Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
FXUS64 KEWX 221550 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1050 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Weather forecast package is on track for the rest of the first
period based on observations and satellite data. High clouds will
be moving into much of the area this afternoon as upper level
moisture pushes from northeast Mexico. Light southerly winds will
increase 8 to 10 mph along the I-35 corridor and about 10 to 15
mph across the Rio Grande this afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/
AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
VFR expected throughout the majority of the TAF period. KAUS has
been seeing intermittent BR off and on throughout the overnight
but should avoid falling below 6SM.
Otherwise, expecting some MVFR cigs to develop overnight tonight
near KSAT/KSSF as winds shift back to the south today. Included
the expected trends in the 30 hour TAF period for KSAT. Coverage
should be less extensive for KAUS so only included SCT. However,
MVFR BR will be possible around daybreak.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Surface observations show brief fog in isolated low lying/river
valley spots due to low T/DP spreads when winds become calm, then
fog dissipates with any winds. This will continue through around
sunrise. However, Will not mention fog as too isolated and brief.
Otherwise, expect another day of below normal high temperatures
today in spite of sunny skies. Ridging at the surface and aloft
drifts off to the east today through Sunday as a weak mid level
trough approaches from Mexico. Southerly flow returns along with
increasing moisture later today into Sunday. Patches of fog and
stratus are possible early Sunday morning with stratocumulus layer
forming during the day. Warming trend begins on Sunday with high
temperatures near to slightly above normal.
LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
The trough from Mexico moves across Texas early Monday, then a
couple of others move across the Plains states Tuesday and late
Wednesday. Models have struggled on development of rain with any
of these features due to moisture levels. The GFS remains the most
bullish on mainly light QPF due to PWs near seasonal normal levels
while other models show little or no QPF due to PWs being below
seasonal normal levels. Model consensus and ensemble means are
reasonable with 10s for POPs. Have removed POPs where mentioned
for Tuesday. However, cannot rule an isolated shower or patch of
morning drizzle Monday through Wednesday due to weak diffluence
aloft. In the wake of late Wednesday`s trough, ridging at the
surface and aloft builds into Texas for Thursday and Friday. The
only impact is slightly cooler low temperatures due to lower
dewpoints. Otherwise, above normal temperatures are expected for
the entire week. It appears the next chances of rain will wait
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 80 56 83 65 85 / 0 0 0 - 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 79 52 83 63 84 / 0 0 0 - 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 80 54 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 - 10
Burnet Muni Airport 77 53 79 62 82 / 0 0 0 - 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 80 58 82 64 84 / 0 0 - - 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 79 53 81 62 83 / 0 0 0 - 10
Hondo Muni Airport 81 53 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 - 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 78 53 82 63 83 / 0 0 0 - 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 79 55 83 65 85 / 0 0 0 - 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 79 57 82 66 84 / 0 0 0 - 10
Stinson Muni Airport 81 56 84 66 86 / 0 0 0 - 10
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway