Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 192343
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
543 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/
Patchy drizzle will continue to impact SAT for another hour or so
with intermittent light rain showers continuing for 2-4 more hours
around AUS. Vsbys and cigs may fluctuate mostly within the ifr range
and start lowering toward lifr late this evening. Vlifr conditions
are expected to develop at some point in the late evening or early
morning hours. Out west, the airmass is well mixed over DRT, and low
cigs and vsbys should be delayed until well after midnight. S/SSW
winds should pickup by midday and mix out the shallow moisture
inversion. Lighter winds are forecast to decouple Saturday evening to
return ifr or lower cigs and vsbys.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
An area of showers along with some isolated thunderstorms continues
across portions of south central Texas this afternoon. Most of the
activity is along and east of I-35 and should not expand westward
through this evening and tonight given better moisture will be found
to our east. Thunderstorm chances remain favored near the coastal
plains and we have mentioned isolated thunderstorms in the forecast
for a few more hours this afternoon across southern Lavaca and DeWitt
county. As peak heating decreases, thunderstorm chances will also
decrease. We do expect fog to become widespread across all of south
central Texas by late evening. Several of the hi-res models show some
dense fog is also possible. Confidence is not yet high enough to go
with a dense fog advisory, but later shifts will need to monitor
carefully. Mid-level ridging temporarily builds over the area on
Saturday allowing most areas to dry out and warm up. Highs will be in
the mid 60s to lower 70s for most areas. The only chance for rain
will be confined to the Highway 77 corridor. Southerly flow in the
low-levels begins to increase Saturday night in response to an upper
low moving in from the west. This should be enough to generate some
light showers and patchy fog for a good portion of the region
Saturday night.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The above mentioned upper low continues to move toward the region on
Sunday. In addition, a Pacific front will move in from the west
during the afternoon and evening hours. We expect an increase in
rain chances for most areas on Sunday, with some thunderstorms
possible during the afternoon and evening along and east of Highway
281. As the Pacific cold front moves through, rain chances will
quickly decrease Sunday night. Dry weather along with an increase in
fire weather concerns is in store on Monday behind the front. Please
see the below fire weather section for more information.

Another upper level trough axis will move into central Texas during
the mid to late portion of next week. There is some disagreement
among the operational models on the strength and timing of this
front. For now, we will not mention any precipitation chances, except
across the coastal plains Thursday night. Rain chances may spread
north across the region next Friday, but confidence is low and we
will only mention a 20% chance for now.

FIRE WEATHER...
We should see minimum humidities drop to near 15% along the Rio
Grande to near 30% across the coastal plains Monday afternoon. As of
now, it looks like our winds should be stronger in the morning, then
decrease in the afternoon when humidities reach their lowest. We
will continue to mention elevated fire weather conditions in the
forecast for areas generally along and west of Highway 281.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              45  72  58  73  44 /  20   0  20  50  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  44  71  57  74  44 /  20   0  20  50  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     43  71  56  74  44 /  20   0  20  50  20
Burnet Muni Airport            42  73  52  72  39 /  10   0  20  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           38  68  47  72  40 /   0   0  10  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        44  71  55  72  42 /  20   0  20  50  20
Hondo Muni Airport             40  71  51  75  41 /   0   0  20  30  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        44  70  56  74  44 /  20   0  20  50  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   48  70  60  74  46 /  50  20  20  60  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       44  71  56  74  45 /  10   0  20  40  10
Stinson Muni Airport           43  71  56  74  46 /  -    0  20  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...04
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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