Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 300803
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHOWER THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING WAS OVER THE LAKE AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY AS WE WAIT FOR A THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER NW OH AND POSSIBLY OVER NW PA AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP
THROUGH WESTERN PA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE
MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.