Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 281203
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
603 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...The latest observed BRO sounding indicated south-
Southeast winds of 44 knots at 3500 feet. Low cloud decks with
some light fog/haze prevail across Deep South Texas this morning.
A mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue through mid to late
morning before winds increase with VFR conditions developing by
18z. Gusty south to southeast winds later this morning will become
breezy this afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return later this
evening and overnight with IFR ceilings possible after 06z. South-
southeast winds above 10 knots should keep widespread fog from
forming tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Well above normal temperatures
and rain-free conditions will prevail across the area for today and
tonight. Morning low clouds will lift and mix out by mid morning as
winds increase. Weak low pressure near the Sierra Madre this
afternoon will keep winds fairly light across the far west with
gusty winds near the coast today. Today will be hot with high
temperatures in the 90s away from the beaches, some triple digits
are possible along the river across the upper Valley under mostly
sunny skies. Mostly cloudy skies return tonight with low
temperatures falling into the lower 70s across much of the area. A
cold front will approach and move through Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley on Wednesday. Above normal temperatures will
continue into Wednesday before the cooler air arrives. High
temperatures Wednesday should reach in the mid to upper 80s. A
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Wednesday along and ahead of the front.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): The most significant
change to the long term portion of the forecast is a reduction in
precipitation chances, especially for the late week through weekend
time frame, as model guidance no longer shows the formation of an
area of low pressure over the coastal waters of Tamaulipas and the
northward progression of this system over Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley. Instead, isolated showers are now anticipated
Saturday through Monday as a 500 mb trough off the west coast of
the Baja Peninsula moves northeast across Mexico and over the
Lone Star State. The passage of the cold front mentioned above in
the short term forecast discussion will produce near normal
daytime high and overnight low temperatures initially that will
warm as the long term forecast period progresses.

MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Buoy 42020 reported south winds
around 14 knots with gusts near 18 knots and seas of 4.6 feet with a
period of 7 seconds at 03 CST/09 UTC. Moderate south to southeast
winds will continue today and tonight as high pressure across the
eastern Gulf interacts with the next approaching cold front. Daytime
heating near shore will support gustier winds on the Laguna Madre
today. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed this afternoon for winds
approaching 20 knots. Winds will increase tonight with Exercise
Caution conditions possible on the Gulf waters tonight. Marine
conditions will improve briefly Wednesday ahead of a cold front
arriving in the late afternoon. Moderate seas expected through the
forecast period.

Wednesday Night through Monday: Small Craft Advisory winds and/or
seas will prevail through the entire forecast period due to the
passage of a cold front followed by a tight pressure gradient over
the entire Gulf of Mexico with rough swells approaching the Lower
Texas Coast from the east.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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