Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 170847
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS WITH
A LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS DUE TO A FAVORABLE JET POSITION ENHANCING LIFT.
AS THE TROUGH AND JET MOVE EAST OF TEXAS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES ON BRIEF DRYING ALOFT.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS TODAY WARMING TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MIDWAY BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND
HAWAII WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND SHOVING THE UPPER RIDGE
BACK SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...WEAK SHEAR AND ENHANCED BUOYANCY SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS COMING OFF THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE TROUGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. HOWEVER...WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME AS 00Z MODELS RUNS SHOWING THIS FOR FIRST
TIME. WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG CAP OF WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND NO RAIN CHANCES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  58  79  57  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  56  79  56  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  57  81  57  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  56  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  62  82  64  82 /  -   10  10  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  56  78  57  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             78  59  83  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  56  80  57  80 /  20  20  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  57  80  56  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  59  81  58  81 /  20  20  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  60  82  59  82 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





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