Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 311537
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
937 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
DRY ZONAL FLOW TODAY SHOULD PRODUCE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TODAY WITH A COOLER START AND THE VERY
WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THIS ZONAL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A RETURN TO SOME SMOKE BRIEFLY TODAY. THE FLOW BACKS
TONIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SMOKE TO LESSEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GOING FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AND DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO IT. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

QUIET WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS EXITED
INTO THE DAKOTAS. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAINLY ACROSS CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTIES...AND THESE TOO
HAVE MOVED INTO THE DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING
MUCH DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA REMAIN CLOUDY BUT THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY BUT AN 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. SKIES AGAIN WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. HOWEVER...AREAS OF SMOKE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT THE AMOUNT OF SMOKE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS LEESIDE
TROUGHING WITH TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY
HEIGHT FALLS OVER WESTERN MONTANA SHIFT THE SURFACE TROUGH
EASTWARD AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES COOLER AS SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO IMPACT
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND ARE COOLER AND UNSETTLED...BUT HOW COOL AND
UNSETTLED DEPEND ON MODEL SOLUTION. GFS IS MORE OPEN WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. EC CUTS
THIS SYSTEM OFF INTO A DEEPER LOW AND MOVES IT MUCH MORE SLOWLY
CREATING A BETTER CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. CANADIAN AND
UKMET SUPPORT SLOWER TIMING THAN THE GFS OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE BUT
THEY ARE NOT AS DEEP AS THE ECMWF. COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
GIVEN LABOR DAY RECREATION SO WILL GIVE MODELS ONE MORE DAY TO
RESOLVE DIFFERENCES AND THEN RAMP UP MESSAGING TOMORROW NIGHT IF
WARRANTED. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL RESIDE OVER AREA
TERMINALS. GUSTY WEST WINDS...AROUND 20 KNOTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN MONTANA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 16-22Z. WINDS
CALM TO 5-10 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 02Z.
DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 082 055/089 060/090 055/074 048/069 049/068 045/066
    0/K 00/U    00/B    12/T    22/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 083 046/090 052/086 047/072 041/069 040/069 038/069
    0/K 00/K    10/N    13/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 083 053/092 057/095 054/079 050/074 050/072 045/068
    0/U 00/U    10/B    01/B    22/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 081 055/092 060/097 058/081 053/077 051/071 047/067
    0/K 00/U    00/B    01/B    12/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 080 055/092 059/097 058/082 054/078 053/073 048/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 078 053/090 056/097 058/083 053/080 051/072 047/066
    0/K 00/U    00/B    01/B    12/T    23/T    32/T
SHR 081 047/091 053/093 052/082 048/076 046/073 042/065
    0/U 00/U    10/U    01/B    11/B    23/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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