Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS63 KDDC 291105
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

The next couple of days will be highly influenced by Great Plains
surface high, with light easterly surface winds across the area. The
NAM hints at the possibility of a little radiation fog
development where the winds go light in central Kansas early this
morning, however this is probably not likely given the current
surface dew point spreads. A cooler airmass will also lead to
highs generally in the low to mid 70s over most of the area Today.
Upper 70`s is more possible on the higher terrain, say from
Johnson to Elkhart.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Friday will be generally a similar day to Today with pleasant 70s
and generally light winds from the southeast. Models warm
temperatures slightly into the mid and upper 70s, even to around
80 in the far west with a better surface pressure gradient and
nearly breezy south winds. The warming trend continues through
Saturday before the next chance for showers or thunderstorms
returns with the models indicate a weak impulse moving through the
flow with potential to help realize convective available
potential energy. A much stronger forcing lift mechanism returns
Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a deep Pacific trough with
embedded closed upper low swings through the northern High Plains.
Precipitation probabilities are best across central Kansas during
this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Light winds this morning will become east southeast this afternoon
and gradually increase to near 10 knots by late day as a surface
ridge axis crosses central and eastern Kansas. Model soundings
indicating only an increase in high level moisture will occur late
today and early tonight so VFR conditions are expected. Will
however have to monitor the potential for fog along and east of
highway 283 after 09z given the potential for clear to mostly
clear conditions, surface dew points forecast to be rising into
the mid 40s by 12z Friday along with a light southeasterly wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  47  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  73  48  76  51 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  77  49  81  53 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  74  49  78  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  69  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
P28  70  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.