Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272116
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
216 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING OR DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
MINOR...MAINLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND FOR SOME LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS
A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
SUNDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND EARLY MARCH SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO FREEZING.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL APPEARS ON TAP TO HELP DRIVE
MONDAY TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THAT SAID...LATEST RUNS
ARE TRENDING THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CUT OFF THAT WARMUP. KEPT
GOING TEMPS IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
FURTHER TIMING ISSUES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WILL BE RECORDED EARLY IN THE DAY IF NOT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP IN
RETURN OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 006/020 006/030 017/039 008/010 903/025 015/044 029/050
    22/S    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 002/019 901/029 015/038 004/011 909/026 015/043 031/046
    43/S    21/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 008/024 004/033 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/044 025/050
    22/S    01/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 005/021 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/043 026/048
    01/E    12/J    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 007/019 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/045 027/051
    11/B    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 002/019 004/025 010/036 006/012 903/018 006/040 024/046
    01/B    12/J    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 003/018 001/027 006/034 007/007 910/018 007/044 024/047
    13/S    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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