Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
407 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS SURE LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF THE PAST TWO WEEKENDS. THERE WAS
A HEALTHY MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST
MODELS HAVE THIS COMPLEX LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WAS TRANSPORTING HIGHER THETA-E
AIR NORTHWEST. THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR
THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE
HAIL. BUT THE GREATEST THREAT IS PROBABLY LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS GETTING TO A POINT WHERE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE SOME LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES, THE IMPACT WOULD
LIKELY BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. BUT, IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY, IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY THIS
AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE SEVERE THREAT WORDING IN THE
GRIDS. WITH THE "ALMOST" MERIDIONAL FLOW TONIGHT, THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST, NORTH AND EAST OF MY FORECAST
AREA. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD RETURN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR NORTHWARD.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH
EJECTING S/WV THROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE,
WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE DDC CWA. THE NAM/GFS MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES A BETTER SIGNAL. THE NAM RATHER INDICATES LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TERRAIN STORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING EAST PERHAPS
INTO  OUR FAR WESTER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY FOR
SUNDAY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS PATTERN. A STEADY BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ENABLES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION
EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
INTO THE AREA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS
POPS BETWEEN 15 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
MORE SEASONAL IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER WITH THE CONTINUED WET
PATTERN, CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS SURGING BACK NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST PROBLEMS SURROUND THE CEILING HEIGHTS AND
THE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN SFC VISIBILITY AS THE MOISTURE MOVES BACK.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NIGHT AS FAR AS CONTINUED
FIGHT TO FORECAST CEILING HEIGHTS AND ESPECIALLY SFC
VISIBILITIES. LATER THIS MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE, THE ISSUE TURNS
TO CONVECTION. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS APPEAR
TO BE CORRECT SO FAR WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  60  76  58 /  80  20  30  20
GCK  66  56  79  53 /  80  20  30  30
EHA  74  53  78  52 /  80  10  10  10
LBL  68  57  79  55 /  80  20  20  20
HYS  64  59  75  58 /  80  30  30  30
P28  66  62  76  61 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HUTTON


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