Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 271148
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ONLY SAT REACHED IFR THIS MORNING AND ALL THE OTHER TERMINALS ARE
MVFR. CIGS SHOULD STAY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE FIRST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF SSF DROPPING TO IFR.
THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND THERE IS CHANCE OF THESE AT AUS. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY PRECIP IN THE TAF AND ANY SHOWER THAT MOVES OVER THE
TERMINAL WILL NOT CHANGE THE FLYING CATEGORY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY AROUND NOON AT ALL AIRPORTS. LOOKING FOR A REPEAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ALL TERMINALS GOING MVFR AND THE AUSTIN AND
SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS DROPPING TO IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN I35 CORRIDOR
IN MAINLY WILLIAMSON...LEE...AND FAYETTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING
PRODUCING SOME MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREA SOUNDINGS
WERE SHOWING STABILIZATION AND MID LEVEL WARMING WHICH HAS
EFFECTIVELY LIMITED THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THESE STORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF...THIS ENERGY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST
BRUSHING THE EASTERNMOST ZONES THROUGH MID DAY. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS LOW.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HI RES MODELS ALL HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS RATHER POORLY AS NONE OF THEM ADEQUATELY CAPTURED
THE OVERNIGHT MCS. SO NOT MUCH STOCK WAS PUT INTO THEIR
DEPICTIONS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR A MORE
ISOLATED STORM THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATED MORE MINOR SHORTWAVE PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH ONE UP NEAR FORT WORTH AND YET ANOTHER OVER THE BIG
BEND. WITH THE DRY LINE RECEDING WESTWARD IN THE MODELS...THINK
OUTFLOWS WILL BE THE DECIDER FOR CI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE
SUCH OUTFLOW WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS MORNING AND AM
A BIT CONCERNED SOME DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG IT TODAY SO
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OUT THERE AS WELL.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW MEXICAN
ROCKIES AND INTERACT WITH THE DRYLINE OUT WEST TO DEVELOP A MORE
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SEVERE...COULD ORGANIZE INTO A STRONG LINE OF
STORMS THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.6-1.7 RANGE...THINK
THESE COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINER. GOOD NEWS IS THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE LOSING INTENSITY AS
IT DISPLACES FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MUCH LESS ACTIVE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WHEN COMPARED TO...WELL...MAY. THE
JUNE 1 ECMWF SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND KEEPS THE UPPER JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OVER THE LAST MONTH...LOOKS MUCH
LESS LIKELY.

WE AS METEOROLOGISTS ENJOY INTERESTING PATTERNS AND CHALLENGING
FORECASTS TO A DEGREE. BUT WE WILL BE JOINING YOU IN A COLLECTIVE
HALLELUJAH IF THINGS ARE MORE BENIGN FOR THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
LAST MONTH AND ESPECIALLY THE LAST WEEKEND. LUCKILY THAT SEEMS TO
BE THE CASE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  71  86  71  84 /  30  20  30  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  70  86  71  84 /  30  20  30  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  73  87  72  85 /  20  20  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  70  84  68  82 /  30  30  30  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  74  88  68  87 /  30  30  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  71  85  70  84 /  30  30  30  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  73  87  69  85 /  20  20  40  40  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  72  85  71  83 /  20  20  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   88  73  87  73  85 /  30  20  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  74  86  72  85 /  20  20  30  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  74  87  73  85 /  20  20  30  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3


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