Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 191427
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
927 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will build east across the southern
United States today and eventually move off the east coast.  The
high will extend a ridge north across the local area today through
Sunday.  A deepening low pressure will move northeast out of the
Oklahoma Panhandle to the western Great Lakes by Monday evening
forcing a cold front east across the local area Monday night. High
pressure will build into the area from the west through the middle
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Nudged temps up a tad but otherwise no changes. It won`t feel
much warmer today than Thursday as any gain in temps will be
offset by stiff southerly winds.

Previous Discussion...

Nearly zonal flow will occur across much of the United States today
and tonight.  A digging trough and associated low pressure system
will move east into the western United States tonight and to the
Rockies by Sunday.  This feature will begin to amplify a broad ridge
over the eastern United States through this forecast period.  In
response to the ridging in the east, a surface high pressure will
become the dominant weather feature across the entire eastern United
States through Saturday.  As the high moves east across the southern
tier states, a return south to southwest flow will persist through
the period.  Mid level warm advection to 10 degrees C is expected by
tonight. However, mid level cooling at 850 mb will drop temperatures
back to around 4 to 6 degrees C tonight with further cooling
Saturday.

The main issue with this forecast will be temperatures. Temperatures
are not expected to be as warm as previously thought in the previous
model runs for Saturday.  As 850 mb temperatures cool back down,
temperatures will stay in the 30s for highs. Todays highs will be
warmer than yesterday with the low and mid level warm advection
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Shallow moisture advection will continue Saturday night through
Sunday with a prolonged period of southwest flow on the back side of
surface high pressure over the southeastern states. Isentropic
ascent below 4K feet on Saturday night and Sunday will make drizzle
with light qpf amounts the most likely weather type and adjusted the
forecast accordingly. Given the increasing cloud field and low level
moisture, also raised min temperatures a couple degrees on Saturday
night into the lower 30s. Temperatures could dip below freezing in a
few locations early but should come up as any drizzle begins so not
expecting freezing drizzle to be an issue. Although temperatures
will continue to warm on Sunday, the warming will be suppressed by
overcast skies and increasing moisture.

Low pressure is still forecast to track out of the Plains on Monday,
continuing northeast across the central Great Lakes through Tuesday.
The ECMWF remains on the slower side of the model guidance with this
system with the GFS continuing to slow and trend in this direction.
Scattered showers will be on the increase by Sunday night as deeper
moisture and shortwave energy approaches the region in advance of
the upper level low curling northeast out of the Plains. Lowered
pops on Monday morning with best chances for rain coming Monday
afternoon into Monday night ahead of the cold front wrapping in from
the west. QPF with this system still appears to be below a half inch
for most areas. Much of the area will be near 50 degrees on Monday
ahead of the front which should melt the remainder of the snow. Have
also slowed down the transition to snow Monday night into Tuesday as
the boundary layer takes some time to cool back down.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level low pulls away to the northeast Tuesday night with
another shortwave approaching from the northwest on Wednesday.
Precipitation type will have changed over to all snow by Tuesday
night with snow showers lingering in the snowbelt into Wednesday
before tapering off. The cool down will be short lived with warm
advection and a ridge building in aloft already from Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Mainly some high clouds will slide through the area but should
remain thin and scattered. Main issue will be winds at the
surface at 12 to 15 knots with higher gusts expected.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds of 15-20 knots today will increase to 20-25 knots
overnight as low pressure passes north of the lakes. Southerly winds
will decrease Saturday night into Sunday then increase out of the
southwest late Monday as a cold front wraps in from the southwest.
The flow will finally shift around to the west as low pressure
departs to the east Tuesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...KEC


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