Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 281727 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
ONLY CONCERN FOR THIS AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
LONGER TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE 30-HOUR TAF SITES IS INDICATING WINDS
AFTER 29/16Z AT 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS SECTIONS ARE
HINTING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING
AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE ON THE RISE...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE
BKN CIGS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT AT KSSF/KSAT/KAUS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRATO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE... /LOWERED RH...RAISED WIND/
MIDDAY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO TRACK DEW POINTS THAT WERE FALLING
AWAY FROM INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS. SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND
MIXING WAS ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LOWER DAYTIME RH
VALUES BY 5 PERCENT OR MORE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE
INCREASING WIND/LOWERING RH TRENDS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WILL FACTOR IN SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURNING
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  80  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  88  61  83  65 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  81  61  77  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  82  60  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  82  63  80  62 /   0   0  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       54  82  61  80  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           53  83  61  81  62 /   0   0  -   20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12



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