Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 020003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
603 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
GUSTY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND WILL TOP OUT
AT AROUND 27 KNOTS ON OCCASION THROUGH AROUND 08Z. MORE STEADY
WINDS SHOULD FINISH OUT THE MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS BY EVENING.
NO CIGS BELOW 3000 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
MID LEVEL CIGS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME MID LEVEL
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM THE SW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
AREA RADARS ARE DEPICTING A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS.
THIS LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPECTED TO REACH THE
HILL COUNTRY AROUND 3 PM AND BETWEEN 5 AND 6 ALONG INTERSTATE 35.
A COOL AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO
30 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10 MPH OR LESS. THE COOL
AIRMASS WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 WITH LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR MONDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE...HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW AND MID 50S. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP FOR SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
BAJA PENINSULA WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE FASTEST SOLUTION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND NAM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE WITHIN
TOLERANCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING TO NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED ONE HALF INCH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              36  51  37  54  44 /  -   -   -   30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  35  50  34  53  41 /  -   -   -   40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     38  52  37  52  42 /  -   -   10  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  49  34  54  42 /  -   -    0  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           41  57  41  52  42 /  -   -   10  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        33  49  34  54  42 /  -   -    0  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             38  56  38  51  41 /  -   -   10  50  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  51  36  52  42 /  -   -   -   40  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   37  51  37  54  45 /  -   -   -   40  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       39  54  39  52  43 /  -   -   10  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           40  55  39  52  43 /  -   -   10  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






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