Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 222037
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL NORTHEAST FROM THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURROS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REACHING THE GROUND AT DRT. POPS ARE THUS
ARTIFICIALLY LOW TO REFLECT THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW
WEAKENING LIFT AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE EXTRA CLOUDS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO LEAVE WARMER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE GFS WHICH HAS
BACKTRACKED ON THE IDEA OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO POOL
TOGETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY SHOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  62  86  64 /  -   10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  86  58 /  -   10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  60  88  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  60  85  61 /  10  10  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  62  86  63 /  30  10   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  81  60  85  62 /  -   10  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  58  88  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  84  59  87  60 /  -   10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  83  58  87  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  86  62  89  63 /  -   10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





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