Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 071656
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
956 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

.UPDATE...

Winds will continue to be 10 to 15 mph overnight across Carter and
Fallon Counties. Because of this, coupled with winds chills in
the range of -20 to -30, the wind chill advisory has been extended
for those two counties. The rest of the advisories have been
cancelled as winds will not reach criteria. Have updated the
temperatures based on observations and the latest short term
guidance. No major changes, just a few adjustments. Reimer

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu...

Breezy conditions will continue through the late morning and early
afternoon today over the eastern Plains and Judith Gap. Expect
wind chills to hover between -20 F and -30 F. On and off flurries
will stick around through morning in the Billings area with light
easterly flow aiding some upslope, no accumulations expected.
Temps should remain in the single digits as the coldest portion of
the arctic airmass remains entrenched over eastern Montana today.
850 mb temps begin to warm just slightly over the west as the
ridge axis moves eastward on Thursday morning. Cloud cover will be
on the decrease Wednesday night and Thursday morning which should
allow for the coldest lows of the week, with 10 below zero a
possibility for northern Wyoming and the eastern Plains.

Temperatures remain quite cold through Friday as the next upper-
level system approaches from the west. A stream of moisture
begins to make its way into the Absarokas and Crazies by Thursday
night and Friday morning. Scattered snow showers and accumulations
of an inch or two possible for the I-90 corridor from Livingston
to Columbus during this time frame. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Unsettled long term forecast with multiple systems potentially
impacting the area. Moist southwest flow should bring periods of
snow to the mountains on Friday. Then, late Friday night into
Saturday, a better-defined shortwave trough as shown by the GFS
moves across the area. However, the quick movement of the system
in the fast flow combined with lack of deep upslope should limit
accumulations to light amounts.

Guidance has now backed off a bit with temperatures
into the weekend so have nudged temperatures down some from the
previous forecast. Depending on how guidance trends, current
forecast temperatures may need to go even lower.

Models keep the area under a northwest flow on Sunday with some
snow showers lingering over the area. Models then bring another
arctic front southward over the area late Sunday night into Monday
(exact timing is difficult this far out). This front could bring a
period of light snow followed by more arctic air. Despite several
disturbances expected to cross the region during the period, no
widespread heavy snowfalls are expected at this time. Temperatures
should stay below normal throughout the period. RMS/Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

Most of region will see VFR conditions. Periods of MVFR ceilings
will linger over Carter and Fallon counties through the day and
into the evening. borsum

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 006 906/008 001/015 007/015 007/023 007/017 003/013
    1/B 10/U    23/J    54/J    22/J    33/J    22/J
LVM 006 909/011 007/030 020/026 018/028 014/025 012/016
    1/B 10/B    43/J    54/J    32/J    33/J    23/J
HDN 006 908/010 000/018 007/017 003/022 004/016 001/013
    1/B 10/U    12/J    44/J    22/J    33/J    22/J
MLS 008 907/004 904/010 002/008 903/013 901/010 904/007
    1/E 10/U    02/J    44/J    22/J    32/J    22/J
4BQ 005 911/008 904/015 006/015 901/023 002/018 000/011
    1/E 10/U    01/E    24/J    22/J    22/J    21/B
BHK 005 912/001 909/005 901/007 904/011 903/008 905/005
    1/E 10/B    01/E    35/J    12/J    22/J    21/B
SHR 005 908/011 002/023 011/020 005/026 005/019 005/014
    1/B 10/U    11/B    23/J    21/B    22/J    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Chill Advisory in effect until 11 AM MST Thursday FOR
      ZONES 33-37.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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