Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230823
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
423 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE.
FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY IN CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN COUNTIES
BUT HAVE SEEN A FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S SO WILL
HOLD ONTO THE HEADLINES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20 POP LATE AS SOME MOISTURE
STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE
FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT
POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE
ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD. VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KERI AND THEN
KCLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK





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