Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 070216
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1016 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT AND CROSSES NORTHERN OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES A SLOW MOVE TO THE EAST AND WAS
ABOUT TO MOVE INTO SW PA AS OF 02Z. STILL A BIT OF LIFT ON ITS NE
SIDE WITH A FEW DISSIPATING SHOWERS JUST TOUCHING EASTERN
CRAWFORD COUNTY PA. BELIEVE THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT SO
WILL NOT MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

LOCATIONS THAT HAD RAIN THIS EVENING HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. HAVE PLACED THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH SUNRISE. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS GETTING CLOSE TO NW
OHIO NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO DURING THE MORNING ALTHOUGH EXPECTING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING. EXPECTING
MID AND HIGH CLOUD TO PUSH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THAT MAY HELP
TO LIMIT INSTABILITY. STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FILL IN AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY.
HIGHS WILL APPROACH MID-80S IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT.

STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE BREAK IN
PRECIP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS SHOW NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DID RAISE POPS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A MORE ORGANIZED WAVE PUSHES THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND RAISED
POPS IN THE FORECAST TO 50-60 PERCENT. IF TIMING HOLDS...THESE WILL
NEED TO BE RAISED FARTHER. HOPEFULLY THE WARM FRONT IS NOT DRAPED
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR WE MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE AREA FRI
THRU MON WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL MEAN
ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF A WET PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAIN EVERY DAY. THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE WARM BY THE
WEEKEND BUT PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOWS AT NIGHT WILL
NOT BE COOL EITHER AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS PROVIDE A BUFFER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED IN THE EAST
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EACH OF
THE STORMS CAUSING NEW ONES TO DEVELOP. EXPECTING POSSIBLE FOG TO
DEVELOP WHERE THE SHOWERS OCCURRED AND ADDED MVFR FOG IN THOSE
AREAS. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS START TO PICK UP A BIT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS TOMORROW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO
SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
BE DROPPING WITH TIME TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THRU SAT IN ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SW FOR TUE AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE
EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH WHILE ALSO DIMINISHING TO
MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
THEN SHOULD DRIFT BACK AROUND THE LAKE THU THRU SAT WHILE WEAK WAVES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES SO THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY RUN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS


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