Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 311614
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1114 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED NEAR DALLAS...WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ROUGHLY NEAR A WACO TO
LLANO TO LANGTRY LINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE
CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOST MODELS INITIATING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AROUND
20Z...AS IT REACHES A ROUGH LINE FROM GIDDINGS TO AUSTIN TO
BOERNE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY/GRADUALLY PROGRESS
SOUTH...INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEING ENHANCED BY PEAK HEATING AND BACKING SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH SEA-BREEZE. MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/HWY 90
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PWATS FORECAST 2-2.25 INCHES
POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LOADING AND
A FEW STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS INCLUDED IN THE HWO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AND STALL ON FRIDAY. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA CAN BE
EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30
FOR THE TAF SITES WITH BEST TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING BETWEEN 31/21Z AND 01/03Z. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE UPDATES AT OTHER TIMES. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR SKIES
BY LATE MORNING AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. SLY WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
WILL SHIFT TO NLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND
REACH THE HILL COUNTRY AROUND NOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
THE FROPA CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTHWARD DURING PEAK HEATING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT. WEAK LIFT AROUND
850HPA IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS
WELL.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HIGHWAY 90. NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO A LOWER CHANCE FOR RAIN.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN CWA
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND GREATER CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE FURTHER...AND WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHIP AWAY AT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR FAR SRN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO FLARE UP ON SUNDAY GENERALLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. BY
MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS REMAINS PARKED IN
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
STABILITY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

GOOD MOISTURE BELOW 700HPA...CHANCES FOR RAIN...AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FEELING
MORE LIKE MID-JUNE THAN EARLY AUGUST. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  73  92  71  92 /  30  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  95  70  92  68  91 /  40  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     97  72  94  70  93 /  50  30  30  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  71  90  69  90 /  20  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  78  95  77  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  71  90  70  90 /  20  20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  72  94  72  94 /  40  40  30  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        96  73  93  69  92 /  50  30  20  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  75  92  72  91 /  50  40  30  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       96  76  93  74  92 /  50  40  30  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           97  75  94  73  93 /  50  40  30  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





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