Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 240011 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
611 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at area TAF sites through the forecast
period. Winds will begin to decrease over the next 1-2 hours across
the region. Winds will also transition from southwest to south along
the I-35 corridor, with winds taking on more of an easterly component
at DRT. Winds will then increase tomorrow after 16Z along the I-35
corridor, while taking on a more south-southwesterly direction. Winds
out at DRT should maintain more of an easterly component as a weak
surface trough develops to the west of the Rio Grande.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday)...

Well above normal temperatures today and even warmer readings are
expected Tuesday with record highs possible for Austin. Continued
clear and dry conditions expected.

A low amplitude shortwave ridge has built overtop of South-Central
Texas today that will break down tomorrow as deeper SW flow develops.
We are running about 10 degrees above normal this afternoon as west
flow in the 925-700mb occurs. A developing Western Coast trough will
shift SE and become stretched from the central plains to northern
Baja Mexico. Stronger SW flow will develop Tuesday and advect warmer
925-850mb airmass from Mexico over the region. BUFR soundings suggest
4-7C warming that will support a solid increase in surface
temperatures tomorrow. MOS guidance was underdone today and feel
that is the case for tomorrow as well. Highs reaching the upper 70s
to the upper 80s are likely and will rival many records. KAUS looks
to have the best shot at breaking a record with KSAT being within
1-3F degrees. Del Rio record will be out of reach which stands in
the upper 80s.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

No major highlights of impactful weather through the entire long
term period outside of a few cold front passages on Wednesday and
again Saturday. Rain chances will remain low with these frontal
passages with the best chances confined to the Rio Grande Plains
Saturday.

The elongated and stretched longwave trough across the Central Plains
into the desert SW will remain north of the region with little to no
forcing crossing the area. Enough equatorward momentum associated
with the trough will shift a weak pacific front through the region
early Wednesday morning. As the base of the trough swings across
late Wednesday night, continued and stronger CAA will occur and bring
lower 20 dewpoints into the region. This will likely lead to a light
freeze across the the Hill Country. A general slow warm up will
occur through the end of the week and Saturday with light return flow
occurring. Return flow will best across the Rio Grande Plains and
this is where the best rain chances (20-30%) will be Saturday. Over
the weekend, a west to east trough axis will shift through the region
and bring another cool and dry front through. The mid and upper-
level low will remain south of the region with little impact to the
region into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              52  82  50  67  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  49  82  50  67  37 /   0   0  10  -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     48  82  51  68  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            49  81  45  62  34 /   0   0  -    0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           49  83  48  67  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        50  80  47  64  35 /   0   0  -    0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             47  85  49  71  37 /   0   0  -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        48  81  51  68  37 /   0   0  10  -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   51  82  54  67  39 /   0   0  20  -    0
San Antonio Intl Airport       50  83  52  69  39 /   0   0  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           49  84  53  70  40 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...05
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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