Z MON AND WITH A VERY LARGE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT OVERSPREADS RI AND EASTERN MA. THUS HEAVY SNOW WILL TRACK
MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN WHAT THIS TYPICAL TRACK OFFERS. IN FACT A
MODEL BLEND GIVES STORM TOTAL QPF OF UP TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS
EASTERN CT INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS TO NORTHEAST MA/NH BORDER.

ONSET ...

SNOW OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 08Z/3AM AND 11Z/6AM
WITH MAIN SHIELD APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST FROM THE OCEAN.
HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHTER UPSLOPE SNOWS DURING THIS TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WORCESTER HILLS NORTHWARD TO THE
MA/NH BORDER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT
QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TOWARD 12Z/7AM.

SNOW INTENSITY ...

HEAVIEST SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-2" WILL OCCUR 12Z-20Z.
TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED DURING THIS TIME. IT WILL CONTINUE
SNOWING AFTER 20Z/3PM BUT AT A MUCH LESSER INTENSITY. HEAVY SNOW
MAY LINGER UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY. SNOW
GROWTH LOOKS GOOD ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA 09Z-17ZISH. THIS
ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL RATES AND LOWER VSBY. IN ADDITION A SHARP
COASTAL FRONT WILL SETUP VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR ON THE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG AND TO THE EAST WHILE
DIMINISHING SNOWFALL WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE CT RVR
VLY. FURTHERMORE THIS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN OCEAN
EFFECT SNOWS TO DEVELOP AND ENHANCE OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES FIRST
ACROSS CAPE ANN AND SLIPPING SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD. OVERALL THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED AND ALSO THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE ESPECIALLY TRAVEL ACROSS RT-3 IN PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
ACROSS CAPE COD.

STRONG WINDS/WET SNOW/POWER OUTAGES ...

INITIALLY BLYR LAYER AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY WET
SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH TREES ALREADY STRESSED ACROSS
THIS REGION FROM FRIDAY/S SNOWSTORM THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
RISK FOR DOWN TREE LIMBS AND ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES. ADDING TO
THIS THREAT WILL BE VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 TO 60 MPH FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. EVEN A LOW RISK OF A FEW LOCATIONS HERE POSSIBLY GUSTING
UP TO 70 MPH!

HAZARDS/HEADLINES ...

GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING WE WILL UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR ALL OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LOW RISK OF UP
TO 18" ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND UPPER CAPE COD. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL REDUCE VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES MONDAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN MA TO NH BORDER...ALL OF RI AND NORTHEAST EASTERN CT FOR
5-8 INCHES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
CT ...WESTERN-CENTRAL MA FOR 2-5 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT...

OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL
DRAW UPON THE LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
HILLS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE COD WHERE
THE EXPOSURE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW IS STRONGEST. SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS FARTHER AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...WHICH HANGS IN ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTER THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WRAPPED IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVES
OFFSHORE MONDAY...WILL SEE TWO MORE SHORT WAVES ROTATING NEAR OR S
OF THE REGION AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF NY STATE INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
SURFACE REFLECTIONS CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SO SHOULD SEE ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE FINAL
SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS DURING THU. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING VERY COLD BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE THE GENERAL UPPER PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...DETAILS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC MAINLY FROM LATE TUESDAY
ONWARD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN SIGNALING THE ARCTIC
INTRUSION FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS ALONG WITH LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TRENDED TO AN ENSEMBLE BLEND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
WIND IN PLACE...SNOW DOES NOT COMPLETELY SHUT OFF DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. NOTING SECOND SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW STARTING TO
APPROACH S COAST LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. STILL SEE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT A VERY STRONG LOW SO WILL SEE GENERALLY
STEADY -SN WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE CARRIED LOW LIKELY
POPS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT ALONG S COAST AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPS ON
TUE WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LAST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WORKS INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO WEAK AND DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE. THIS WILL JUST KEEP THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN PLACE
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL FINALLY START TAPERING OFF FROM
W-E DURING THU. NOTING HIGH TEMPS LOWER EACH DAY. BY THU...THEY
WILL ONLY BE IN MID 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE
SHORE. NW WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS NW UPPER FLOW TAKES OVER DURING
FRIDAY...EXPECT NEXT ARCTIC FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS. VERY DRY FLOW
ALOFT...SO ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS TO MOVE THROUGH. MAY ALSO
SEE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
NW WINDS WILL KICK IN BY FRI NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT
MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ISOLD TO SCT SHOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
ARCTIC AIR MOVING ACROSS...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER CAPE.

TEMPS NOSEDIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS SE
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. BY SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
TEENS...UP TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. WE MAY SEE
OUR FIRST BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPS WELL INLAND NEXT SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...


THRU MIDNIGHT ...

VFR/DRY WITH LGT/VRB WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT ...

CIGS LOWERING QUICKLY INTO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE REGION 08Z-12Z. VSBYS MAINLY VFR/MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW BUT QUICKLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR TOWARD 12Z SOUTH
COAST OF MA.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY ...

HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS RI AND ALL OF EASTERN MA WITH IFR/LIFR
12Z-18Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING TO 21Z-24Z SOUTHEAST MA. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2" WILL BE COMMON 12Z-18Z OVER RI AND EASTERN MA...LESS
INTO CT-WESTERN/CENTRAL MA. VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST WITH STRONGEST OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 KT LIKELY WITH LOW PROB UP 65
KT! SNOWFALL TOTALS THRU 00Z TUE ...

KFMH ... 10-16 INCHES
KBOS ... 6 TO 10 INCHES
KPVD ... 8 TO 12 INCHES
KBDL ... 2 TO 5 INCHES
KORH ... 4 TO 7 INCHES

KBOS TERMINAL ... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HEAVY SNOW
THREAT 12Z-18Z WITH VSBY 1/4 OR LESS AT TIMES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOULD REMAIN EAST ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL LIFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT DURING TUESDAY AS SNOW TAPERS BUT DOES NOT COMPLETELY
END. SHOULD SEE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TUE-TUE NIGHT.
N-NE WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST EARLY MON
NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING 20-25 KT LATE MON NIGHT-TUESDAY. WINDS
BACK TO LIGHT N-NW TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY
DUE TO TIMING OF LAST WEAK LOW PASSAGE. WILL SEE SCT -SHSN MOST
OF THE TIME...THOUGH MAY BRIEFLY MIX OR CHANGE TO -SHRA ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AROUND MIDDAY WED. MAY ALSO SEE A
BRIEF MIX WED NIGHT AS PRECIP LIGHTENS UP ON THE OUTER CAPE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF -SHSN OVER OUTER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS THU INTO THU NIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE FROM W-NW THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TODAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE RI AND
SOUTHERN MA WATERS...AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN MA WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS. VSBY LOWERING IN SNOW LATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SEAS
WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW PRES WELL OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST COMBINING WITH A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC.

MONDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KTS OVER ALL COASTAL
WATERS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MILE IN SNOW.
LOCALLY NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR WIND GUSTS OF LESS THAN 30 KTS.
VERY ROUGH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14-18 FEET OFF THE MA COAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT WILL GUST
UP TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH...UP TO 9-14 FT EARLY
TUE...SLOWLY SUBSIDING AS WINDS BACK TO N WED THEN W-NW WED NIGHT.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...W-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-35 KT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS LATE THU/THU NIGHT AFTER ARCTIC FRONT
PASSES. SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS THU WITH LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS. CHANCE OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
4 PM UPDATE ...

HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING
AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS
DROP OFF FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL
FLOODING LIKELY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST
CONCERN IS THE LATE MONDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1
PM IS THE TIMELINE.

EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 2 FT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
WITH 1-1.5 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS WAS
HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH WITH LOW RISK OF 70 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. THUS FOLLOWED THE MORE BULLISH ETSS SURGE. IN ADDITION
LARGE WAVES OF 10-20 FT JUST OFFSHORE ON TOP OF THESE HIGH WATER
LEVELS WILL PROMOTE WAVES TO RUNUP THE SHORELINE AND UP AND OVER
SEAWALLS AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL
MODERATE BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS MONDAY 9 AM TO 1 PM
ALONG PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS
IMPACTS BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.

COULD HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE MON EVENING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

RHODE ISLAND COASTLINE ...

GIVEN THIS OCEAN STORM IS DEVELOPING SO FAR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SE SWELLS AND PUSH OF WATER THAT MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE MON EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ002-003.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>017-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-233>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF


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