Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 250854
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS.
DRY...COOL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.  A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY ***

TODAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY PROVIDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST BLYR MIXING EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL
ARE AROUND +10C. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL EVEN
MILDER GIVEN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WILL SUPPORT
WARM READINGS ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
TEMPS MAY FALL BACK A FEW DEGS HERE LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...

IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS
FEATURE HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY
ONLY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS FROM 00Z/8PM TO 06Z/2AM ACROSS NORTHERN MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE /06Z/ WNW WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

SUNDAY...

ABOUT 10 DEGS OR SO COLDER THAN SAT ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST
WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMES THRU THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION 925MB-700MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7C/KM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
SHOULD YIELD A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH CLOUD COVER TO YIELD
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. IN ADDITION GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COOL MON
* REMAINING DRY BUT MILDER ON TUE
* UNSEASONABLY MILD WED WITH SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE
* PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING
* TURNING MUCH COOLER BY NEXT THU AND FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.  WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE AND
IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL BETWEEN 40 AND 45 IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...BUT ENOUGH WIND WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM REALLY BOTTOMING
OUT.

MONDAY...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPS CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH
INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MIXING THAT WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN
DECOUPLING WINDS AND A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS
TO FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

TUESDAY...

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE ALLOWING A
RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.  WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY...

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSEASONABLY MILD
DAY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE LIKELY TOO COOL BASED ON PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND SUPPORT FROM ECMWF/GGEM 2 METER TEMPERATURES.  850
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY TRIGGER A BRIEF BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING.  MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO EXPECT ANY RAIN TO BE
OF A SHORT DURATION IN A GIVEN LOCATION WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU INTO FRI BUT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.  A SECONDARY FRONT WILL
PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST
WEATHER SO FAR THIS SEASON TO START THE NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRI OR
FRI NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...BACK EDGE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN MA AND RI
AT 06Z/2AM...AND CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST. THESE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
EXIT THE CAPE AROUND 14Z-15Z. THEREAFTER VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT
TO MODEST W WIND BECOMING SW TOWARD 21Z-00Z.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START BUT THEN QUICKLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH
00Z-06Z. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING BUT LOTS OF POST
FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE BKN035-045 CATEGORY. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THRU SUNDAY.

TODAY...

MODEST NW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WESTERLY AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN
SW TOWARD SUNSET. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TODAY. NE SWELLS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS 03Z-06Z WITH WNW WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHERN
MA WATERS.

SUNDAY...

WNW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 20-30KT. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS IN THE COOL
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF
NEAR 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER-WATERS.
REGARDLESS...SCA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL WATERS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS.  MARGINAL SOUTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP BY WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ230-231-236-250-251-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/FRANK
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...NOCERA/FRANK
MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK



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