Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 301724
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1224 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING MVFR AND
PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO THE AREA IN THE MORNING AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT EXACT CONFIDENCE OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL AREAS. WE COULD
SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 NEAR A COLD FRONT AND A COASTAL TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD A
DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. FINALLY...DEW
POINTS...WINDS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND FOR THE MOMENT TERMINALS
ARE ALL VFR. EXPECTING CIG TO LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. THEY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AUSTIN AND
SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IH THE TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE BECAUSE
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS LESSENED. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH WILLIAMSON...
BASTROP...CALDWELL...AND GONZALES COUNTIES. PARTS OF THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR WIND. SO THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM CO TO
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THIS FLOW WAS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO JUNCTION TO
DEL RIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR DALLAS TO COMANCHE TO
MIDLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE A LITTLE
COMPLICATED...BUT REMAIN A TROUGH AND KEEP THE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER TEXAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE AND SHOULD BE HALF WAY THROUGH OUR CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MEXICO AND THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT
THE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA TUESDAY. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
WILL BECOME DOMINANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  65  81  61  72 /  -   10  20  50  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  64  80  63  73 /  -   20  30  50  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  66  81  64  73 /  -   10  30  50  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  61  78  58  69 /  -   10  20  50  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  68  85  64  74 /  -   10  30  60  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  62  79  60  70 /  -   10  20  50  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  67  83  65  75 /  -   10  30  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  80  63  72 /  -   10  30  50  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  69  82  67  75 /  20  20  40  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  66  81  64  73 /  -   10  30  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  69  83  66  75 /  -   10  30  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



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