Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

...Updated Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 142 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

A weak disturbance will pass on Sunday, producing a period of
middle and high clouds. Otherwise, expect milder temperatures and
light winds. Windy and warmer weather is expected Monday, with a
significant risk of wildfires. Dry weather will continue to
prevail this week, with no drought relief expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Much drier air has taken control across SW KS tonight, with
dewpoints down into the single digits at places. This has
resulted in a clear sky, with a weak pressure gradient delivering
weak winds. Strong radiational cooling over the dry ground will
allow temperatures to fall well below guidance through Sunday
morning, well down into the teens across the NW 1/2 of the CWA.

Sunday...Light winds and milder. A weak moisture-starved shortwave
will traverse SW KS during the daylight hours, producing a period
of broken/overcast mid/high clouds. Subsidence behind the
departing shortwave will arrive by sunset, with a rapidly
clearing sky. Despite the passage of the shortwave and the
associated clouds, temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer
than Saturday, in the lower to mid 50s. Pressure gradients will be
weak and nondescript, resulting in light and variable winds
generally less than 15 mph.

Sunday night/Monday morning...Clear, with lows ranging from mid
teens NW to mid 20s SE.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 110 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Dry weather will continue to prevail well into March, with no
drought relief expected. As the winds of early spring begin to
blow across Kansas, focus will be on wildfire danger each windy
afternoon. Dormant grasses remain standing tall after a lack of
snow this winter to knock them down, leaving us vulnerable to
wildfires until rain or snow returns.

Monday...Windy and warmer with fire danger. Zonal flow aloft in
the morning become SWly in the afternoon, with a strong pressure
gradient producing strong south winds during the day. Winds will
average 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph. Warmer temperatures in
the 60-65 range will drive relative humidity below 20%, resulting
in wildfire danger.

Tuesday...Still mild, in the 60s, but with less fire danger as
winds will be reduced. Also, a fleeting surge of moisture will
enter the SE 1/2 of SW KS, with dewpoints climbing into the 30s
(even 40s far SE). Mentioned a few rain showers across the far
SE zones Tuesday afternoon/evening. Most of us will see nothing.

Models are still trying to figure out what to do with the expected
midweek system. 00z ECMWF places a strong 546 dm closed low in
Arizona Wednesday morning, then weakens is rapidly into a
positively-tilted open wave as it arrives quickly onto the plains
Wednesday evening. With the system weakening, and the progressive
nature of the system, certainly can`t get excited about meaningful
precipitation in SW Kansas. The best opportunity for a passing
rain shower would be again across the SE zones Wednesday
afternoon/evening as 00z GFS/ECMWF suggest. Could very easily end
up being only virga and/or sprinkles, and given the way this
winter has gone, left forecast dry (pop grids <15%).

Thursday...Back to broad ridging with sunny, dry weather for the
first day of March (coming in like a lamb). Afternoon temperatures
in the 50s.

Friday and Saturday...A strong warming trend is expected, at least
into the 60s, with some lower 70s likely. With SW flow returning
aloft, lee troughing and strong south winds will return. As such,
wildfire danger will ramp up again each day, with the strongest
south winds expected Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Good flying weather expected through this TAF cycle, with light
and variable winds (10 kts or less). A weak passing shortwave will
produce a period of broken/overcast mid layer clouds for a few
hours today, but nothing else. Subsidence behind the departing
shortwave will spread SKC back to all airports by 00z Monday.
Strong south winds are expected at all airports after 15z Monday,
averaging 25-35 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

A fire weather watch remains in effect for the NW 2/3 of SW Kansas
on Monday. Warmer temperatures in the lower to mid 60s will drive
relative humidity down to the 13-20% range. South winds will gust
near 40 mph during peak heating, resulting in an enhanced risk of
wildfire spread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  23  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  52  20  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  20  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  19  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  52  23  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  23  63  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>078-084>087.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner


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