Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 071720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1120 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

At 12z Sunday a 500mb ridge axis was extended north from the
Coast of California to western British Columbia. A northwest flow
was evident across the Central United States and embedded in this
northwest flow was an upper level trough that was located over the
Northern Plains. This upper level trough was also associated with
the left exit region of a 250mb jet that stretched from western
Nebraska to north central Montana. A surface cold front at 12z
Sunday extended from the panhandle of Texas to northwest Missouri.
850mb temperatures north of this cold front ranged from +4C at
Dodge City to +1C at North Platte. Rapid City reported at 850mb
temperature of -2c.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The biggest challenge will be wind speed magnitude today. An
intense storm system in the larger scale northwest flow pattern
will dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Midwest
region today. The 800-700mb layer height gradient will increase
quite a bit this afternoon between the the trough axis across Iowa
and an upper high over the Desert Southwest/California. 00z GFS
model shows mean 800-700mb winds increasing from 40-45 knots at
15z across west-central KS to 60-70 knots by 21z! While we will
not mix to this pressure level, we will still see plenty of
momentum within the mixed layer this afternoon supporting surface
winds around 30 knots sustained across portions of west central
KS...and in the 25-30 knot range over much of the rest of west
central and southwest Kansas. In the grids, the WRF-ARW 10-meter
winds match the GFS kinematics fairly well, so the official wind
forecast will reflect very much the WRF-ARW winds with even a bit
of a bump up from that a few knots. As far as temperatures go,
much of this colder airmass coming in behind this trough/front
passage will be downslope modified, so it will not impact
temperatures much at all.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The intense lower-mid tropospheric pressure gradient will persist
across western/central KS on Monday with similar winds forecast as
Sunday over the same general areas. We will finally see the
gradient relax some by Tuesday with slightly warmer downslope air
beginning to move in. Far southwest KS will see the greatest
benefit from the downslope component with highs Tuesday in the
lower 60s from Elkhart to Liberal, whereas mid to upper 40s are
forecast up around Hays. This southwest to northeast temperature
gradient will persist through the week as we remain in a northwest
flow regime. By late in the week, the forecast becomes a bit more
problematic as any wiggle in the northwest flow pattern will bring
some colder in from the northeast (quasi-stationary backdoor cold
front). We could see some impressive temperature gradients across
Kansas late in the week going into the weekend with far southwest
Kansas seeing upper 60s to lower 70s whereas portions of
northern/central KS remain in the 30s and 40s. We will need to see
a breakdown of the northwest flow pattern before we see any
meaningful chances for precipitation, which wouldn`t be until
14-15 February at the earliest.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Gusty northwest winds will range from 20 to near 25 knots this
afternoon based the mean mixed down winds from the RAP and GFS
this afternoon. The strongest afternoon winds will be in the Hays
area through 00z Monday. These gusty northwest winds will then
fall back into the 15 to 20 knot range after sunset. Mid to high
level clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as an upper
level disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  25  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  22  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  25  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  25  37  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  55  28  44  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert


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