Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBOX 011125
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING TWO BURSTS OF
RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
THE SECOND ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN STILL BACK ACROSS EASTERN NY AND ADVANCING
EAST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BELOW 850 MB WILL DELAY ONSET OF
RAIN AS IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR LOW LEVELS TO
MOISTEN...ESPECIALLY E NEW ENG. EXPECT RAIN TO REACH CT VALLEY
LATER THIS MORNING TO MIDDAY BUT NOT UNTIL LATE TODAY ACROSS E MA
WHERE MOST OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S IN E NEW ENG WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING SUN BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN W NEW ENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS THAT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
DURING THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN.  LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING
THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN LIKELY TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING FROM
  MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
VERY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH STRONG OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL US FROM MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST WITH
AMPLIFYING TROF OVER THE GT LAKES LEADING TO A SECOND CUT OFF
DROPPING SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENG.
STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A
STALLED PATTERN WITH CUTOFF PERSISTING ALONG THE E COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS FROM TO TIME FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXACT
DETAILS AND TIMING OF WET WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.

DAILIES...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
INITIAL LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE REGION MON EVENING WITH A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT...BUT MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TRACKING S OF NEW ENG
TUE. DEEP MOISTURE AND OMEGA MOVING BACK INTO NEW ENG FROM THE SOUTH
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY
AS ALL MODELS BRING RAIN TO SNE WITH QPF AVERAGING 0.10-0.25" WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 0.50". TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TUE.

WEDNESDAY...
CUT OFF LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GT LAKES WITH RATHER ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING SNE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SFC WAVE MOVING UP THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO SNE. TIMING
UNCERTAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS TEMP FORECAST WHICH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. IF THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN E NEW
ENG...BUT LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN W NEW ENG.
RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 14-16Z BUT NOT REACHING E COASTAL
MA UNTIL AROUND 21Z. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...LINGERING INTO MON WITH CHANCE OF RAIN
AT TIMES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONTINUING
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS.  WINDS...SEAS...AND CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS INCREASE
TO 5 FT TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BELOW SCA. WEST WINDS
MON NIGHT BECOMING NE TUE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF RAIN LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN NE WINDS...MAINLY BELOW SCA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THU...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION
OF LOW PRES. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.